Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEM has good precip into the area by 1pm. Looks in line with other guidance so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Remember that the same comp. who owns weather.com now owns weather underground...so they are going to be a bit outrageous Really? I wasn't aware of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEM has good precip into the area by 1pm. Looks in line with other guidance so far. I don't have access to lower level temps yet, but for me and you doesn't look like we flip until at least 7-8pm....starts at 10am...5-6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is a good look with precip axis through 18z on the ggem. All signs seem to be pointing more in this direction than further west through this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEM is basically Euro temp profiles with NAM liquid.....Euro better come south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is a good look with precip axis through 18z on the ggem. All signs seem to be pointing more in this direction than further west through this period. ggem18z.JPG Speak Chinese to me Bob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Speak Chinese to me Bob! it's a very good run for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 it's a very good run for you This model has looked good for a few runs now...just remembering how poorly it performed so far this year...still nice eye candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Speak Chinese to me Bob! 100% snow for you (almost all of us). Choose your own ratio and proverb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'd like to know where Weather Underground is getting 8-12" for Baltimore: Saturday 02/21 100% / 5-8 in Snow showers early will transition to a steadier, sometimes heavy, snow. High 31F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches. Saturday Night 02/21 100% / 3-5 in A wintry mix in the evening will transition to mainly rain late. Low 29F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 100%. 3 to 5 inches of snow and ice expected. Thats 8-13 son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 thanks Marcus anyone know what happened to him after the big eastern blow up...I was AWOL when all that went down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4-8 for western fairfax county looks on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4-8 for western fairfax county looks on the table I think you could say that for the entire county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is a good look with precip axis through 18z on the ggem. All signs seem to be pointing more in this direction than further west through this period. ggem18z.JPG How many miles is DC from that 0" line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Was the Ukie posted yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Was the Ukie posted yet? All rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Who would have thought that our best case scenario would include a dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Who would have thought that our best case scenario would include a dry slot? That's always the best shot in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEM is cold yea its almost LOL, still snowing in Richmond at 0z Sunday on the GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ukmet is much better, about 11mm in DC by 7:00pm Saturday. 0.5" + for Central and Northern Maryland. Also the slightest bit colder at the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Fwiw, BUFKIT shows DCA with ~.35" qpf snow and the rest of close to 2" total qpf as rain. That's no fun in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Fwiw, BUFKIT shows DCA with ~.35" qpf snow and the rest of 2" total qpf as rain. That's no fun in my mind. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=gfs&time=2015022012&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ukmet is much better, about 11mm in DC by 7:00pm Saturday. 0.5" + for Central and Northern Maryland. Also the slightest bit colder at the sfc it's not bad though I think we should assume we flip an hour or so before 850 temps go above 0...900-925 should warm in advance...could be sleet for an hour or 2 versus rain though for DC Ukie looks like a noon start and a 5-6pm flip...maybe 0.3" or so as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 why is everyone panicking over rain after the snow. Who cares about what happens once the snow ends....we like to see snow falling. thats 80% of the gig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm thinking somewhere between 1" and 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 it's not bad though I think we should assume we flip an hour or so before 850 temps go above 0...900-925 should warm in advance...could be sleet for an hour or 2 versus rain though for DC Ukie looks like a noon start and a 5-6pm flip...maybe 0.3" or so as snow Probably more like after 8pm... at 36 hrs (7pm SUN), 12z UKIE still has the 2mT at DCA at 31/32 and 850s are fine... unless you meant flip to sleet... i don't know if there is a warm layer in there or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 it's not bad though I think we should assume we flip an hour or so before 850 temps go above 0...900-925 should warm in advance...could be sleet for an hour or 2 versus rain though for DC Ukie looks like a noon start and a 5-6pm flip...maybe 0.3" or so as snow Sometimes if we are in the heavy precip from the WAA thump the profile will be able to stay pretty uniform, once rates dip at all thats when the warming really takes over. I think if we get the nice band of WAA precip in here we stay snow a decent period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 CWG is truly the best at what they do and I say that with as little bias as possible, but sometimes these maps flummox me...medium confidence that we have a 50% chance of 2-5"... http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/20/winter-storm-to-bring-hazardous-mix-of-snow-and-sleet-to-d-c-area-on-saturday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sometimes if we are in the heavy precip from the WAA thump the profile will be able to stay pretty uniform, once rates dip at all thats when the warming really takes over. I think if we get the nice band of WAA precip in here we stay snow a decent period of time. agreed, though every model shows low level warming while we are getting shellacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Fwiw, BUFKIT shows DCA with ~.35" qpf snow and the rest of close to 2" total qpf as rain. That's no fun in my mind. Yea, saw that too. Also saw the big disclaimer in red about the tendency for to "misdiagnose marginally sub-freezing snow-supporting temperature profiles as sleet or rain". At the rate of the deluge, just a slight variance in temps would have a big impact on the precip type shown in the chart. I'm still hoping the change over, if it does happen, holds off till later in the evening to max out the "asteroid" potential (as Bob puts it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.