Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Amen my brother.. I find most pleasure in watching it fall It's a jacked up pattern and banged up event. I expected mostly if not all rain until recently. Worrying about keeping snow cover seems pretty silly. I'll enjoy the F out of Saturday if we get pasted and turn my head the other way when things go above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hr 48, ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hr 48, ukmet I don't like the position of that 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't like the position of that 540 all the models had it switching by then the question is what does the 42 hr. map look like because there should be some precip to fall on that one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's a jacked up pattern and banged up event. I expected mostly if not all rain until recently. Worrying about keeping snow cover seems pretty silly. I'll enjoy the F out of Saturday if we get pasted and turn my head the other way when things go above freezing Who really cares all that much about having a snowpack around forever anyway? It's pretty the first couple days (or less if you're in a city) but then it becomes hideous and a pedestrian nuisance. Not to mention all the salt all over the place. Plan on spending the day outside Saturday to take it all in. Bring a camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ugh this is much warmer. 12z 00z Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM snowfall wasn't posted so.... .....OK......and just WHY does the RGEM think my area is so special to paint 12-16 across it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The best part would be it would be during the day. Even last year... most of the heavy snow was during the overnight hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 all the models had it switching by then the question is what does the 42 hr. map look like because there should be some precip to fall on that one too indeed.. yoda must have broken his crtl key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ugh this is much warmer. 12z 00z Sent from my iPad at least the UKMet doesn't have all that much rain after the switch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It is still the UKMET. Go with the colder solutions, they're coming from better models. Plus they give us more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 all the models had it switching by then the question is what does the 42 hr. map look like because there should be some precip to fall on that one too About 3mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It is still the UKMET Which happens to be probably the best model this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't like the position of that 540 we're all fine at 850mb at 48....Not sure about other levels, but I would guess all snow...about 0.25" has fallen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 we're all fine at 850mb at 48....Not sure about other levels, but I would guess all snow...about 0.25" has fallen... 2m temps are right at freezing... 31/32 at DCA... too bad we can't see if the column is okay at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 at least the UKMet doesn't have all that much rain after the switch huh?...we get deluged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Which happens to be probably the best model this winter. Really?! I get that it's sniffed out stuff but could really have better verification scores than the GFS and EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 huh?...we get deluged yeah, I looked at the 12z and realized it after I posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So tonights 00z runs: Good RGEM NAM GFS GGEM 4km HI-RES NAM Bad UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Really?! I get that it's sniffed out stuff but could really have better verification scores than the GFS and EURO? I don't know about verification scores, but from following it all winter it has been excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 a lot of rain after a lot of snow is really not much fun so I just hope the models are wrong on that score, but most are headed that way or are there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Verification is on a global scale. When it comes to yards it changes things. Euro/gfs/ukmet all have done well in our yards at close leads with different events. Euro probably the best inside of 48-72 in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So tonights 00z runs: Good RGEM NAM GFS GGEM 4km HI-RES NAM Bad UKIE I don't see the models as good or bad...The UKIE is similar to other guidance to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 UKMET pulls the 850mb 0c line through with the 2m line. Even w/o a blocking high, usually the surface will lag 850s in a scouring situation unless there's a downsloping component to the wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 a lot of rain after a lot of snow is really not much fun so I just hope the models are wrong on that score, but most are headed that way or are there DRY SLOT. Here's hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well, we know that LWX has a fetish for the Euro so maybe if Euro projects large snowfall totals tonight and if 6z runs continue to show a snowier solution, maybe we will get put under a watch or warning. If not, a high advisory for 3-5 inches l is pretty much guaranteed later on in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Really?! I get that it's sniffed out stuff but could really have better verification scores than the GFS and EURO? For verification scores it's generally #1 Euro, #2 UKMET, #3 GFS, #4 GGEM. It has been that way for a while. But every event is different (and as Bob Chill points out, global verification might not be the same as local verification). UKMET and RGEM had been doing well this winter, then they were two of the worst models for predicting qpf on Monday night (UKMET too high, RGEM too low). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro looks very cold @ 850mb..0c 850 line down by RIC @ 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The euro is too dry...it doesn't warm any quicker than the others...in fact it is probably snow for most at 48, but only about 0.15" for DC at that point...flip is soon after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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