yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yoda, I forgot to ask, do you have the 500mb map to go with that? Thx. Here you go good sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Here you go good sir QQ_GZ_UU_VV_054_05002-19-1554h5panel.gif OK, that is pretty incredulous. Should it play out like that, I would think it would be added to Ian's list of snow storms in bad patterns thanks to overwhelming cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z RGEM at 54... interesting... PT_PN_054_0000.gif Hmmm, definitely wet and looks like a good thump to that point. But can't imagine a decent low in Ohio is very good, unless I'm looking at things wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hmmm, definitely wet and looks like a good thump to that point. But can't imagine a decent low in Ohio is very good, unless I'm looking at things wrong. That does look odd. How is there so much moisture ahead of the Low? lol eta: GFS shows similar, wth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is shaping up to be a mess, regardless of type. With no sun on Saturday, most surfaces including some roads, driveways, walks, etc. will be well below freezing. We could have freezing rain with temps above freezing. I just hope we can get enough winter precip so that some can survive the mini warmup, if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That does look odd. How is there so much moisture ahead of the Low? lol Lows cruising through the Tn valley into the eastern Ohio valley often are pretty prolific with precip out in front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is shaping up to be a mess, regardless of type. With no sun on Saturday, most surfaces including some roads, driveways, walks, etc. will be well below freezing. We could have freezing rain with temps above freezing. I just hope we can get enough winter precip so that some can survive the mini warmup, if it happens. Oh, I think it's pretty well a given that we'll have a warmup in this event. At least for the immediate metro DC area. Areas farther out (i.e., to the west) might not actually warm up much. But regardless, my goal is to have that minimized if possible (as if we have a choice, haha!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Lows cruising through the Tn valley into the eastern Ohio valley often are pretty prolific with precip out in front What about the dryness directly behind it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is shaping up to be a mess, regardless of type. With no sun on Saturday, most surfaces including some roads, driveways, walks, etc. will be well below freezing. We could have freezing rain with temps above freezing. I just hope we can get enough winter precip so that some can survive the mini warmup, if it happens. Stay igilant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 What about the dryness directly behind it? My guess would be that it's dragging a cold front behind it and it's not really strong enough to wrap precip around it. It also may be in the process of transferring. Those are both just guesses on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Stay Vigilance.jpgigilant That's good Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 My guess would be that it's dragging a cold front behind it and it's not really strong enough to wrap precip around it. It also may be in the process of transferring. Those are both just guesses on my part. It's also a peculiar blip in what appears to be a favorable pattern going forward. Maybe we'll get lucky this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Another step forward with the GEFS mean. Compare it to prior runs. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=tmp2&WMO=72503&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201502191800%26HH%3D66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 LWX seems to only like 1" or less for areas SE of 95 to the bay and do not mention any ice for those areas expect the obvious NW areas. I thought all guidance was showing at least 1-2" even for those of us between 95 and the bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Is the GFS alone with the well formed low or did the Euro have it as well? Just noticing that the NAM doesn't have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 My hunch is the current forecasts will verify. The early wintry precip will be nice, but I just don't see how we can remove so much rain from guidance in the next 24 to 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 All 18z GFS ensembles have us over an inch of QPF... how much in what form though, remains to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 My hunch is the current forecasts will verify. The early wintry precip will be nice, but I just don't see how we can remove so much rain from guidance in the next 24 to 48 hours. It's still too far out to get specific but going off the temp maps on instant maps even DC doesn't make it to 35 until about 12z Sunday. By then most of the precip will be moving out. 33 degree rain can't do much to snow except compact it. Out here it's even colder. Get a thump and we can survive the rain, if it even happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Places no one cares about There's a few of us down here! Excited to see how much of the NAM prog'd ~ 1.5in QPF we can turn into snow. A lot of it would immediately get rained on, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 There's a few of us down here! Excited to see how much of the NAM prog'd ~ 1.5in QPF we can turn into snow. A lot of it would immediately get rained on, though. I was talking about WV mainly.. The parts west of WVclimo and trixieville. of course fine anyway.. Tho the all caps WSW issued made it seem exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I was talking about WV mainly.. The parts west of WVclimo and trixieville. of course fine anyway.. Tho the all caps WSW issued made it seem exciting. We'll be under a watch after the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We'll be under a watch after the 0z suite. That's the spirit! I think a few more SE shifts would be better for almost everyone, anyway. Cutting it really close, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 DT 1st guess has most of the area >4". >6" down by CHO and 10" near Roanoke FWIW. Also says significant icing. Going big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That's the spirit! I think a few more SE shifts would be better for almost everyone, anyway. Cutting it really close, though. I doubt it will be because of 5" widespread chance. 2-4" with sleet/zr on top should do it. Lwx was bearish with their disco earlier. If 0z holds the same idea we're thinking right now, a watch will likely go up with the am afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 DT 1st guess has most of the area >4". >6" down by CHO and 10" near Roanoke FWIW. Also says significant icing. Going big. I think that is a good forecast....from someone who admittedly knows little. It's just simply too cold at the surface for plain rain for a good period and the 850's are below or right at freezing for a good portion. Southerly winds will still have to traverse a couple hundred miles of snow covered landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I would like to wager $500 on the 18z RGEM please Alex Just saw this - that'd be pretty crazy if it verifies. Can't help but feel like this will trend better for us...once it starts snowing here (last Saturday squall), its hard to get out of a groove it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I was talking about WV mainly.. The parts west of WVclimo and trixieville. of course fine anyway.. Tho the all caps WSW issued made it seem exciting. DRAMATIC TYPING HERE. SOMETHING BIG IS GOING TO HAPPEN!! Next post: ....in Yellow Knife, Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 DRAMATIC TYPING HERE. SOMETHING BIG IS GOING TO HAPPEN!! Next post: ....in Yellow Knife, Canada. Just finished painting my graupel board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 21z SREFs highlights: 2m 0c line passes through DCA around 02z or so (approx hr 53) 850 0c line passes through DCA at around 00z (hr 51) 12 hr QPF from 12z SAT to 00z SUN (7am to 7pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I doubt it will be because of 5" widespread chance. 2-4" with sleet/zr on top should do it. Lwx was bearish with their disco earlier. If 0z holds the same idea we're thinking right now, a watch will likely go up with the am afd. Guess who will be in the AM AFD? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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