mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'll wait till someone posts accupro text but this sure looks like all snow until rates let up. Maybe heavy sleet on the tail. Great run. since it only comes out in 6-hr. intervals we won't know what goes on between 7PM and 1AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 After taking a second glance I think we are all snow for the entire storm on the Euro. For us our total precip is .6. Only .20 falls after 0z. At 6z the 850's are still -1 and the precip is basically shut off at that point. I think the Euro is a few degrees too warm at the surface as well. This run is a solid 6 for us. for a change we are actually in the same qpf category. you will always have a degree or two on me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Between 18z-0z we'll all get 3-5" of snow with surface basically below freezing. That is going to be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 fear and loathing in Centreville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Between 18z-0z we'll all get 3-5" of snow with surface basically below freezing. That is going to be fun to watch. Have we given up on anything earlier (15z-18z)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 since it only comes out in 6-hr. intervals we won't know what goes on between 7PM and 1AM me and you are above 0 at 925 by 03z, and it is about to tickle us at 0z....At the very best we are sleet for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 for a change we are actually in the same qpf category. you will always have a degree or two on me though. It will be nice not willing the heavier returns north. No northern fringe on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro made a nice move. Will be interesting to see if 0z can nudge even a bit colder. A lot of the 12z suite seemed to take this path Wundermap still seems to show a warming trend at the surface over the Beltway around 0Z Sunday also with what seems more like cold air damning to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 me and you are above 0 at 925 by 03z, and it is about to tickle us at 0z....At the very best we are sleet for a while K thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Definitely the driest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 but yeah could last past 0z as snow.. next panel up into n md but shows lots of 0s around DC.. never warms much past that till morning. highest is around 1c at 18z.. know not only level that matters tho. How long does the precip linger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Have we given up on anything earlier (15z-18z)? No, not at all. I was just commenting on the specific run. Trend has been to bring onset through the metros before noon. Once it gets going it's going to really thump for a time. I'm pretty excited. The biggest thing I hope about the euro being right is shutting down precip shortly after the flip. Everything has broken in our favor @ 12z. And we're less than 36 hours from onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 How long does the precip linger? like 0.1" falls for me and you after 03z....glorious finish.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Some of these people act, every time it might snow, like my Beagle did when we cooked steak. or a Dachshund Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 DT goes 6-10 for Purcellville and west..3-6 DC to Purcellville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No, not at all. I was just commenting on the specific run. Trend has been to bring onset through the metros before noon. Once it gets going it's going to really thump for a time. I'm pretty excited. The biggest thing I hope about the euro being right is shutting down precip shortly after the flip. Everything has broken in our favor @ 12z. And we're less than 36 hours from onset. yeah...every model now starts before 18z....NAM is close for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 yeah...every model now starts before 18z....NAM is close for DC High res is a smacking though. High res did better close in with the mon night event iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No, not at all. I was just commenting on the specific run. Trend has been to bring onset through the metros before noon. Once it gets going it's going to really thump for a time. I'm pretty excited. The biggest thing I hope about the euro being right is shutting down precip shortly after the flip. Everything has broken in our favor @ 12z. And we're less than 36 hours from onset.I feel like these swfe waa thumps trend faster for the onset and faster with the dry slot as we get closer to the event.In sne i think the nam was often too cold so i have that slight concern but so far it's at least close to the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 oops wasnt even right map... just 6 hrs on precip above thru 0z total 60hr total QPF jackpot goes to Warrior Bigfoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 60hr total QPF jackpot goes to Warrior Bigfoot Lol I don't want it. Most of it is rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No, not at all. I was just commenting on the specific run. Trend has been to bring onset through the metros before noon. Once it gets going it's going to really thump for a time. I'm pretty excited. The biggest thing I hope about the euro being right is shutting down precip shortly after the flip. Everything has broken in our favor @ 12z. And we're less than 36 hours from onset. Since I live like 2 miles south of you, if you're excited, I'm excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 lol- was on a conference call and came back to a war. Euro looks great. All guidance about in line with each other. I'll hug the rgem. Boom. if we do a repeat from pre-Monday's event, we should continue to get some ticks south before game time, which will help us all immensely vs. what it did for us on Monday and since things have ticked south at 12Z (generally speaking) at about the same time we saw ticks south before Monday, I think the chances are in our favor of a repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 like 0.1" falls for me and you after 03z....glorious finish.... Great run, and just to echo other posters, we appreciate your PBP. In fact, I think it's superior to other PBP's because you get right to the point and I don't have to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If melting is mitigated sat night - sun before the front clears, a lot of us could have 2 weeks of 75% snowcover South facing areas will get taken down next week no matter what the temps are. Shaded, woods, and north facing are going to look wintry for a while. This winter will go down as quite acceptable in my book if tomorrow performs. I don't require KU's like many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If melting is mitigated sat night - sun before the front clears, a lot of us could have 2 weeks of 75% snowcover South facing areas will get taken down next week no matter what the temps are. Shaded, woods, and north facing are going to look wintry for a while. This winter will go down as quite acceptable in my book if tomorrow performs. I don't require KU's like many. If I get 6-10 from this event I am with you. Acceptable winter for sure. It's still weird to me that my best event of the year is going to be a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Great run, and just to echo other posters, we appreciate your PBP. In fact, I think it's superior to other PBP's because you get right to the point and I don't have to guess. Thanks. I don't do anything unique or special...I just get the euro a bit faster than the wxbell crew. As has always been the case, I analyze the run before I start spewing fine details...All the info comes out anyway...It isn't like it never gets revealed unless some weenie requests it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No, it's not. Percentage wise, it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 if we do a repeat from pre-Monday's event, we should continue to get some ticks south before game time, which will help us all immensely vs. what it did for us on Monday and since things have ticked south at 12Z (generally speaking) at about the same time we saw ticks south before Monday, I think the chances are in our favor of a repeat Weenie rationalization is the best . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anyone know what model Wunderground forecasts are based on? Wunderground is predicting 8-12" for Glen Burnie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anyone know what model Wunderground forecasts are based on? Wunderground is predicting 8-12" for Glen Burnie... Jay's wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.