yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hopefully 12z EURO can give us more ... last night's run was meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Damn I'm slow. I just realized who WestminsterDeathband is. Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just had Chinese food for lunch here in the office. Based on the fortune that I received from my cookie I am predicting more than less snow this weekend My fortune read: "When winter comes heaven will rain success on you." Since I don't like rain, but love snow, I am going to interpret that as a lot of snow is coming!!!! Woohoo - bring it on! Mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 LOL, I kinda thought a few people hadn't figured it out but I wasn't going to say anything Ha..........I even thanked Matt for a map the other day and didn't realize it was him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hopefully 12z EURO can give us more ... last night's run was meh good thing you caught that x to z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 and I am still waiting for my last few warnings to verify, who cares what the NWS forecast is, I care what actually happens and those forecasts often have little to do with that. Yeah there can be another thread if someone wants to discuss that. This is a model/threat thread not what when how whys of LWX. Pretty much know where guidance is unless they throw up some 8-12 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 and I am still waiting for my last few warnings to verify, who cares what the NWS forecast is, I care what actually happens and those forecasts often have little to do with that. Yeah, no kidding. Though there have been some really interesting events here, I have not yet technically received warning-criteria (5"+) snow from a single one yet where I am. Close a couple of times, but not quite. Strangely enough, depending on how tomorrow actually works out, that could be the first/only one so far that crosses that threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is when the Euro usually stays stubborn and leaves doubt for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Is this a serious post? Or are you just looking at DC? I am referring to the immediate DC area...GFS, NAM, RGEM showed way more than 1-2 and 2-3. All three showed at least 3-4 in DC itself...but like Psuhoffman said, LWX forecast doesn't matter, what matters is what verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is when the Euro usually stays stubborn and leaves doubt for everyone. Does anyone really think it will look much different or better compared to its last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Checking in from Boston, was in this subforum the past few years (and on EasternWX) but moved up to New England this year. Congrats on this one, guys, looking better and better and y'all deserve a nice snow more than anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does anyone really think it will look much different or better compared to its last run? This winter yes... models have flip flop even 24 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is when the Euro usually stays stubborn and leaves doubt for everyone. For someone who criticizes my pessimism 90% of your posts are just to throw cold water on our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I am referring to the immediate DC area...GFS, NAM, RGEM showed way more than 1-2 and 2-3. All three showed at least 3-4 in DC itself...but like Psuhoffman said, LWX forecast doesn't matter, what matters is what verifies. Well, true...but they also put up that watch awhile ago in the area that they deemed had the best chances to meet warning criteria (snow and ice accretion in this event). I can't argue with them on that. It's not set in stone closer in to the I-95 area and east. Now, I won't be surprised if they extend it later this afternoon, and/or put up a large area of advisories east of the watch. We're definitely in advisory criteria at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah there can be another thread if someone wants to discuss that. This is a model/threat thread not what when how whys of LWX. Pretty much know where guidance is unless they throw up some 8-12 map. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I am referring to the immediate DC area...GFS, NAM, RGEM showed way more than 1-2 and 2-3. All three showed at least 3-4 in DC itself...but like Psuhoffman said, LWX forecast doesn't matter, what matters is what verifies. This.... just think what would you rather have the subjective NWS forecast on your side, or the objective guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is when the Euro usually stays stubborn and leaves doubt for everyone. No one is better than modeling models than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Checking in from Boston, was in this subforum the past few years (and on EasternWX) but moved up to New England this year. Congrats on this one, guys, looking better and better and y'all deserve a nice snow more than anyone. Thanks for the good wishes, though a bit early for "congrats" just yet! LOL! Hopefully it will work out well for us. What a year to move up to New England, eh?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well, true...but they also put up that watch awhile ago in the area that they deemed had the best chances to meet warning criteria (snow and ice accretion in this event). I can't argue with them on that. It's not set in stone closer in to the I-95 area and east. Now, I won't be surprised if they extend it later this afternoon, and/or put up a large area of advisories east of the watch. We're definitely in advisory criteria at this point. This season has had models overdo things quite a bit lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 For someone who criticizes my pessimism 90% of your posts are just to throw cold water on our heads. What can I say? I don't predict the weather, I predict the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ha..........I even thanked Matt for a map the other day and didn't realize it was him! HaHa. Surprised you couldnt tell it was him. He has a pretty unique posting style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12z EURO at 24 has a 1008mb SLP in C AR... -4/-5c 850s in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro is faster which is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What can I say? I don't predict the weather, I predict the models. And you are right most of the time, because usually something does go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro is faster which is good What's your confidence level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 LWX said in their discussion that they were awaiting 12Z guidance before making adjustments to watches and warnings. Let the Euro roll in and lets see what comes out in the afternoon package (or sooner!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 For someone who criticizes my pessimism 90% of your posts are just to throw cold water on our heads. The problem will be when the Euro throws cold water on our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I would consider the change in the euro to be more than minor if not huge...earlier, further south, and wetter without the flip coming any earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Its also dry after the flip...go Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 LWX said in their discussion that they were awaiting 12Z guidance before making adjustments to watches and warnings. Let the Euro roll in and lets see what comes out in the afternoon package (or sooner!) I have a hard time understanding why this matters to anyone. Its not like a watch or warning is going to make it snow in YBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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