Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Score! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS looks like a good hit before the changeover, snowmaps showing 6 inches close to DC. It starts at like 11am and the moisture approach is more favorable...we have 3" on the ground at 4pm, and then we are barely flipped at 7...it will pile up between 4 and 7 the longer we can hold on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Leaving the tropics of Florida shortly...or more like temps in the 50s. Hoping this front end thump works so we're not ripped off by these frigid temps. Gotta get something out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Last 3 NAM runs for jyo for snow 0z 5.4" 6z 4.1" 12z 3.7" 3 inches and then it can rain and then I don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It starts at like 11am and the moisture approach is more favorable...we have 3" on the ground at 4pm, and then we are barely flipped at 7...it will pile up between 4 and 7 the longer we can hold on.... Yeah even if it does rain a lot in the evening/overnight during the day tomorrow will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hopefully the 12z GFS will prompt LWX to expand the WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Score! Those maps dont really bring much value... I think that has been said a bunch here before. lol... I love these maps!! keep'm coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS would be hot and heavy from 1-4pm. Parachutes and asteroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 LITTLE CHANGE TO MRNG FORECAST...WILL LOOK AT THE NOON DEADLINEFOR POSSIBLE CANCELLATION/EXTENSION DEPENDING ON CONDITIONS.AWAITING 12Z GUIDANCE UPDATES FOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES FOR THESAT/SUN STORM SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z NAM Cobb info: DCA 3.3 inches of snow IAD 4.3 inches of snow BWI 5.4 inches snow MRB 5.7 inches snow WOO 7.9 inches snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM snow precip map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I drove around the area yesterday including Rockville and Alexandria....if we get another 2-4" of snow on top of the existing...come Monday the majority of the posts will be about how well their snow pack held despite the rain....it simply just won't was away...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Last 3 NAM runs for jyo for snow 0z 5.4" 6z 4.1" 12z 3.7" stop trolling your own snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM snow precip map. SN_000-048_0000.gif cute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I've drove around the area yesterday including Rockville and Alexandria....if we get another 2-4" of snow on top of the existing...come Monday the majority of the posts will be about how well their snow pack held despite the rain....it simply just won't was away...sorry If we can get a sleet/ice topper it will help for a bit with rain running off the top then saturation. Certainly not going to melt from bottom up either. Looking forward to the potential glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z NAM Cobb info: DCA 3.3 inches of snow IAD 4.3 inches of snow BWI 5.4 inches snow MRB 5.7 inces snow WOO 7.9 inches snow Westminster: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hopefully the 12z GFS will prompt LWX to expand the WSW Only the best case scenario guidance would support that, imo. GFS is borderline 5-6" and considering how rarely we have scored its actual modeled accumulations this season I would vote against a wsw, especially considering it's a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 stop trolling your own snow Lol...just setting the expectations Mr. 4-8" That was funny though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If we can get a sleet/ice topper it will help for a bit with rain running off the top then saturation. Certainly not going to melt from bottom up either. Looking forward to the potential glacier. That would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM snow precip map. SN_000-048_0000.gif I am guessing that is QPF... so 20 mm equals almost 8 inches at 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What is it with the fascination with WSW's? Those don't make it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What is it with the fascination with WSW's? Those don't make it snow. Gives us the sense that LWX Mets on our side. Also makes fantasy more of a reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What is it with the fascination with WSW's? Those don't make it snow. They decrease weenie suicides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If the euro follows, wsw will fly. If the euro holds, office mets hands will start to sweat. Just like ours. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Westminster: 7 Per Accuweather text. .56 all snow. Then about .35 of which half is sleet and zr. Temp never gets above 34-35. Nasty event shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 12Z NAM Cobb info: DCA 3.3 inches of snow IAD 4.3 inches of snow BWI 5.4 inches snow MRB 5.7 inches snow WOO 7.9 inches snow Does the NAM (or really any of these models) ever give output for Patuxent (KNHK)? It would be really helpful to many down here if that were posted too when discussing model runs, but I don't know if that's included. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Let me try this for a change... .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGHSATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THEOHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWWILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWTO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW FOR AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF WARM AND MOIST AIRTO OVERRUN THE SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE. AT THE SAMETIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA AND ASTRONG MID-LEVEL JETMAX WILL ALSO BE SWINGING THROUGH. THE DYNAMICSCOMBINED WITH THE OVERRUNNING SHOULD WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TOOVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS SNOWIN MOST AREAS...AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BEFOREENOUGH WARM AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN TO CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH SATURDAYMORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITANAREAS LATER SATURDAY MORNING TOWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATINGSNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS AND THIS WOULD MAKE TRAVELLINGDIFFICULT. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERNAND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC...NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND...ANDCENTRAL VIRGINIA AS WELL AS FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUERIDGE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR POSSIBLEWARNING CRITERIA SNOW...BECAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING INEARLIER ACROSS THESE AREAS ALLOWING FOR A LARGER TIMEFRAME FOR ALLSNOW. FARTHER EAST...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY BUT CONFIDENCE ISNOT QUITE AS HIGH FOR POSSIBLE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW. THEREFORE...AWATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX AND ICE ACCUMULATION FROMFREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WARMERAIR WILL WORK IN OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION MAY TAPER OFF AS DRIERTHE DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...ICEACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ORLESS FOR MOST AREAS. HAZARDOUS TRAVELLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELYACROSS MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT...BECAUSE EVEN WITH TEMPS ABOVEFREEZING THE PAVEMENT TEMPS MAY HAVE A SLOWER TIME RESPONDING TO THERECENT COLD CONDITIONS.THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLANDAND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT WHERE THE AIR WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FORRAIN. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.TOOK POPS DOWN FOR MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME DUE TO DRIER AIRPUSHING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE DRY SLOT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGEFROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 40S INCENTRAL VIRGINIA.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does the NAM (or really any of these models) ever give output for Patuxent (KNHK)? It would be really helpful to many down here if that were posted too when discussing model runs, but I don't know if that's included. Thanks. NAM http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Knhk.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Does the NAM (or really any of these models) ever give output for Patuxent (KNHK)? It would be really helpful to many down here if that were posted too when discussing model runs, but I don't know if that's included. Thanks. there's cobb output for pax nas. On the phone and can't see it now but just Google cobb data output. Select the url for bufkit warehouse and then the data sources link on the menu bar. Zoom in on the map and you'll see the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Per Accuweather text. .56 all snow. Then about .35 of which half is sleet and zr. Temp never gets above 34-35. Nasty event shaping up. I would much rather have an all frozen event, even if that means sleet/zr, then a heavy thump followed by cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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