AlaskaETC Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ukie is best case. 3-6" for all with a sleet and ice topper. Limited rain after we lose the surface. I'll hug that for now. Well, the UKMET is now in the 3-day wheelhouse where it has been absolutely lethal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 seeing snow fall on top of snow will be really cool. I am just lumping this storm into the one from last monday. Long duration That's the spirit. Take a nap when the rain moves in. Winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It may rain hard but its not washing it away...we talk about this often It ruins the glistening freshness. Sorry for the banter. I'll minimize these types of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 4 consecutive precip events that include all snow until the very end over 7 days is pretty sweet for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Where is the Miller A 12''+ storm that we were promised going into this year? Hopefully early March will be rocking. I'm with Ji... this 3-5'' stuff isn't even worth the time tracking :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ukie is best case. 3-6" for all with a sleet and ice topper. Limited rain after we lose the surface. I'll hug that for now. Except for yesterday's 12Z run it has been locked in and basically showing the same solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Where is the Miller A 12''+ storm that we were promised going into this year? Hopefully early March will be rocking. I'm with Ji... this 3-5'' stuff isn't even worth the time tracking :/ Meh...all I care about is the competition (which ends March 1st) I have with my friend in Fairbanks. Currently his total is about 19.9", and I am sitting at 14" or so. 3-4" would put me into striking distance down the stretch. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ukie is best case. 3-6" for all with a sleet and ice topper. Limited rain after we lose the surface. I'll hug that for now. I'll go on record right now and say that this is how it plays out. I wish it was wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Parkton? On phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll go on record right now and say that this is how it plays out. I wish it was wetter. Hard to bet against the UKMET right now considering it's performance this winter. If it holds the same solution tomorrow, then my confidence would be very high. I would be interested in seeing a technical discussion on the UKMET and how it has handled things this winter. The 17km resolution is a little low compared to the new GFS, but it just blows it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Where is the Miller A 12''+ storm that we were promised going into this year? Hopefully early March will be rocking. I'm with Ji... this 3-5'' stuff isn't even worth the time tracking :/ Uh, whaaaat? I take it this is snark (or hope it is)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll go on record right now and say that this is how it plays out. I wish it was wetter. Double edged sword. Wetter on the front side means the storm needs to be more organized and stronger. For the most part anyways. That doesn't help. We're pretty much getting lucky here as it is. Having zero cold air feed means we squeeze out as much as possible with a stale and departing airmass. I hope the gfs is wrong about the rain after the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ryan mahue tweeted about how bad new gfs is scoring recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ryan mahue tweeted about how bad new gfs is scoring recently It hasn't been much better, it's pretty meh so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Loudoun closed tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Prince William closed tomorrow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hard to bet against the UKMET right now considering it's performance this winter. If it holds the same solution tomorrow, then my confidence would be very high. I would be interested in seeing a technical discussion on the UKMET and how it has handled things this winter. The 17km resolution is a little low compared to the new GFS, but it just blows it away. Maybe less (resolution) is more (accuracy in a highly change-sensitive pattern)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z RGEM at 54... interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think just about all of us feel that way except Ian You live in the wrong spot if you can't accept rain in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Check out this trend from the euro ensemble mean. The freezing line is much closer to I-95 this afternoon compared to yesterday's 12Z run for Sunday! 12Z run yesterday: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t85p&WMO=72503&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201502181200%26HH%3D84 12Z run today: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t85p&WMO=72503&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201502191200%26HH%3D72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I would like to wager $500 on the 18z RGEM please Alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 My wunderground forecast has me at 5 to 8" of snow.. OK! I will take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 My bar is set at 3 inches followed by a couple hrs of sleet and freezing rain/plain rain that all freezes solid Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED Nelson/Albemarle/Augusta/Rockingham/Highland/Pendleton/Central VA Blue Ridge Watch issued for Saturday morning into late Saturday night... potential exists for 5 or more inches of snow or a tenth of an inch of ice or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z RGEM at 54... interesting... PT_PN_054_0000.gif I can't comment on how long we can hold onto the snow other than to say record setting arctic air masses do not give up easily. I think we also have a very good opportunity to do something else unusual and that is after we do get the mild burst that 1045 high and the counterclockwise around the depatrtng low are going to tandem to get that cold air back in here quick and change DC back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z RGEM at 54... interesting... PT_PN_054_0000.gif one would think that the slp would reform off the coast looking at that map but I'm with you Yoda, RGEM is the Daily Double Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z RGEM at 54... interesting... PT_PN_054_0000.gif Yoda, I forgot to ask, do you have the 500mb map to go with that? Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nelson/Albemarle/Augusta/Rockingham/Highland/Pendleton/Central VA Blue Ridge Watch issued for Saturday morning into late Saturday night... potential exists for 5 or more inches of snow or a tenth of an inch of ice or more good for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nelson/Albemarle/Augusta/Rockingham/Highland/Pendleton/Central VA Blue Ridge Watch issued for Saturday morning into late Saturday night... potential exists for 5 or more inches of snow or a tenth of an inch of ice or more Places no one cares about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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