Scraff Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So happy hour GooFuS is back!? About time. Can't wait for Bob Chill white asteroid destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What's your (educated) guess on this Wes?. I'm sort of a pessimist in terms of DCA as we usually get screwed but I don't trust the NAM and worry that the GFS still may have a slight south bias so I guess I'm saying, I don't know. The 15Z SREF gives DC anywhere from a dusting to 3.6 inches and i think that is a pretty good range for DCA. you northern guys the bottom end of the range range is higher and so is the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm sort of a pessimist in terms of DCA as we usually get screwed but I don't trust the NAM and worry that the GFS still may have a slight south bias so I guess I'm saying, I don't know. The 15Z SREF gives DC anywhere from a dusting to 3.6 inches and i think that is a pretty good range for DCA. you northern guys the bottom end of the range range is higher and so is the top. Thank you very much Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 hmmmm, this is good too 925mb at 30 hrs r http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_030_925_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150220+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Topper just showed his map, said it hasn't changed since noon. 1-6" from DC to the NW burbs. Crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What did UKMET give us today in the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Seems to be rare to see a nose of the heavier stuff extend to the SE and cover DC like that and leave BWI out of the game. Especially when the rest of the map in the DELMARVA is pretty linear from SW to NE. As much as I'd love to see it (sorry Bal) it's rough to contemplate the cold holding in to support a bump like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Uh-oh LWX if the gfs is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Uh-oh LWX if the gfs is right. The nams are the only crappy runs from I70 south. RGEM/GFS are solid @ 18z. 12z had good runs from all guidance. Ukmet was 3-6" everywhere. It's a pretty unusual storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The nams are the only crappy runs from I70 south. RGEM/GFS are solid @ 18z. 12z had good runs from all guidance. Ukmet was 3-6" everywhere. It's a pretty unusual storm. And a really bearish forecast to my east from LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 And a really bearish forecast to my east from LWX. They could be exactly right. It's just a weird one. The stripe of heavy precip when the column is right isn't resolved. Standard practice with dicey storms is to go weak 95 and se and go big nw. I would think 0z runs will clear up some uncertainty but maybe not. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Uh-oh LWX if the gfs is right. I don't necessarily think so. Actually, I believe that LWX's forecast is pretty reasonable for right now, at least for the I-95 corridor area (which is what I paid most attention to). The 12Z guidance was solid and the 18Z GFS/RGEM came in looking good. But the 18Z NAM (even if it's the NAM!) gives one pause, plus the fact that even in the "good" guidance the DC area is kind of on the edge. So reaching warning criteria there is a lot less certain right now compared to areas farther west. An advisory for now is perfectly fine. I'm sure if things at 00Z show the immediate metro area getting pummeled, they can easily upgrade that to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 They could be exactly right. It's just a weird one. The stripe of heavy precip when the column is right isn't resolved. Standard practice with dicey storms is to go weak 95 and se and go big nw. I would think 0z runs will clear up some uncertainty but maybe not. lol Odds are that the uncertainty is definitely quite certain!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 And a really bearish forecast to my east from LWX. They just posted on FB side by side the WWA and their snow map....I asked them which one is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It is but that's how these events always are. easy to get screwed and almost impossible to know ahead of time what the orientation of the initial heaiver precip band will have. The NAM takes it north of us and the GFS hits us. I'd definitely rather have the GFS in my camp than the NAM. GFS might be good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Radar looks nothing like the GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Radar looks nothing like the GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Even the NAM sim between 0Z and 3Z couldn't be much more different. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_006_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=sim_radar&fhr=006&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150220+18+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Radar looks fine comparing to the modeling to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 They could be exactly right. It's just a weird one. The stripe of heavy precip when the column is right isn't resolved. Standard practice with dicey storms is to go weak 95 and se and go big nw. I would think 0z runs will clear up some uncertainty but maybe not. lol Well just about anything COULD be right. The forecast seems to ignore all except the NAM. As for future runs, I'm sure by 18 z tomorrow we'll know. I was surprised by the WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What the heck happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What the heck happened? 1-3" was a big blow to the server Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Love the guy on facebook trying to incorrectly explain the discrepancy with the lwx forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Love the guy on facebook trying to incorrectly explain the discrepancy with the lwx forecasts. He's not understanding...he's answering a whole different question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 corrected/changed to 2-4 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-EASTERN LOUDOUN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...LEESBURG...ASHBURN519 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAYTO 6 AM EST SUNDAY...* PRECIPITATION TYPE...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.--------------------------------------------------------NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN519 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAYTO 9 AM EST SUNDAY...* PRECIPITATION TYPE...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Weakest radar ever. Storm seems to be s-l-o-w-l-y getting its act together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Weakest radar ever. Storm seems to be s-l-o-w-l-y getting its act together Can we hold off on radar hallucinations until tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Weakest radar ever. Storm seems to be s-l-o-w-l-y getting its act together Look on the bright side. Less amp early on means more chance of getting deathbanded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 corrected/changed to 2-4 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-EASTERN LOUDOUN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...MANASSAS... MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...LEESBURG... ASHBURN 519 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. -------------------------------------------------------- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE... BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...CATONSVILLE...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS... ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE... ABERDEEN 519 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. Basically nothing still matches on their website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.