AlaskaETC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 CWG is truly the best at what they do and I say that with as little bias as possible, but sometimes these maps flummox me...medium confidence that we have a 50% chance of 2-5"... http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/20/winter-storm-to-bring-hazardous-mix-of-snow-and-sleet-to-d-c-area-on-saturday/ Yeah....those maps can be dumbfounding sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That map says I have a chance of 2-9". Is that any different than the goal.post maps nws has that people crap on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 "asteroid" potential (as Bob puts it). That credit goes to leesburg4. I just like the term so much i use it occasionally. We could have comets tomorrow as well. That's all me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm thinking somewhere between 1" and 18" Excellent call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I am glad the Wind Chill Advisory is gone. Now I can see the LWX warning map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 agreed, though every model shows low level warming while we are getting shellacked They do, and sometimes thats right, other times not, also a small layer thats 33 degrees if it is snowing hard wont do too much damage other then to cause snow flake bombs and lower ratios, but were not getting high ratios from this either way. The models could also be off 1 degree too. I just have seen this setup so many times where if you are under the heavy precip you stay snow, once rates decline warming wins out. The UK btw is a lot colder then previous runs...even at 850 it never gets the 0 line to the MD line when 0z got it up to central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 CWG is truly the best at what they do and I say that with as little bias as possible, but sometimes these maps flummox me...medium confidence that we have a 50% chance of 2-5"... http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/20/winter-storm-to-bring-hazardous-mix-of-snow-and-sleet-to-d-c-area-on-saturday/ That's probably reasonable given the model variance on the amplitude and temps, but 2-5 is a gigantic range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think you could say that for the entire county No, I wouldn't say that for the eastern part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No, I wouldn't say that for the eastern part Define Eastern...Anything east of fairfax city or anything east od the western edge of the beltway? Or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Define Eastern...Anything east of fairfax city or anything east od the western edge of the beltway? Or something else? East of me. Springfield, Rose Hill, etc. Every foot of elevation and 1/10 degree of temp will count here. And yes, you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I doubt that few forecasters and none of the computings are accounting for what this low will be trying to overcome. Low to the west does mean lots of rain based on 99% of experiences but right now we are the extraordinary 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 2-5 is a gigantic range. No, it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No, I wouldn't say that for the eastern part agreed for my neck of the non-woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No, it's not. Especially when dealing with ptype issues, elevation, and precip axis uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That map says I have a chance of 2-9". Is that any different than the goal.post maps nws has that people crap on? It's not heavily automated and makes sense based on modeling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 LWX still not convinced on a good front end thump shown by the NAM, RGEM, and 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is going to be a tough one. .5 degrees could make all the difference Everyone, cut back your thermostats at home a couple of degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My guess is they will be adding Carroll, Mont, and Howard to the WSW soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Where is Tenman to tell us it will be a 90%+ snow event? Since he is going to do it at some point, now would be a good time. I doubt that few forecasters and none of the computings are accounting for what this low will be trying to overcome. Low to the west does mean lots of rain based on 99% of experiences but right now we are the extraordinary 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Fwiw, if forecasts ever transition more to a 3-6" range, then I'd expect more wsw's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 updated from 1-3 to 2-4 tomorrow from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's not heavily automated and makes sense based on modeling! I can never tell if you're serious or joking. Taking that as you're serious.....I think it's fine. Just never quite understood why folks seemed to get bent out of shape about the nws maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That credit goes to leesburg4. I just like the term so much i use it occasionally. We could have comets tomorrow as well. That's all me. Who coined "pillows"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 LWX still not convinced on a good front end thump shown by the NAM, RGEM, and 12z GFS Is this a serious post? Or are you just looking at DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I can never tell if you're serious or joking. Taking that as you're serious.....I think it's fine. Just never quite understood why folks seemed to get bent out of shape about the nws maps. Because they usually lowball everyone. Everyone wants to be the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Damn I'm slow. I just realized who WestminsterDeathband is. Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 LWX still not convinced on a good front end thump shown by the NAM, RGEM, and 12z GFS and I am still waiting for my last few warnings to verify, who cares what the NWS forecast is, I care what actually happens and those forecasts often have little to do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Because they usually lowball everyone. Everyone wants to be the jackpot. Why. That's silly. Has nothing to do with anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Damn I'm slow. I just realized who WestminsterDeathband is. Good grief. LOL, I kinda thought a few people hadn't figured it out but I wasn't going to say anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Okay... time for the Euro to come around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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