mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS has most of us below freezing Sat at 7 pm with 850's right on zero and a good bit of precip having already fallen. I'll take my chances with that verbatim, GFS drops .25"+/- at BWI as snow before the switch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 verbatim, GFS drops .25"+/- at BWI as snow before the switch 20:1 ratios ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 verbatim, GFS drops .25"+/- at BWI as snow before the switchHow much is frozen after that? Or does it just flip to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 How much is frozen after that? Or does it just flip to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 20:1 ratios ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 How much is frozen after that? Or does it just flip to rain.Thanks Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 How much is frozen after that? Or does it just flip to rain. actually, there is about 3 hrs of zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Thanks Mitch. ooops....see above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 there's a hint of a trailing system this run, but not much to it plenty of time to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 2m temps on the 00z NAM and the GFS are colder tonight... I suspect they will continue to show a stronger wedge simply because of the incredibly cold and long lasting antecedent airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 2m temps on the 00z NAM and the GFS are colder tonight... I suspect they will continue to show a stronger wedge simply because of the incredibly cold and long lasting antecedent airmass agree....until 6z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 actually, there is about 3 hrs of zr ooops....see above I would lock in 2.5" of snow and 3 hours of ZR right now as long as there is not much rain afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I would lock in 2.5" of snow and 3 hours of ZR right now as long as there is not much rain afterwards. might trend colder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GEM went all crazy with qpf and warm, but looks to give us a flip back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like UKIE has 5mm before 850s amd 2m temps both go above 0C at 72... but its kinda hard to tell and too close to call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GEM went all crazy with qpf and warm, but looks to give us a flip back to snow whoops..im posting in the wrong thread about the D10 stuff, lol.moving stuff there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GEM went all crazy with qpf and warm, but looks to give us a flip back to snow I hear the Ukie looks similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Randy may be going to see his mom next weekend. All I'll say is that there is way too much stuff going on with arctic s/w's and a lot of cold air around that it won't take much of a change here or there for us to fluke into something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 So ggem went from snowiest to warmest and rainest this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 2m temps on the 00z NAM and the GFS are colder tonight... I suspect they will continue to show a stronger wedge simply because of the incredibly cold and long lasting antecedent airmass What happens when a moisture package intercepts an antecedent airmass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 wow, 6Z NAM and GFS are MUCH colder with this event for BWI, NAM has close to .4" qpf as snow before 0Z Sunday and GFS over .3" qpf AND it doesn't get that warm at all afterward looks like both models do not amp the trough as prior runs which is what gives us this solution one can't help but think that it will continue to get colder as we appraoch BEST THREAD EVER!!!!!!.........but who's JI?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 wow, 6Z NAM and GFS are MUCH colder with this event for BWI, NAM has close to .4" qpf as snow before 0Z Sunday and GFS over .3" qpf AND it doesn't get that warm at all afterward looks like both models do not amp the trough as prior runs which is what gives us this solution one can't help but think that it will continue to get colder as we appraoch BEST THREAD EVER!!!!!!.........but who's JI?? I thought you were just joking but they did trend colder. sorry for thinking you were being silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We need to will this thing to trend colder. We got this. We have got to get Marylanders some decent snow. And DC. And stormtracker. By mid March he will finally be convinced that this was no 'debbie downer' winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This mornings gfs is basically all frozen out here. By the time it trys to rain the precipitation is all but over. This has the feeling of a 3 inch thump followed by drizzle. We do these well out here occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS and NAM look ok for here...not the sleet bomb I was hoping for though...snow to rain...guess you could say these two models are trending better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS and NAM look ok for here...not the sleet bomb I was hoping for though...snow to rain...guess you could say these two models are trending better yeah, NAM is snow to 33 and rain (for westminster) GFS is snow to 34 and rain. about 1.5" snow before the flip sounds terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 yeah, NAM is snow to 33 and rain (for westminster) GFS is snow to 34 and rain. about 1.5" snow before the flip sounds terrible I think the snow on solid block existing snow then rain will make for an awful mess after it re freezes...i don't think much gets washed away...add all that moisture into the snow pack then freeze it...could be around for a bit....emergency room visits soar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think the snow on solid block existing snow then rain will make for an awful mess after it re freezes...i don't think much gets washed away...add all that moisture into the snow pack then freeze it...could be around for a bit....emergency room visits soar! deep frozen moisture snow package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think the snow on solid block existing snow then rain will make for an awful mess after it re freezes...i don't think much gets washed away...add all that moisture into the snow pack then freeze it...could be around for a bit....emergency room visits soar! i was focusing on the detail that its going to snow, then rain at 33. in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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