Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The thump is in western PA........still probably 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well now we have just enough chaos in the modeling to put off any WSW. UKMET and EURO basically suck, if for different reasons. Let's hope the GFS and NAM and GEM hold it down with today's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well now we have just enough chaos in the modeling to put off any WSW. UKMET and EURO basically suck, if for different reasons. Let's hope the GFS and NAM and GEM hold it down with today's runs Not likely, GEFS mean looks like 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not likely, GEFS mean looks like 00z Euro. Not really. GEFS is 0.3-0.4" QPF through 00z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not likely, GEFS mean looks like 00z Euro. As I said let's **hope** Anyway we've still got the NAM/GEM combo... Now that's pretty deadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro Hecs day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 6z nam continues north shift with bullseye trend unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 New NWS numbers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC353 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 (snip) THE DYNAMICSCOMBINED WITH THE OVERRUNNING SHOULD WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TOOVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS SNOWIN MOST AREAS...AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BEFOREENOUGH WARM AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN TO CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH SATURDAYMORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITANAREAS LATER SATURDAY MORNING TOWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATINGSNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS AND THIS WOULD MAKE TRAVELLINGDIFFICULT. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERNAND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC...NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND...ANDCENTRAL VIRGINIA AS WELL AS FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUERIDGE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR POSSIBLEWARNING CRITERIA SNOW...BECAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING INEARLIER ACROSS THESE AREAS ALLOWING FOR A LARGER TIMEFRAME FOR ALLSNOW. FARTHER EAST...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY BUT CONFIDENCE ISNOT QUITE AS HIGH FOR POSSIBLE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW. THEREFORE...AWATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX AND ICE ACCUMULATION FROMFREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WARMERAIR WILL WORK IN OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION MAY TAPER OFF AS DRIERTHE DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...ICEACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ORLESS FOR MOST AREAS. HAZARDOUS TRAVELLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELYACROSS MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT...BECAUSE EVEN WITH TEMPS ABOVEFREEZING THE PAVEMENT TEMPS MAY HAVE A SLOWER TIME RESPONDING TO THERECENT COLD CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The NWS maps for DCA range from zip to 6.7 inches. TV9 just posted 1-3 with the transition to 3-6 clipping Tyson's Corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS Charleston just put up winter storm warnings for their areas. Nearest to the MA: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV416 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARLINTON...ELKINS416 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THISMORNING......WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AMEST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES.* TIMING...BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...MID 20S TO MID 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That rain is going to soak the snow but good --- but what is going to really return us to pre Feb 16 ground conditions will be wall to wall sunshine with temps in the mid 40s on Sunday, more likely upper 40s along with relatively high dewpoints. I dont care if that ground is 100 below zero - that sun plus mild upper 40s will destroy around 90 percent of the areal snow cover no matter how you slice it. The north facing areas in Dale City may have patchy traces, that is, patches of snow left over that are one thirty secondth of an inch thick. Bye snowpack, we hardly knew ya. Then, once the snow is safely melted off of our lawns, back to the deep freeze and dry. What a familiar pattern Consolation prize though is Maryland getting at least 5-6 inches of new snow plus Sunday highs around freezing should preserve their pack. This should at least help make up for the screw job they suffered last Monday. I wish they were getting at least ten inches with no rain; their climo requires it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah but sounds like Saturday will still be a great day for a span of hours before the heat commeth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah but sounds like Saturday will still be a great day for a span of hours before the heat commeth Yeah Saturday will be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS Blackburg just hoisted Winter Storm Warnings for coverage area...this one for my county VAZ019-020-WVZ043-044-507-508-201815-/O.UPG.KRNK.WS.A.0002.150221T0500Z-150222T1100Z//O.NEW.KRNK.WS.W.0003.150221T0500Z-150222T1100Z//O.CON.KRNK.WC.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150220T1500Z/ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...HINTON...HIX...UNION505 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THISMORNING......WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AMEST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AMEST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...AN UP TOA 0.10 OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.* LOCATIONS...GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.* HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS INTO THIS MORNING. AMIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM LATE TONIGHTINTO SUNDAY MORNING.* TIMING...LOW WIND CHILLS INTO THIS MORNING...THEN WINTRY WEATHERTONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA ARE LIKELY IF LEFT EXPOSEDTO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. FROZEN PIPES COULD BURSTDUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONSCOULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES BY EARLY INTHE WEEKEND.* WINDS...WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING THROUGH THISMORNING.* TEMPERATURES...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING....10 BELOW TO 0.* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 20 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THIS MORNING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR ANDSTRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THISWILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONSARE NOT TAKEN.A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hi/res NAM is an crush job, DCA below freezing until 04z/05z Sunday. RGEM similar, DCA below freezing until 01z/02z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro Hecs day 9 That's the one I want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is a highly sketchy warning for Blacksburg. Looks like they've pushed there poker chips all in on the 6z GFS, because that is really the only model down this way other than the cmc to a degree that even shows remotely close to what they've forecasted. Hey, I guess it's nice to be surprised sometimes when it's pouring the dendrites down. Cheers everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is a highly sketchy warning for Blacksburg. Looks like they've pushed there poker chips all in on the 6z GFS, because that is really the only model down this way other than the cmc to a degree that even shows remotely close to what they've forecasted. Hey, I guess it's nice to be surprised sometimes when it's pouring the dendrites down. Cheers everyone. I kinda agree. But I'll take each and every flake if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 6z nam continues north shift with bullseye trend unfortunately. not bad at all imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Precip starting to develop in the south - you can just see it starting http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's funny....typically, the snow maps are too high with their snowfall. Now I think it's the cobb data for this event. For the 6z NAM cobb is BWI: 6.5" DCA: 4.4" IAD: 5.8" Bwi and DCA both get about an inch of rain after the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 1-3" then rain for Leesburg...poor ji sorta pulled the trigger on 4-8" last night before the euro. I got home late and checked the gfs...even it was mostly freezing rain here so I wasn't sure about the excitement. Anywho 1-3.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 1-3" then rain for Leesburg...poor ji sorta pulled the trigger on 4-8" last night before the euro. I got home late and checked the gfs...even it was mostly freezing rain here so I wasn't sure about the excitement. Anywho 1-3.... i didnt pull the trigger on anything. i was trying to forecast what the NWS would do for our area and we are are under a WSW for 5 or more inches: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Tom Kierein likes 2-4 in the cities. 4-7 north and west. Seems like a decent call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That's the one I want end of season crush job, HM predicted more snow to come for midatlantic in 7-10 period on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Tom Kierein likes 2-4 in the cities. 4-7 north and west. Seems like a decent call. I hope all of Maryland gets that 7 inches of powder snow with no rain at all, then 32 degrees on Sunday followed by cold to preserve their pack, even if I have a lot of rain and 47 on Sunday morning. Perhaps a 10 inch lolli for Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 WBAL just showed the RPM and it has 2-4 from the bay into parts of the NW burbs with higher amounts in the far NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That's the one I wantThe setup is really good except for the nao. If it doesn't happen it probably will be because the raging +nao causes the progressive northern jet to squash rather then phase with the gulf system. We want more amped and phased solution this time because it's starting out further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 i didnt pull the trigger on anything. i was trying to forecast what the NWS would do for our area and we are are under a WSW for 5 or more inches: Lol...no that's western Loudoun....purcelville on west..new zones. I'm just busting your chops...you know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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