North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 i was focusing on the detail that its going to snow, then rain at 33. in February. On the heels of a historic cold snap to boot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 i was focusing on the detail that its going to snow, then rain at 33. in February. We call that variable weather in the business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On the heels of a historic cold snap to boot... f- it, I'm moving south to RR's hood. He is guaranteed to get at least six inches. eta: of snow. pervs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 i was focusing on the detail that its going to snow, then rain at 33. in February. We call that variable weather in the business Or the new 'normal' for the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Or the new 'normal' for the MA Nothing new about it. It's how winter weather is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 f- it, I'm moving south to RR's hood. He is guaranteed to get at least six inches. eta: of snow. pervs. lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On the heels of a historic cold snap to boot... I've reached acceptance... as much as I'd hate to see it happen, it's going to rain. But I'm gonna go all CTBlizz and hope it's 33 degree rain that won't wash away my snow and will freeze it solid instead. Wouldn't that be cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro? Looks much colder at 72hr then even the 6z GFS, but I don't know how much precip has gotten to us by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I've reached acceptance... as much as I'd hate to see it happen, it's going to rain. But I'm gonna go all CTBlizz and hope it's 33 degree rain that won't wash away my snow and will freeze it solid instead. Wouldn't that be cool? No. if its going to rain, then let it be 50 and rain, so it all disappears. Not an annoying reminder that it could be snowing but instead Mother Nature decided to give us the finger, rise to 33* and then dump .3-.5 qpf on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 When I first read that I swore it read as.....'he's guaranteed to give at least 6 inches'. I was like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 When I first read that I swore it read as.....'he's guaranteed to give at least 6 inches'. I was like I don't need to travel for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro? Looks much colder at 72hr then even the 6z GFS, but I don't know how much precip has gotten to us by then. Using wunderground at 75h 0.175-0.25 has fallen and the surface freezing line/850 freezing lines are both south of the cities. From 75 on we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good news with rain--free car wash for all! Meh. Who am I kidding. I'd gladly pay $12 at the Exxon wash if it was going to be another pure snow event. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good news with rain--free car wash for all! Meh. Who am I kidding. I'd gladly pay $12 at the Exxon wash if it was going to be another pure snow event. :-( if it keeps trending, it just may be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good news with rain--free car wash for all! Meh. Who am I kidding. I'd gladly pay $12 at the Exxon wash if it was going to be another pure snow event. :-( $12? hell, I'll do it for 8. kids need exercise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I don't need to travel for that Lmfao! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Weatherbell maps pretty similar. 2-4" DC up to BWI on both NAM and GFS 6z runs. Interested to see if "Mitch's trend" continues. Certainly did look colder. Of course weenie UKMET snow map has 4-6 for the corridor. Either way, I guess signs are there its trending a bit on the colder side of the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Weatherbell maps pretty similar. 2-4" DC up to BWI on both NAM and GFS 6z runs. Interested to see if "Mitch's trend" continues. Certainly did look colder. Of course weenie UKMET snow map has 4-6 for the corridor. Either way, I guess signs are there its trending a bit on the colder side of the envelope. Ukmet is overdone. Go wash dc panel and look at 850's. Prob 2-4" snow followed by sleet/zr/rain. Still a good solution and in line with 6z USA stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Weatherbell maps pretty similar. 2-4" DC up to BWI on both NAM and GFS 6z runs. Interested to see if "Mitch's trend" continues. Certainly did look colder. Of course weenie UKMET snow map has 4-6 for the corridor. Either way, I guess signs are there its trending a bit on the colder side of the envelope. I'd take something like that at this point, even if the Ukie is overdone. What I'm hoping for (perhaps vainly!) is: (1)the amount of all-rain is a lot less so we don't just get everything washed away, including what we've got on the ground now, and (2)it's not as much of a torch at the surface, or at least for as long a time before the cold air returns. At this point, it's all but a guarantee we'll be flipping to rain late Saturday night or early Sunday (depending on where one lives, I suppose). I'd like to see the stuff that falls after that change-over minimized if possible, before it gets cold again. Oh, and not sure I saw as much excitement for the back-end wave or whatever it was, which showed up the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hmmm... 12z NAM has precip in here Sat morning... 54 and 57 are snow (I checked soundings for DCA) ETA: This should be a decent run.... 850 0c and 32 2mT line are down by the NC/VA border at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'd take the NAM... I think everyone would. Pity it's the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 comparing the 12Z at 39hrs. to yesterday's 18Z at 57, you can see the difference out west how much weaker and more progressive the trough is that is leading us to a colder solution vs. the amped/warm solutions yesterday 39 hrs. on top http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_039_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150219+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=057ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_057_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150218+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 wow- nam is more sheared and further south with the vort. Heights moved in the right direction. wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'd take the NAM... I think everyone would. Pity it's the NAM... but the 6Z GFS was near identical to the 6Z NAM sooooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 comparing the 12Z at 39hrs. to yesterday's 18Z at 57, you can see the difference out west how much weaker and more progressive the trough is that is leading us to a colder solution vs. the amped/warm solutions yesterday 39 hrs. on top http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_039_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150219+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=057ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_057_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150218+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model wow- nam is more sheared and further south with the vort. Heights moved in the right direction. wtf you should be officially scared lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 54 hr. sim/rad, and that's all snow folks http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150219+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 DCA at 60 is sleet... just changed over from snow prob at hr 59 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 you should be officially scared lol widespread 3-6 by 0z sun? and still coming? WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM is a solid event for all! Weird that with the past couple events we are trending better as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 widespread 3-6 by 0z sun? and still coming? WTF idk who this guy JI is, but we've got to get him to start more threads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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