psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's turning into a real NW event....And this isn't going to be like 2/25/07 when we can wring out all the moisture at 32 and then dry....we're going to flip...every 15 minutes we hold on will be important....and every 15 minutes delayed will be important...It's rarely good when State College has .5"+ of precip and we haven't seen a flake yet I would NEVER question your thoughts for DC as you are excellent for nailing that area, and being in DC pessimism is usually the way to go, but I wouldn't throw in the towel completely yet. I see your concerns and they are legit, but the RGEM has been pretty good this year and it has been a rock insisting there will be a pretty good front end thump in DC. It did not trend north at all the last run. NAM held from 6 to 12z and gets at least a 6 hour period of heavy precip that looks snow/sleety mix into DC proper. GFS also hints at front end potential. Yea you are flirting with that southern edge of the best precip but there has not really been a last minute north trend to most storms this winter so perhaps things hold where they are now and you can get a decent snow before mixing. The rain after issue is going to be close. Once the WAA precip shuts off usually we dry slot. Then there will be a band of rain training along the front that stalls for a while, I think nw of 95 is safe from that but DC east could have to deal with rain but hopefully the worst of it stays southeast of the cities. I think DC still has a chance to do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Knhk.txt there's cobb output for pax nas. On the phone and can't see it now but just Google cobb data output. Select the url for bufkit warehouse and then the data sources link on the menu bar. Zoom in on the map and you'll see the location. Thanks, both of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM snow precip map. SN_000-048_0000.gif 25 inches works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 If the euro follows, wsw will fly. If the euro holds, office mets hands will start to sweat. Just like ours. lol its funny how the euro is always the last model to run. Its like it sees all its kids misbehaving and then comes in at 2:00 to say....Stop! No! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 25 inches works for me Its MM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I would much rather have an all frozen event, even if that means sleet/zr, then a heavy thump followed by cold rain. I forgot to mention that surface temps on GFS during the heaviest snow are very cold. By 18z we have 3 inches on the ground and the 2m temps are in the mid to uppers teens. Seems to be the coldest of all the guidance. This run gives us very little plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I forgot to mention that surface temps on GFS during the heaviest snow are very cold. By 18z we have 3 inches on the ground and the 2m temps are in the mid to uppers teens. Seems to be the coldest of all the guidance. This run gives us very little plain rain. GFS gives little plain rain, or the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Its MM He knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 I forgot to mention that surface temps on GFS during the heaviest snow are very cold. By 18z we have 3 inches on the ground and the 2m temps are in the mid to uppers teens. Seems to be the coldest of all the guidance. This run gives us very little plain rain. thanks Marcus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I forgot to mention that surface temps on GFS during the heaviest snow are very cold. By 18z we have 3 inches on the ground and the 2m temps are in the mid to uppers teens. Seems to be the coldest of all the guidance. This run gives us very little plain rain. I see plenty of plain rain on the GFS at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Its MM WHAT?!?! No way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I see plenty of plain rain on the GFS at 42 Not Baltimore North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not Baltimore North looks rainy to me. I'd much rather have the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS gives little plain rain, or the NAM? Nice catch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS gives little plain rain, or the NAM? GFS. I haven't looked at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I see plenty of plain rain on the GFS at 42 That's what I was thinking, from what I saw. Guess it depends on where one is located. But for the metro area(s), looks like a good slug of rain after it changes over, then it dries out Sunday. I mostly just gave a quick look at 12 hour amounts through 00Z Saturday evening when we'd have snow...and then 00Z Sat-12Z Sun when we'd be mostly or almost all rain from what it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I see plenty of plain rain on the GFS at 42 I'm going by Accuweather text for Westminster. Looks like maybe .20 of rain tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Are we still looking at temps in the 60s on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS. I haven't looked at the NAM. Cool - looked boderline. Right at or above freezing around hr42, before falling again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 thanks Marcus Your welcome. What else can I do for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Will I finally get a 4 inch event this winter? That's all I want at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I would NEVER question your thoughts for DC as you are excellent for nailing that area, and being in DC pessimism is usually the way to go, but I wouldn't throw in the towel completely yet. I see your concerns and they are legit, but the RGEM has been pretty good this year and it has been a rock insisting there will be a pretty good front end thump in DC. It did not trend north at all the last run. NAM held from 6 to 12z and gets at least a 6 hour period of heavy precip that looks snow/sleety mix into DC proper. GFS also hints at front end potential. Yea you are flirting with that southern edge of the best precip but there has not really been a last minute north trend to most storms this winter so perhaps things hold where they are now and you can get a decent snow before mixing. The rain after issue is going to be close. Once the WAA precip shuts off usually we dry slot. Then there will be a band of rain training along the front that stalls for a while, I think nw of 95 is safe from that but DC east could have to deal with rain but hopefully the worst of it stays southeast of the cities. I think DC still has a chance to do ok. Thanks...I'm not throwing in the towel...GFS is pretty good...even verbatim, NAM drops 2-3" here....I'm just already having nightmares of watching radar training to my NW for hours before a flake falls here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just looking at the GFS soundings at 36 hr in DC we are still pretty close to a snow sounding with 0.75+ QPF......it's starting to seem possible that we pull off 5-6 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'd like to know where Weather Underground is getting 8-12" for Baltimore: Saturday 02/21 100% / 5-8 in Snow showers early will transition to a steadier, sometimes heavy, snow. High 31F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches. Saturday Night 02/21 100% / 3-5 in A wintry mix in the evening will transition to mainly rain late. Low 29F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 100%. 3 to 5 inches of snow and ice expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just looking at the GFS soundings at 36 hr in DC we are still pretty close to a snow sounding with 0.75+ QPF......it's starting to seem possible that we pull off 5-6+ inches here. Here's the 0z Sunday sounding on the north side of 495. With heavy rates, that's probably still wet snow, but certainly would be getting some rimed flakes and maybe the occasional pinger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think this event deserves a Double Secret Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is going to be a tough one. .5 degrees could make all the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'd like to know where Weather Underground is getting 8-12" for Baltimore: Saturday 02/21 100% / 5-8 in Snow showers early will transition to a steadier, sometimes heavy, snow. High 31F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches. Saturday Night 02/21 100% / 3-5 in A wintry mix in the evening will transition to mainly rain late. Low 29F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 100%. 3 to 5 inches of snow and ice expected. Their automated forecast product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEM is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Remember that the same comp. who owns weather.com now owns weather underground...so they are going to be a bit outrageous I'd like to know where Weather Underground is getting 8-12" for Baltimore: Saturday 02/21 100% / 5-8 in Snow showers early will transition to a steadier, sometimes heavy, snow. High 31F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 5 to 8 inches. Saturday Night 02/21 100% / 3-5 in A wintry mix in the evening will transition to mainly rain late. Low 29F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 100%. 3 to 5 inches of snow and ice expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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