yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 24 we dance in DC with the flip line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Oomph idk if I want to cheer too much 27 there's a pocket of 0 850s around my area but that may be 33 and some darn heavy rain that would kinda suck but overall can't really complain with the prospects of this. It's 4 degrees under forecast at 8 and rgem and GFS are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Cut back from it's 18z run in most of central MD. and most of D.C. I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS and RGEM are pretty similar overall. Wobbles with maxes but overall a pretty widespread event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Cut back from it's 18z run in most of central MD. Oh well lol. I guess you can't argue with the seasonal trend of putting MoCo through AA County in the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 and most of D.C. I believe... I didn't buy the 18z qpf output at all. It was way wet compared to other guidance. But the distribution was sweet. And it held that look again. As did the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS and RGEM are pretty similar overall. Wobbles with maxes but overall a pretty widespread event. Lets lock up that combo and we are all mostly good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 24 we dance in DC with the flip line Interesting how it brings the 2m line through DC with the 850mb line, but lags the transition @ 950mb. Definitely skeptical of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yep...that's the date...Harrisburg got 18" of snow. I got 8" of pure sleet...it was crazy...1.5 miles south of the m/d line. I realize that you would rather have had the eighteen inches of snow, but just imagine how well eight inches of pure sleet would have stood up to 45 degree sunshine! It would have hardly melted! You would have had an 8 inch deep pure GLACIER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Most of us would be pro Mets if we were good at math. i did math in undergrad. i don't think it's just about math. i think being a pro met is more about wanting to predict the boring weather, not just the storms. as hobbyists, we can pop in at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Pretty good step back from earlier but 18z was on drugs so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Let's see what the UKMET says before we celebrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 i did math in undergrad. i don't think it's just about math. i think being a pro met is more about wanting to predict the boring weather, not just the storms. as hobbyists, we can pop in at any time. Math is a huge part of meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 and most of D.C. I believe... I'm much more interested in the orientation of that band than the exact QPF. Folks in this subforum aren't wanting the same orientation at all..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Tasty. Skeptical of the snow in Tennessee and southern Ky....makes you wonder about other things it's showing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 RGEM has had a Baltimore County snow hole all day. Will be interesting to see if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 OT but did Tropical Tidbits update their color scale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Should be a good test to see which models handle antecedent sfc cold the best. RGEM/Hi-Res NAM see more an in-situ CAD while the GFS isn't seeing it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just a fun fact...the HRRR has the area getting down to -1 overnight tonight and spikes up to 27F in a matter of 4-5 hours or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Skeptical of the snow in Tennessee and southern Ky....makes you wonder about other things it's showing too. I'm skeptical because of the amounts thrown out for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Pretty good step back from earlier but 18z was on drugs so. The only thing I really took away from 18z was that the heavies skipping NW might not be as worrisome. RGEM/GFS confirmed that my yard is in the game. As is yours. If we walk away with 4"+ it will be a small miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 if that verifies idk what the hell I'm gonna do with myself looking at the text output, it looks like you get .75" as snow, give or take .1", and then ,86"+ of rain, so I don't know how they get that map not trying to be a pr*ck, it's just that the WxBell snow maps are garbage when temps or even close to borderline but still rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Has Ellinwood posted a map yet? If so, could you point me in the right direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 oh yea...thats right. The ice storm was amazing if i remember. It was raining in the teens.The Feb 1994 storm was devestating. called for more than 12 inches of snow and got 5 of sleet. That winter sucked I remember that. It was 18 degrees on a Thursday night. It started raining. The rain instantly froze to my utter delight, and I started sliding on it with glee and onlookers stared at me in total shock, with their lower jaws resting on the icy ground lol. Then the ZR changed to sleet. That sleet became heavy at times and it accumulated 3 inches. It was so much fun jebwalking!!! The loose sleet was fun to walk in then later it hardened like epoxy into a most marvelous glacier upon which I happily slid for days! The sledding was par excellence! The sledding runs were fast as all hell! I slid on my shoes all the way down a street in Dale City, in Hillendale, without falling. That was a first. Man I LOVED that storm so much! And the COLD! I really enjoyed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Pretty good step back from earlier but 18z was on drugs so. its a warmer and drier run but the precip angle was the same which was most important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS says BWI doesn't get warmer than 35-36 on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Has Ellinwood posted a map yet? If so, could you point me in the right direction? Here is is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 RGEM has had a Baltimore County snow hole all day. Will be interesting to see if that verifies. The consistency of that snow hole worries me a bit... hope it's just noise but appearing 3 runs in a row isn't good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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