jnis Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My NWS point and click is now updated and has 4 - 7", but no update to the advisory of 1-2"...I'm guessing, like gymengineer pointed out, it will be revised at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 They can always ratchet up to a warning. I mean if you guys were at the desk you might do the same thing. Going big initially hasn't paid off very often for us There's a middle ground though... I think a 3-6" forecast is perfectly reasonable for NW areas. 1-2" is too low considering the guidance and 8-12" like the 18z NAM shows in some spots is too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anyone think they should've waited until the 18z GFS to issue the winter weather products? Not trying to bash just asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anyone think they should've waited until the 18z GFS to issue the winter weather products? Not trying to bash just asking. Me, though they probably have a deadline to decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'll stick to my 3-6 Going down in flames?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The new Loudoun zone is leading to bizarre forecasts. They are going with 1-3 for eastern Loudoun and 4-6 for western. It's not anywhere close to that big a cutoff in any storm I can remember recently. It would be more like 2-4 vs 3-5 would be a realistic taper within the county WWA says 1-3, map shows 4-6, point-and-click says 2-4. Hmmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My NWS point and click is now updated and has 4 - 7", but no update to the advisory of 1-2"...I'm guessing, like gymengineer pointed out, it will be revised at some point. I got 2-5" in my point and click. I am sure it is some kind of mixup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I would rather be in an advisory that merits a late upgrade vs. the inverse situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Maybe the 1-3 is just for Saturday night? Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -2. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the evening. Saturday Snow. High near 29. Wind chill values as low as -2. South wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow. Low around 29. South wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I got 2-5" in my point and click. I am sure it is some kind of mixup. It sure seems that way,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 WWA says 1-3, map shows 4-6, point-and-click says 2-4. Hmmmmm... Yep exact same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I would rather be in an advisory that merits a late upgrade vs. the inverse situation. We've had plenty of both in the last two years. Advisories that resulted in warning criteria snow and warnings that resulted in rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Last 3 NAM runs for jyo for snow 0z 5.4" 6z 4.1" 12z 3.7" 18z 2.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Most important GFS run of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I actually think it's a good call....all guidance currently points to Leesburg getting 1-3" I'm impressed they didn't jump the gun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anyone interpret the rgem crayon maps yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anyone interpret the rgem crayon maps yet? 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Damn the GFS looks good down on western VA at 21 Edit: between 21 and 24 we have close to .75 qpf with 850s well to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anyone interpret the rgem crayon maps yet? 13mm SN at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z 2.8" At this pace, pretty soon it'll be -2 inches, for the amount of current snowpack we'll be losing due to the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 13mm SN at DCA So ~5 inches... Good run then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think we just got gfs'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 whewwww... much better than the NAM for a lot of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Smackdown. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS is cold at 0z, colder than 12z GFS even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS is a hit...gives 5-7" for the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM says dont worry. Get burried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks good for you guys up north at 30 850s pretty close but with heavy rates like that shouldn't have a problem overcoming it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 HR 30 is heavy heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like 6-8" @ DCA? What a weird day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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