I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 353 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 (snip) THE DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH THE OVERRUNNING SHOULD WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS SNOW IN MOST AREAS...AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE ENOUGH WARM AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN TO CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATER SATURDAY MORNING TOWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS AND THIS WOULD MAKE TRAVELLING DIFFICULT. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC...NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS WELL AS FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR POSSIBLE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW...BECAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING IN EARLIER ACROSS THESE AREAS ALLOWING FOR A LARGER TIMEFRAME FOR ALL SNOW. FARTHER EAST...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH FOR POSSIBLE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW. THEREFORE...A WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX AND ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL WORK IN OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION MAY TAPER OFF AS DRIER THE DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS. HAZARDOUS TRAVELLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT...BECAUSE EVEN WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THE PAVEMENT TEMPS MAY HAVE A SLOWER TIME RESPONDING TO THE RECENT COLD CONDITIONS. They said they issued a Watch in this disco , but it oddly doesn't show up on the NWS website or any product advertising their headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Run to run text output gonna swing big time as each model will handle the warm air differently. Hate to sound all Tenman like but any HP off the coast that is at our lat or above will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 They said they issued a Watch in this disco , but it oddly doesn't show up on the NWS website or any product advertising their headlines. Looks like it runs from Frederick Co. Md and west from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 06z NAM PLEASE Cobb 00z NAM 7.5 snow .83 qpf .13 sleet .02 fzra 06z NAM 11.6 snow .9 qpf .01 sleet .2 fzra .1 rain 00z GFS 3.3 snow .5 qpf .4 rain 06z GFS 4.6 snow .5 qpf .5 fzra (NO THANK YOU) .2 rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RPM No. Bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 They said they issued a Watch in this disco , but it oddly doesn't show up on the NWS website or any product advertising their headlines. Frederick west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 need to chase in WV to get the good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 06z NAM PLEASE Cobb 00z NAM 7.5 snow .83 qpf .13 sleet .02 fzra 06z NAM 11.6 snow .9 qpf .01 sleet .2 fzra .1 rain 00z GFS 3.3 snow .5 qpf .4 rain 06z GFS 4.6 snow .5 qpf .5 fzra (NO THANK YOU) .2 rain I'm with you. Ill take the 6Z NAM and the 6Z RGEM. They are both big storms north and west of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Tom Kierein likes 2-4 in the cities. 4-7 north and west. Seems like a decent call. Man I hope he's right -- if we managed that, and only had light rain/drizzle after it would be a huge win. Side note: just what would this month had been like with even just a slightly negative NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We need a few stabilizing runs over the next 12 hours. I feel the rope we are swinging on is beginning to fray a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Lol...no that's western Loudoun....purcelville on west..new zones. I'm just busting your chops...you know that.lol my phone says watch. Zip 20175. We must be in different codes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Man I have seen forecasts of 1-3,2-4,and 5-8 for leesburg. Hopefully this trends colder today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 lol my phone says watch. Zip 20175. We must be in different codes The NWS will show the specific zone watch but a general app will show it as Loudoun county...it is confusing for sure. Trust me though, the official watch is for western Loudoun only for now...I bet we get a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 06z NAM PLEASE Cobb 00z NAM 7.5 snow .83 qpf .13 sleet .02 fzra 06z NAM 11.6 snow .9 qpf .01 sleet .2 fzra .1 rain 00z GFS 3.3 snow .5 qpf .4 rain 06z GFS 4.6 snow .5 qpf .5 fzra (NO THANK YOU) .2 rain Yes please!! Is anyone's Allison House data not working this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Geez. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The NWS will show the specific zone watch but a general app will show it as Loudoun county...it is confusing for sure. Trust me though, the official watch is for western Loudoun only for now...I bet we get a WWA Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 411 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 MDZ003-004-502-VAZ027>031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-055-502-504- 201715- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0004.150221T1100Z-150222T1100Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.WC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-150220T1700Z/ WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-SHENANDOAH- FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-NORTHERN FAUQUIER- WESTERN LOUDOUN-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- EASTERN GRANT-EASTERN MINERAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...CUMBERLAND... WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...WASHINGTON...WARRENTON... PURCELLVILLE...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD... PETERSBURG...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY 411 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...SNOW STARTING SATURDAY MORNING...MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. * WIND CHILL...15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING SATURDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THAT CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROST BITE. SNOW AND ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVELLING CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The NWS will show the specific zone watch but a general app will show it as Loudoun county...it is confusing for sure. Trust me though, the official watch is for western Loudoun only for now...I bet we get a WWA Correct, when you enter the zip code for these weather apps they just corroborate what US County it is for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 West and North FTW. Not sure why we get less frozen, my guess is that the heavier precip holds back west until that RAGING warm nose gets over MBY so that I get an inch of snow/sleet then pounding torrential rainfall. Consolation prize: Leesburg gets good snows as does CharlesTown, and Maryland. THAT makes all of the torrential rain and springlike weather on Sunday, together with losing 100 percent of my snowpack, worth it. That raging south flow WILL give Dale City highs in the low 50s Sunday afternoon with wall to wall abundant sun. Ppl are gonna be strolling around with t-shirts on lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gfs is wet and cold for jyo....I'm not sure how much is snow but surface temps are cooperating no doubt...0z was a big ole freezy rain mess....I'm guessing same with 6z. As far as the nam...was 5"+ last night and is around 4" this morning. 0z gfs http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kjyo.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The latest SREFS aren't any better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gfs is wet and cold for jyo....I'm not sure how much is snow but surface temps are cooperating no doubt...0z was a big ole freezy rain mess....I'm guessing same with 6z. As far as the nam...was 5"+ last night and is around 4" this morning. 0z gfs http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kjyo.txt Honestly I have no concern what potential amounts may be. This winter is to go low end. Maybe 2-4 for W. Loudoun before changeover. This winter can't be over soon enough. Maybe this thing gets all sleety and we can call it the Crunch Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM is starting up. Fingers crossed for a run like the 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The latest SREFS aren't any better What did SREFS have for the "fairy dust fart storm"? (Thanks H2O?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Honestly I have no concern what potential amounts may be. This winter is to go low end. Maybe 2-4 for W. Loudoun before changeover. This winter can't be over soon enough. Maybe this thing gets all sleety and we can call it the Crunch Storm. I'm all in for a sleet bomb!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 The latest SREFS aren't any betterfor what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 for what? For heavy early precip, for 850 temps, for a cessation of the north trend...take your pick. Somebody did say the sref runs use old data, so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Man I have seen forecasts of 1-3,2-4,and 5-8 for leesburg. Hopefully this trends colder today! Lol. Your forecast then is for 1-8. I'm sure that is helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Srefs have been way too warm and wet/north for every storm all winter. Not just here either. The early feb storm just 12 hours out they showed all rain for nyc and northern nj. Was watching because of friends there. Northern nj ended up with 8-12" and nyc 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Didn't stay up for the euro. So so run. Ukie detailed panels are actually pretty decen. Column holds until 0z for most of us. 6z short range looks fine. 6z Rgem looked pretty sweet. 2-4/3-5 still seems the best range. Most if not all precip that falls before 0z sun will be snow depending on location. Hopefully we tick back towards getting more precip in earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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