mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Most of us would be pro Mets if we were good at math. all math is simple once you place a "$" in front of the number and treat it as yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Kinda cool how everyone starts holding their breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 RGEM starts between 10-11AM at both DCA/BWI, is all snow through 7PM at DCA and 8PM at BWI ZR starts at 7PM at DCA and lasts until around 9:30PM when it changes to all rain BWI is ZR by 8PM and changes to all rain between 10-11PM It looks like that at 7pm DC has a 30.20 baro, cold air scouring out that is Not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 big Gfs run. Cant wait to see what it shows Day 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I was just wondering if anyone looked at current radar to see if models were preforming as modeled. Seems like a lot of cold air down stream, with light frozen. That would be too much reality. Models are way cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Has rgem been an exceptionally good short range model this year? Its tended to have a slight warm bias all winter, I have been shifting its rain/snow snow/frozen lines 30-40 miles south and its been working with most storms. Otherwise its been good, not as foolproof as it was last winter but still very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 big Gfs run. Cant wait to see what it shows Day 8-10 Don't get your hopes up. We could be building an ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 0z Monday RGEM run the night before the 16-17th storm. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS more juicy at 9 maybe a hair north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Its tended to have a slight warm bias all winter, I have been shifting its rain/snow snow/frozen lines 30-40 miles south and its been working with most storms. Otherwise its been good, not as foolproof as it was last winter but still very good. that would work out just fine down here if it turned out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 In my experience the RGEM is my favorite model WRT rain/snow lines & precip types. It is usually dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 QPF just west of DC at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Two things about this storm: 1) I will get about an inch of snow/sleet in Dale City tomorrow. I dont care what TWC says, I dont trust them any more, all they care about is MONEY. They can't forecast their way out of a wet paper bag. All they care about is young stunning ladies and CA$H. 2) Maryland is going to get DESTROYED by snow tomorrow and Sunday morning, because Bob Chill lives there, BlizzardNole lives there and psuhoffman lives there, and most of all, Because I said so lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 0z Monday RGEM run the night before the 16-17th storm. Not bad. Bob for my area that specifically was on the money too we ended up with 9 so.. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 slp pressure well south of 18Z at 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 big Gfs run. Cant wait to see what it shows Day 8-10 I bet Highasabird will like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 slp pressure well south of 18Z at 12 hrs heights a little lower too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 0z Monday RGEM run the night before the 16-17th storm. Not bad. Absolutely nailed the E-W line across the heart of DC that separated SS/Rockville from Alexandria and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Silly Nam. GFS is money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS looking sexy at 15. That precip maxima is well south out in the TN valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Silly Nam. GFS is money nam is an outlier..shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18 at DC -- bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS looks like a nice thump for DC to Baltimore through 21 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Silly Nam. GFS is money GFS looking sexy at 15. That precip maxima is well south out in the TN valley haven't seen it yet, but from th 12 hr. maps, clearly looked further south, which will be better for DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lol at the precip max right over dc at 21...should be a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 0z Monday RGEM run the night before the 16-17th storm. Not bad. If we're really analyzing how each model did in the last storm to hope it does the same in this one, just for the record, the RGEM was too sharp in its cutoff in precip for northern MD. The gradient was much more gentle than the model caught on. And, it was underdone for our area and DC by its last run by quite a bit. The last run before onset had the 0.2" contour just barely north of us and DC was only like 0.3 (vs. 0.5" actual at DCA). The GFS was actually fairly close to being right in QPF and was locked in to pretty much the same scenario 4 runs in a row. But that doesn't mean the GFS is going to be right this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 haven't seen it yet, but from th 12 hr. maps, clearly looked further south, which will be better for DCA/BWIOh yea she's good Mitch. Hours 18-24 for me all the way down here I get hammered and at 24 both 850 and 2m is still just to my south that would be a little later than what it's been showing for a flip over. God I hope the GFS is right for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Its tended to have a slight warm bias all winter, I have been shifting its rain/snow snow/frozen lines 30-40 miles south and its been working with most storms. Otherwise its been good, not as foolproof as it was last winter but still very good. That is great for us weenies... Not that it's not a valid statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Cut back from it's 18z run in most of central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 IWM maps give us 6-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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