BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z nam has onset around 10-11am for the cities. Heaviest axis back in ky seems further south than 12z. It seems to pull back abruptly. Odd run coming eta: until mid-afternoon http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022018&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=026 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam looks whacky. 850 line goes north of me then creates a wedge again like 6 hours later doesn't make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 27 is a big hit... 30 is sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It seems to pull back abruptly. Odd run coming eta: until mid-afternoon http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022018&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=026 That Tidal Potomac warm nose at 24hrs seems realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nam looks whacky. 850 line goes north of me then creates a wedge again like 6 hours later doesn't make any sense. convective cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's a weird mixy hybrid (which has been implied by all the models) then to all snow with the thump...much better NW than DC...for DC basically a 2-4 hour thump then flip...maybe 2-3"....sucky run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 eh.. not a great run for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What's holding back the precip from advancing eastward at 27? If that actually moved it would've been as good as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 eh.. not a great run for me It's awful for us, though verbatim we'd probably sneak 2", maybe 3"....it doesn't start in earnest until like 3pm and then we flip at 6pm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 eh.. not a great run for me Nor me. Very sharp gradient... Parkton does a lot better than me if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Watch us get NAM'd on the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 convective coolingI could see if there were heavy rates but it is meager and putrid looking here. You guys have a much better shot up your way. Hopefully the GFS delivers the goods, it's been more consistant with the system imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I remember last winter as being way colder. This winter felt more normal temp wise to me. i guess you were wearing more clothes than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ~ 1 qpf in my area before any flip takes place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The NAM does crush the usual spots. Its heavy snow from WInchester to Westminster. We lose the 850's from 0Z on going south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Bad run, not much snow until you get NW of the cities, cutoff is insane. A lot of precip at 31-34 degrees in the Metros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 its not that different from 12z, definitely better NW then in the cities. It was the furthest NW at 12z so wait for RGEM and GFS before freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 its not that different from 12z, definitely better NW then in the cities. It was the furthest NW at 12z so wait for RGEM and GFS before freaking out. No, let them freak out. Been doing it all day, why quit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's awful for us, though verbatim we'd probably sneak 2", maybe 3"....it doesn't start in earnest until like 3pm and then we flip at 6pm.... yeah, not a big fan. pretty close to being worse too... for us at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 its not that different from 12z, definitely better NW then in the cities. It was the furthest NW at 12z so wait for RGEM and GFS before freaking out. The problem is it's a brutal cutoff... kinda like October 2011 and 2/3 last year. "not that different" if you're on the good side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 its not that different from 12z, definitely better NW then in the cities. It was the furthest NW at 12z so wait for RGEM and GFS before freaking out. The sounding certainly are scarey. Here's the sounding for DCA at 21Z. By 00Z, we are 2C or higher. Date: 27 hour Eta valid 21Z SAT 21 FEB 15 Station: 38.85,-77.03 Latitude: 38.85 Longitude: -77.03 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1016 57 -2.7 -3.4 95 0.7 -3.0 158 7 269.2 269.7 269.3 277.0 2.92 1 1000 185 -3.5 166 13 269.7 2 950 590 -1.5 -1.9 97 0.4 -1.7 187 40 275.7 276.3 274.1 285.2 3.49 3 900 1022 -0.9 -1.3 97 0.4 -1.1 208 54 280.6 281.2 277.3 291.3 3.86 4 850 1478 -0.8 -1.1 97 0.4 -0.9 217 69 285.3 286.1 280.0 297.1 4.14 5 800 1962 -2.1 -2.6 96 0.6 -2.3 218 70 289.0 289.6 281.5 300.3 3.94 6 750 2472 -3.8 -4.5 95 0.6 -4.1 220 67 292.4 293.1 282.7 303.2 3.66 7 700 3017 -4.5 -5.2 95 0.6 -4.8 227 61 297.5 298.1 284.8 308.6 3.72 8 650 3598 -7.5 -8.3 93 0.9 -7.8 240 59 300.5 301.1 285.4 310.1 3.14 9 600 4217 -11.1 -12.1 92 1.0 -11.5 248 60 303.3 303.7 285.7 311.1 2.52 10 550 4880 -15.2 -16.3 91 1.1 -15.6 252 59 306.0 306.4 286.1 312.2 1.94 11 500 5593 -19.8 -20.8 91 1.1 -20.0 255 64 308.9 309.2 286.6 313.7 1.45 12 450 6367 -25.1 -26.3 89 1.3 -25.3 254 69 311.7 311.9 287.1 315.1 0.99 13 400 7212 -31.6 -34.2 78 2.6 -31.9 250 69 313.9 314.0 287.3 315.8 0.53 14 350 8139 -39.8 -43.2 70 3.4 -40.1 246 71 315.1 315.1 287.4 315.9 0.24 15 300 9172 -49.1 -52.7 66 3.6 -49.3 242 69 316.1 316.1 287.6 316.4 0.10 16 250 10338 -60.0 256 80 316.9 17 200 11713 -61.2 276 98 335.9 18 150 13518 -57.0 266 73 371.9 19 100 16065 -60.9 261 64 410.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 its not that different from 12z, definitely better NW then in the cities. It was the furthest NW at 12z so wait for RGEM and GFS before freaking out. LOL voice of reason from the guy way north who gets nailed. You were a total wreck the last storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 always throw out the least snowiest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z nam has onset around 10-11am for the cities. Heaviest axis back in ky seems further south than 12z. Really? Looks a few hours later than that at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM is way wetter and NW than any model because it's too amped it's likely wrong since it is on its own and the NAM rarely does well on its own even with this lead time we'll see if the rest of the 18Z suite follows it or leaves it in the dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The HI-RES NAM was good for most of us at 12z... lets see what it says first before jumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4K NAM basically just misses DC with SN (hits Moco and Howard, but misses DC) then paints DC with heavy ice around hrs 29-32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Really? Looks a few hours later than that at least.. I was looking at this sim panel. It's right there @ 15z but the gradient sets up before the big push. Nam is either a leader or lost with the 18z run. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This thing is so tight to begin with that these little wobbles mean a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4K NAM basically just misses DC with SN (hits Moco and Howard, but misses DC) then paints DC with heavy ice around hrs 29-32 you have high res out that far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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