clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res is a dream run. Surface stays below freezing until the precip shuts off. Rain is south of dc. If the rgem looks similar I might start getting more excited than skeptical. The 6Z RGEM looked almost identical to the 12Z NAM. They are both beatdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM looked solid but rainy on the back-end. edit: actually nasomuch, looks fairly light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I didn't think it looked that rainy on the back end. Look more showery for the most part. I think that's about the best we can do getting slammed with snow and then avoiding as much rain as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 OMG! the RGEM is the absolutely perfect solution. All snow followed by a dry slot out here. Lets just lock that in and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That's 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM 11-12 hours of snow before any flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM has been steadfast at a pretty big front end thump. Hres nam looks quite similar. We can only pray and worry at this point. RGEM has onset in the cities close to 10am. That's quicker than other guidance. Dumping @ 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't like the orientation of the precip approach on the euro/nam...too much waiting and too much time for us to wa It sounds really trite to say, but we really need that initial slug to hit us late morning. If we are watching that pass to our NW, we run into a very lame scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That's 00z Sorry about that. Here is the correct weenie map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Don't know if means anything. But looking at radar. The precip breaking down south is moving more east- se than ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Don't know if means anything. But looking at radar. The precip breaking down south is moving more east- se than ne. The stuff in the deep south wasn't even forecasted. Light freezing drizzle caught the offices off guard a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_Washington.png that is perfect since it has very little plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The stuff in the deep south wasn't even forecasted. Light freezing drizzle caught the offices off guard a little. maybe the RGEM sees that, hence the earlier start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The stuff in the deep south wasn't even forecasted. Light freezing drizzle caught the offices off guard a little. Yea sure did. But I was just refering to the motion. I would think farther east would be good for getting precip in here earlier ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 maybe the RGEM sees that, hence the earlier start? Haha, "RGEM sees all' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It sounds really trite to say, but we really need that initial slug to hit us late morning. If we are watching that pass to our NW, we run into a very lame scenario. It's turning into a real NW event....And this isn't going to be like 2/25/07 when we can wring out all the moisture at 32 and then dry....we're going to flip...every 15 minutes we hold on will be important....and every 15 minutes delayed will be important...It's rarely good when State College has .5"+ of precip and we haven't seen a flake yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The stuff in the deep south wasn't even forecasted. Light freezing drizzle caught the offices off guard a little. Amped>the thunderstorms will steal our moisture<Amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Where is Tenman to tell us it will be a 90%+ snow event? Since he is going to do it at some point, now would be a good time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Amped>the thunderstorms will steal our moisture<Amped That's actually a legit concern if the precip is moving almost south to north. It does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Where is Tenman to tell us it will be a 90%+ snow event? Since he is going to do it at some point, now would be a good time. he is likely sleeping. i'm concerned about barometer readings and stability of the moisture package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS is tasty...further south...makes a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS looks like a good hit before the changeover, snowmaps showing 6 inches close to DC. ETA: Heavy rain right after the flip though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Last 3 NAM runs for jyo for snow 0z 5.4" 6z 4.1" 12z 3.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The GFS looks much better with the initial slug of moisture. Still has heavy rain for everyone after the thump though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestPaLion Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like the GFS gets precip here about 15Z with 540 line still near the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS is perfect. Goes right in line with rgem/hres nam. This is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS looks like a good hit before the changeover, snowmaps showing 6 inches close to DC. ETA: Heavy rain right after the flip though http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022012&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=039 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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