mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not sure what some are looking at. It's a great run yeah, it turned out to be a great run, but it was definitely warmer than 12z and 18Z leading up to when the precip got here....it's called weenie paranoia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yup... as soon as I saw 20s at hr 39 for 2mT.. I knew we were going to get NAM'd. Now as Wes would say, lets get another model to back this run up You mean...one of the better ones, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I suspected you wouldn't like it It hurts to look at it. Instead of snow to cold rain, it's just cold rain. NWS might be trouble here if this verifies -- They have WSW already for the whole CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM is def watch worthy. If GFS follows up, lock it up. Looks good through 21Z but it's hard to tell how much of the precipitation the next 3 hours is snow versus sleet. The 850 warm layer wet bulb is only 1C so probably some. .The best thing about the run isit aimed the heavy stuff back at us rather than just to our south like the 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 yeah, it turned out to be a great run, but it was definitely warmer than 12z and 18Z leading up to when the precip got here....it's called weenie paranoia! Faster system and faster push of the PV I'm guessing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM has my high temp tomorrow at 8 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It hurts to look at it. Instead of snow to cold rain, it's just cold rain. NWS might be trouble here if this verifies -- They have WSW already for the whole CWA. Tough to forecast with models so volatile. This may be the trend that sends the whole thing back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Faster system and faster push of the PV I'm guessing? Given that it's more amped and farther north, I'm surprised how much the cold air still holds on like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 yeah, it turned out to be a great run, but it was definitely warmer than 12z and 18Z leading up to when the precip got here....it's called weenie paranoia! what...the storm starts with temps at -13C? Its the coldest run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Still think we make mid 40s and melt quite a bit Sunday. 1c 850mb temps and wsw winds is usually warm, and the arctic high doesn't start moving in until Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 At least the NAM upped the ante. I'm skeptical but it's a nice run regardless. Euro solution right now is the worst for the cities. But it's been improving so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM is crazy wet following the thump. Over 2" total on the Eastern Shore and Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like RGEM It's a step in that direction. At 12z there had been a pretty big split in the models, with the GFS / NAM showing the heaviest strip of snowfall over Kentucky and Tennessee, and the RGEM / GGEM showing it over upper Indiana and Ohio. 18z GFS took a step towards the GGEM, and 00z NAM looks like it took a bigger one. That could be good news, as the RGEM and GGEM turn out pretty well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM is crazy wet following the thump. Over 2" total on the Eastern Shore and Delaware. Not for DC and northwest, though. The heavy bands slide underneath the city again, so this run is pretty much the ideal run with no margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Given that it's more amped and farther north, I'm surprised how much the cold air still holds on like that. This is how our classic cad events have been led up to in past years, so maybe this has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res nam has the same general idea. Hot and heavy with the precip from nw va through md. 4-5" in the cities and up to 8" from okv-fdk-minsterdeathband zone. This happens before any changeover worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res looks great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 what...the storm starts with temps at -13C? Its the coldest run yet nope....if you compare 850 temps from 12Z and this run (18Z too, but I didn't look as close), the 850 temps before the storm are warmer.....trust me you want proof, I'll post it but it doesn't matter since it ended pretty darn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res nam has the same general idea. Hot and heavy with the precip from nw va through md. 4-5" in the cities and up to 8" from okv-fdk-minsterdeathband zone. This happens before any changeover worries. its time for the what can go wrong post. No more 150 mile North Jumps please is 1 of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res nam has the same general idea. Hot and heavy with the precip from nw va through md. 4-5" in the cities and up to 8" from okv-fdk-minsterdeathband zone. This happens before any changeover worries. I can't even think about a case study in which this happened...to all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 its time for the what can go wrong post. No more 150 mile North Jumps please is 1 of them Yea, no kidding. One thing that all models agree on is we keep the column through 16z give or take. We just need as much precip as possible before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Mapgirl jackpot. About time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res NAM looks colder at the surface than the NAM. Looking at the maps on Tropical Tidbits, it barely gets above freezing west of I95 in Maryland. It was the same at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ian, Matt and Randy you better look out your windows so you don't miss the dusting on your doorstep. 3 times as much as the super front last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res keeps the surface below 32 or below until precip is basically out of here. Best case scenario on all levels. If the GFS agrees....up go the WSW's until they get downgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yea, no kidding. One thing that all models agree on is we keep the column through 16z give or take. We just need as much precip as possible before then. the models have literally gone back to that crazy euro solution from 3-4 nights ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res looks great... oh wow... lock it in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 High res NAM looks colder at the surface than the NAM. Looking at the maps on Tropical Tidbits, It barely gets above freezing west of 95 in Maryland. It was the same at 18z. well, if it is the colder of the 2, nobody here is going to blame you for hugging it, and I think I speak for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 even after flip...your still going to have ice issues. Cold air wedged in nicely and probably hard to scour out? Plantain high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I can't even think about a case study in which this happened...to all rainOne of the ice storms we had in 1994 was a little similar only I think the cold was locked in at the surface a bit better in that case and the snow area was further north in pa but the setup of a frontal wave going well north with snow south of the track from cold in front seems similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.