Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GGEM looks very similar to precip orientation/distribution as the gfs/rgem. I'm officially tossing the nam. Not that I didn't do it the second I didn't like what it showed. A general 4-6" through the 95 corridor/cities before the column is suspicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 You have to go down to around augusta georgia to find an above freezing temperature. Even with southerly winds there isn't much warm air down south to be advected. Hell there are quite a few 33 degree readings in Florida. Here's hoping for a miracle on Sunday, hopefully I can get clouds and drizzly and 35, but I know where I live. I'm in TROPICAL East Virginia. There's a reason our population is increasing by 10 percent year over year, mild winters. Spring is gonna make a brief visit to Dale City on Sunday, just long enough to sweep away all my snow lol. Then, enter the COLD again lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I took a quick, rough look at the heat capacity of snow vs average soil vs water and it looks like we need a good bit of rain (more than an inch at predicted temperatures) to melt the predicted snow pack plus warm the ground enough to bring it above freezing at the surface. This is going to be interesting even after the changeover. I came across this useful site for ground temperature. It is still sub freezing 2" deep (31F) though above freezing 4" deep (33F). http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reportGenerator/view/customSingleStationReport/hourly/2049:MD:SCAN|id=%22%22|name/-167,0/stationId,name,PRCP::value,TOBS::value,TAVG::value,TMAX::value,TMIN::value,SMS:-2:value,SMS:-4:value,SMS:-8:value,SMS:-20:value,SMS:-40:value,STO:-2:value,STO:-4:value,STO:-8:value,STO:-20:value,STO:-40:value,RHUM::value,SRADV::value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Here's hoping for a miracle on Sunday, hopefully I can get clouds and drizzly and 35, but I know where I live. I'm in TROPICAL East Virginia. There's a reason our population is increasing by 10 percent year over year, mild winters. Spring is gonna make a brief visit to Dale City on Sunday, just long enough to sweep away all my snow lol. Then, enter the COLD again lol. Come on Jeb. Are you kidding me? you just had 6 inches of sugar powder a few days ago and looking at hopefully a few more inches before the deluge.grease up those damn shovels already and stop complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GGEM looks very similar to precip orientation/distribution as the gfs/rgem. I'm officially tossing the nam. Not that I didn't do it the second I didn't like what it showed. A general 4-6" through the 95 corridor/cities before the column is suspicious my gut says it continues a slight movement to the south I've been watching that slp in TX and if you look at the current map and then go back to prior hours it continues to weaken http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur and you can see why by looking at temps....no way a slp can move into and develop into that cold dome http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=te&inv=0&t=cur have to be careful what we wish for, not that it will go too far south, but the fact is every model is showing the slp basically dying to our west have to admit this is the craziest system I've ever seen us get snow so I'm not sure what to root for meteo-wise or what to look for in particular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Come on Jeb. Are you kidding me? you just had 6 inches of sugar powder a few days ago and looking at hopefully a few more inches before the deluge.grease up those damn shovels already and stop complaining. you are only allowed to reply to Jeb unless you're a registered patient at St Elizabeths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 my gut says it continues a slight movement to the south I've been watching that slp in TX and if you look at the current map and then go back to prior hours it continues to weaken http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur and you can see why by looking at temps....no way a slp can move into and develop into that cold dome http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=te&inv=0&t=cur have to be careful what we wish for, not that it will go too far south, but the fact is every model is showing the slp basically dying to our west have to admit this is the craziest system I've ever seen us get snow so I'm not sure what to root for meteo-wise or what to look for in particular Time to pull up the WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 UKIE is approx 10mm before the flip at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Time to pull up the WV we're past that my friend http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotGonnaHappen Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 you are only allowed to reply to Jeb unless you're a registered patient at St Elizabeths I was gonna say, I can't be the only one wondering wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 UKIE is approx 10mm before the flip at DCA ugh.. down from 13mm.. thanks for nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 we're past that my friend http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes.php you and your composite radars... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I remember that. It was 18 degrees on a Thursday night. It started raining. The rain instantly froze to my utter delight, and I started sliding on it with glee and onlookers stared at me in total shock, with their lower jaws resting on the icy ground lol. Then the ZR changed to sleet. That sleet became heavy at times and it accumulated 3 inches. It was so much fun jebwalking!!! The loose sleet was fun to walk in then later it hardened like epoxy into a most marvelous glacier upon which I happily slid for days! The sledding was par excellence! The sledding runs were fast as all hell! I slid on my shoes all the way down a street in Dale City, in Hillendale, without falling. That was a first. Man I LOVED that storm so much! And the COLD! I really enjoyed it! I think this is much more likely for mby and yours than 5 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 we're past that my friend http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes.php Impressive increased coverage in last 3/4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Can someone please explain to me what a jebwalk is? and who jeb is? or what jeb is? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 hmmm, GGEM has us still snowing at 1AM Sunday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015022100&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Can someone please explain to me what a jebwalk is? and who jeb is? or what jeb is? Thanks for your own good, no....only Jeb can explain it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Can someone please explain to me what a jebwalk is? and who jeb is? or what jeb is? Thanks Jebman leaving his house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 hmmm, GGEM has us still snowing at 1AM Sunday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015022100&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=0 Step outside right now and can you really be surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Step outside right now and can you really be surprised? considering no other model came close to 1AM, I am surprised hopefully, they will all be looking like that come tomorrow 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 hmmm, GGEM has us still snowing at 1AM Sunday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015022100&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=0 wow! over .75" has fallen as snow on the GEM at 30 hrs.! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=eus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2015022100&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Can someone please explain to me what a jebwalk is? and who jeb is? or what jeb is? Thanks Stay. Read. Live and Learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Can someone please explain to me what a jebwalk is? and who jeb is? or what jeb is? Thanks It's what you've been doing since childhood if you're on this board in this season at this time of night - only now, it has a name. Oh, and I think there's some dude involved as well. He always seems to get plenty of snow and is happy with the climo where he lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 wow! over .75" has fallen as snow on the GEM at 30 hrs.! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=eus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2015022100&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=228 Drink! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 wow! over .75" has fallen as snow on the GEM at 30 hrs.! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=eus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2015022100&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=228 Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 hmmm, GGEM has us still snowing at 1AM Sunday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015022100&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=0 29.85 low can get the moisture in but hard time busting the Arctic Mauler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 wow! over .75" has fallen as snow on the GEM at 30 hrs.! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=eus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2015022100&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=228 Seeing that dry notch in western Md. extending down to here on every model never gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 meh... GGEM torches us Sunday.... 50s into PA. Probably not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's what you've been doing since childhood if you're on this board in this season at this time of night - only now, it has a name. Oh, and I think there's some dude involved as well. He always seems to get plenty of snow and is happy with the climo where he lives. ok, gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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