DDweatherman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yeah wow. Just got to Towson checking the NAM, Mitch's trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 DCA at 60 is sleet... just changed over from snow prob at hr 59 or so Looks like most of us go all rain by 63 but after practically a warning criteria event? Nam doesn't give me a lot of confidence but it's usually the most amped so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 widespread 3-6 by 0z sun? and still coming? WTF Yeah, really!? WTF, indeed...which of course is in the title of this thread. But WTF in a good way, even if it is the NAM beyond 48 hours. Somewhat weaker wave, better solution it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 it basically just becomes a sw flow overrunning event http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=051ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_051_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150219+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 idk who this guy JI is, but we've got to get him to start more threads! If we actually do get something good out of this in the end, I'm dubbing it the "WTF Storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Bob Chill, the Euro ensemble mean had much more snow for this event that the OP. It had about 3-4 inches while OP had 1. I kept asking if we are going back to the same solutions we had a few days ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like most of us go all rain by 63 but after practically a warning criteria event? Nam doesn't give me a lot of confidence but it's usually the most amped so... we're "slottin'" by then so who cares http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_060_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=060&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150219+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The Mitch Trend Storm (or WTF Storm). I'm liking what I'm reading here. Holding off car wash thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 everybody along and west of I95 stays between 32-33 through 1AM Sunday http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_066_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=066&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150219+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 we're "slottin'" by then so who cares http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_060_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=060&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150219+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Would be nice. Get dumped on, then some sleet and ice, then maybe not too much light rain and drizzle...then hopefully get cold again not too long after. I'd take something like the February 12-13 event last year (obviously this won't have the same snow amounts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hmmmm (12hr precip from 48 to 60) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 and, at 66 hrs., it looks like the cold will shortly start to filter into the area again, awaiting the Monday/Tues event http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=066ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_066_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150219+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hmmmm nam_namer_060_precip_p122-19-15.gif I was checking that out...total amount that would fall as frozen/freezing. And interestingly, more QPF than we got from the Monday night event. (ETA: But, I must temper my hopes and enthusiasm by saying, "it's the NAM beyond 48 hours!") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's a shame it's the NAM. I'd love to believe it. Hoping for the trend to continue on the GFS and Euro. Would love a front end few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I was checking that out...total amount that would fall as frozen/freezing. And interestingly, more QPF than we got from the Monday night event. (ETA: But, I must temper my hopes and enthusiasm by saying, "it's the NAM beyond 48 hours!") .59" falls at DCA and .54" falls at BWI through 7PM Saturday looks like temps are marginal by 7PM, though both locations are still below freezing, DCA is -.7C and BWI is -1.2C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 No doubt it's overdone, but the NAM is great for CHO and points further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's a shame it's the NAM. I'd love to believe it. Hoping for the trend to continue on the GFS and Euro. Would love a front end few inches. it really isn't all that different from the GFS on the temp profile it's just that the precip gets in earlier so it has a chance to fall while temps still support all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ha...I knew this would happen. Will be in Kentucky tomorrow through Monday. I hope yall get it. I like the trends...Can't say I'm not shocked...I thought this was a goner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This mornings gfs is basically all frozen out here. By the time it trys to rain the precipitation is all but over. This has the feeling of a 3 inch thump followed by drizzle. We do these well out here occasionally. It's really the only one we do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I dont have the soundings yet. But it appears I stay all snow out here. I dry slot before any rain can come in. I wold obviously take this as modeled in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ha...I knew this would happen. Will be in Kentucky tomorrow through Monday. I hope yall get it. I like the trends...Can't say I'm not shocked...I thought this was a goner.amped solutions have mostly failed this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ha...I knew this would happen. Will be in Kentucky tomorrow through Monday. I hope yall get it. I like the trends...Can't say I'm not shocked...I thought this was a goner. parts of KY get hit pretty hard too on the NAM Randy where are you going and I'll get you the text output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Right. I just hope the GFS continues in this direction. it really isn't all that different from the GFS on the temp profile it's just that the precip gets in earlier so it has a chance to fall while temps still support all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 amped solutions have mostly failed this year And huge domes of massive cold are pretty tough to just wipe away in a 24 hour time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 parts of KY get hit pretty hard too on the NAM Randy where are you going and I'll get you the text output Randy, choose from this list KBWG Bowling Green-Warren County Regional Airport KY C y 36.96 -86.42 527.887 KEHR Henderson City KY C y 37.82 -87.69 383.858 KHOP Fort Campbell U. S. Army Airfield KY C y 36.669 -87.496 561.024 KOWB Owensboro / Daviess KY C y 37.76 -87.17 416.667 KPAH Paducah, Barkley Regional Airport KY C y 37.07 -88.77 407.152 K1A6 Middlesboro-Bell County Airport KY E y 36.611 -83.737 1154.86 KCVG Covington / Cincinnati / Northern Kentucky KY E y 39.05 -84.67 886.155 KEKQ Wayne County Airport KY E y 36.855 -84.856 962.927 KFFT Frankfort, Capital City Airport KY E y 38.18 -84.9 803.806 KFTK Fort Knox KY E y 37.9 -85.967 784.121 KGLW Glasgow Municipal Airport KY C y 36.963 -85.946 715.223 KI16 Kee Field Airport KY E y 37.6 -81.559 1784.78 KJKL Julian Carroll Airport KY E y 37.6 -83.32 1365.16 KLEX Lexington, Blue Grass Airport KY E y 38.05 -84.6 980.971 KLOU Louisville, Bowman Field Airport KY E y 38.23 -85.67 540.026 KLOZ London-Corbin Airport-Magee Field KY E y 37.09 -84.04 1206.04 KSDF Louisville, Standiford Field KY E y 38.19 -85.73 480.971 KSME Somerset-Pulaski County-J.T. Wilson Field Airport KY E y 37.055 -84.614 928.478 KY15 Brennan Farm Airport KY E y 45.65 -84.467 577.428 KDVK Stuart Powell Field Airport KY E Y 37.5779 -84.7697 1022 KI39 Madison Airport KY E y 37.6308 -84.3323 1002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 And huge domes of massive cold are pretty tough to just wipe away in a 24 hour time frame.especially by a weak area of low pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Will anybody be surprised Thursday when we are looking at a completely different scenario for the weekend? Sage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 BWI http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt DCA http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt IAD http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Sage. We'll call you Nostradamus if the NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z HI-RES NAM, for those who wish to know, snow falling at 51 and 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.