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Weekend Mixed Bag of WTF storm thread


Ji

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After taking a second glance I think we are all snow for the entire storm on the Euro. For us our total precip is .6. Only .20 falls after 0z. At 6z the 850's are still -1 and the precip is basically shut off at that point. I think the Euro is a few degrees too warm at the surface as well. This run is a solid 6 for us.

 

for a change we are actually in the same qpf category. you will always have a degree or two on me though. 

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Euro made a nice move. Will be interesting to see if 0z can nudge even a bit colder. A lot of the 12z suite seemed to take this path

Wundermap still seems to show a warming trend at the surface over the Beltway around 0Z Sunday also with what seems more like cold air damning to me.

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but yeah could last past 0z as snow.. next panel up into n md but shows lots of 0s around DC.. never warms much past that till morning. highest is around 1c at 18z.. know not only level that matters tho. 

 

EILPEY5.png

How long does the precip linger?

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Have we given up on anything earlier (15z-18z)?

No, not at all. I was just commenting on the specific run. Trend has been to bring onset through the metros before noon. Once it gets going it's going to really thump for a time. I'm pretty excited. The biggest thing I hope about the euro being right is shutting down precip shortly after the flip. Everything has broken in our favor @ 12z. And we're less than 36 hours from onset.

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No, not at all. I was just commenting on the specific run. Trend has been to bring onset through the metros before noon. Once it gets going it's going to really thump for a time. I'm pretty excited. The biggest thing I hope about the euro being right is shutting down precip shortly after the flip. Everything has broken in our favor @ 12z. And we're less than 36 hours from onset.

 

yeah...every model now starts before 18z....NAM is close for DC

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No, not at all. I was just commenting on the specific run. Trend has been to bring onset through the metros before noon. Once it gets going it's going to really thump for a time. I'm pretty excited. The biggest thing I hope about the euro being right is shutting down precip shortly after the flip. Everything has broken in our favor @ 12z. And we're less than 36 hours from onset.

I feel like these swfe waa thumps trend faster for the onset and faster with the dry slot as we get closer to the event.

In sne i think the nam was often too cold so i have that slight concern but so far it's at least close to the rest of guidance.

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No, not at all. I was just commenting on the specific run. Trend has been to bring onset through the metros before noon. Once it gets going it's going to really thump for a time. I'm pretty excited. The biggest thing I hope about the euro being right is shutting down precip shortly after the flip. Everything has broken in our favor @ 12z. And we're less than 36 hours from onset.

 

Since I live like 2 miles south of you, if you're excited, I'm excited.

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lol- was on a conference call and came back to a war.

Euro looks great. All guidance about in line with each other. I'll hug the rgem. Boom.

if we do a repeat from pre-Monday's event, we should continue to get some ticks south before game time, which will help us all immensely vs. what it did for us on Monday

and since things have ticked south at 12Z (generally speaking) at about the same time we saw ticks south before Monday, I think the chances are in our favor of a repeat

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If melting is mitigated sat night - sun before the front clears, a lot of us could have 2 weeks of 75% snowcover South facing areas will get taken down next week no matter what the temps are. Shaded, woods, and north facing are going to look wintry for a while.

This winter will go down as quite acceptable in my book if tomorrow performs. I don't require KU's like many.

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If melting is mitigated sat night - sun before the front clears, a lot of us could have 2 weeks of 75% snowcover South facing areas will get taken down next week no matter what the temps are. Shaded, woods, and north facing are going to look wintry for a while.

This winter will go down as quite acceptable in my book if tomorrow performs. I don't require KU's like many.

 

If I get 6-10 from this event I am with you. Acceptable winter for sure. It's still weird to me that my best event of the year is going to be a cutter.

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Great run, and just to echo other posters, we appreciate your PBP.  In fact, I think it's superior to other PBP's because you get right to the point and I don't have to guess.

 

Thanks.  I don't do anything unique or special...I just get the euro a bit faster than the wxbell crew.  As has always been the case, I analyze the run before I start spewing fine details...All the info comes out anyway...It isn't like it never gets revealed unless some weenie requests it.  

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if we do a repeat from pre-Monday's event, we should continue to get some ticks south before game time, which will help us all immensely vs. what it did for us on Monday

and since things have ticked south at 12Z (generally speaking) at about the same time we saw ticks south before Monday, I think the chances are in our favor of a repeat

Weenie rationalization is the best  ;) .

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