mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I look at this storm as a gift. It's a terrible setup. If the antecedent airmass wasn't record breaking and just departing we would get 3 seconds of snow/sleet at best and a whole lotta cold rain. South surface flow and ripping south midlevel flow almost never gives us measurable snow. Anyone who can measure 2" or more should consider this an unusual victory. Our typical front end thumps have cad and damming. This one is scouring. And somehow it's finding a way to snow. My over under is 2-3 inches. Less would disappoint and more is victory. In between is what I expect. I said it a week ago and I'll say it again, I've had more snow on southerly winds this winter than any other winter in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Not often do you see model sounding weather porn. Check out those rates! Actually, I love those borderline events when you walk the fine line and get snow. Of course, if it goes the warm way vs. cold, they are the most frustrating. But, nothing we can do about it but find every weenie reason why it should be snow and not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Do you really think that is how it is going to play out? I thought it looked fine... and Wes thinks it might be too far south anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I thought it looked fine... and Wes thinks it might be too far south anyways That is what I am thinking. N+W will be the jackpot in both cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow This is where we stand. I'll update again around 1 am. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty at this range. Here are my latest thoughts for DC proper (Still general and likely will need to be fine tuned). 11 am to 7pm - Snow, occasionally mixing with sleet, becomes moderate to heavy in the afternoon. Temps in the mid 20s, gradually rise to around freezing by 7pm 7pm - 9pm - Snow changes over to sleet and then quickly to rain with temperatures climbing to above freezing. 9pm - 5am - Rain, becoming lighter as we head through the night. Temps in the mid 30s. Total snow accumulation: 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Do you really think that is how it is going to play out? It's like 3 inches up here. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Absolutely. In fact, if I somehow get a few inches from this I would say this has been the most memorable week of winter for me personally since Feb. 2010. (Not talking about actual snow totals here, but rather the combination of high winds, record cold, repeated snow dustings, the Saturday snow bands and the big storm on President's Day)Still going to kick ur butt in teh contest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 This post makes as much sense to me as your claim that there would be 45 minute wait lines at Canaan last weekend. Our max wait was about 45 seconds BTW. My comment was suggesting that I think the main precip band will probably end up between where the NAM and GFS have it. I suspect the -40 wind chills might have had something to do with the shorter lines, don't you think? And I ski at Timberline, not Canaan, and have since heard that the lines are often shorter at Canaan. I didn't know that. But you don't have to make it personal. I was making a joke about the models. Lighten up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 21z SREFs still have 0c 850 line crossing DCA around 00z SUN... 2mT 0c line crosses through DCA at 01z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow This is where we stand. I'll update again around 1 am. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty at this range. Here are my latest thoughts for DC proper (Still general and likely will need to be fine tuned). 11 am to 7pm - Snow, occasionally mixing with sleet, becomes moderate to heavy in the afternoon. Temps in the mid 20s, gradually rise to around freezing by 7pm 7pm - 9pm - Snow changes over to sleet and then quickly to rain with temperatures climbing to above freezing. 9pm - 5am - Rain, becoming lighter as we head through the night. Temps in the mid 30s. Total snow accumulation: 2-4" Thanks Matt. Looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's like 3 inches up here. Blah. I just looked again and actually it's not bad at all. .5 falls as snow by Sat. Evening. Then it gets messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Didn't do too bad other than being slightly high but was bearish relatively speaking last storm. Was a bit high on RIC. Anyway, the totals Going to do ranges for a matter of professionalism, however in parentheses is the precise number. DCA: 2-4 (2.9) BWI: 3-5 (4.0) FDK: 5-7 (6.1) IAD: 5-7 (6.0) JYO: 4-6 (4.8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I just looked again and actually it's not bad at all. .5 falls as snow by Sat. Evening. Then it gets messy. Looks like the cobb output shows 6:1 ratios with temps in the 20s... I just don't buy it, especially with normal 12:1 at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's like 3 inches up here. Blah.Seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 nothing...posts got deleted. It's all good...hope you get thumped Such drama. Just trying to help you with your burden. No concerns about accums here, but I don't think ur in a good spot... This is the Saturday to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 wags on whether precip jackpot moves north or south? I'll vote south in order to maintain weenie status, but also because 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS came south...NAM I discount (I wonder why ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 existing snow pack will help. trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think this is going to be uniform between downtown and the close in suburbs so i do not see 1" for Alexandria and 6" for Rockville but rather a uniform 4-6". Stand behind this I think ur dead wrong Favored areas will profit...it will not be uniform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I agree with mitch.. and that is somewhat true H20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Didn't do too bad other than being slightly high but was bearish relatively speaking last storm. Was a bit high on RIC. Anyway, the totals Going to do ranges for a matter of professionalism, however in parentheses is the precise number. DCA: 2-4 (2.9) BWI: 3-5 (4.0) FDK: 5-7 (6.1) IAD: 5-7 (6.0) JYO: 4-6 (4.8) Any particular reason JYO is less than IAD in this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think the 18z gfs was dead nuts spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think the 18z gfs was dead nuts spot on. snow was great, but I didn't like the amount of rain it showed that falls after the switch switching from rain to snow is soooo much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks like the cobb output shows 6:1 ratios with temps in the 20s... I just don't buy it, especially with normal 12:1 at BWI. I'm going conservative on this one so I'll say 4. However there is definitely a better upside with this storm. It is really hard to tell but this could go to town in some spots. If and where that happens can easily get 6-8 or more. I can also see an earlier flip and more prolonged period of sleet and zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think the 18z gfs was dead nuts spot on.Bob can you explain? We all know how the 18z suite can be sometimes. Is there something you picked up on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Bob can you explain? We all know how the 18z suite can be sometimes. Is there something you picked up on? Simple analysis. My yard jackpotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Bob can you explain? We all know how the 18z suite can be sometimes. Is there something you picked up on? Yes...it nailed his back yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Simple analysis. My yard jackpotted LOL...we posted at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm going to have a guess too -- 7 to 12 inches for higher parts of noVA, ne WV, MD and PA north of a line from IAD to BWI to PHL (north to places nobody will read this) and 4-7 inches for a 50 mile wide swath to the south of that, including most of the urban population of noVA, DC, MD, within which area snow will start mixing with rain or ice pellets with a thin strip of freezing rain along the boundary of the zones outlined then spreading further into that zone but becoming less ZR and more IP. DCA would perhaps end up with 3.5" snow and a total of .75" liquid, IAD and BWI about 5.0" snow and .80" liquid. Warm sector will be fighting to establish itself at surface as shallow layers of cold resist very modest WAA and use feedback from chilled surface to hang in as long as possible. So max temps something like 37 at IAD, 41 at DCA and 36 at BWI. Away from higher elevations where an isolated 18" is possible, somewhere around Westminster to Harrisburg PA jackpots with 14". Roads become nightmarish late Saturday and a lot further south than one might expect as even with smooth transition to rain you would have slush and ponding issues with (very) slowly melting snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I hope that pressing look of the radar from the upper Midwest isn't just another weenie hallucination... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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