NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM is drier, and maybe the slightest bit warmer. But still a thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nam has been killing it down this way for like the last 5 runs. Hours 45,48 and 51 are a hammer job. Winter storm watch just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 At 54, DC is at the crossroads, 0c 850 and 0c 2mT is basically right over/near DCA, changeover to sleet/freezing rain has occurred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 2-4/3-5 before the flip. Seems like guidance is pretty tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 RNK posts WSWatch for Sig Ice and Snow for late Fri night into late Sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 2-4/3-5 before the flip. Seems like guidance is pretty tight. It just a matter of getting enough liquid in here...it is 19 with an 850 temp of -5 when the snow starts...It isn't like we are going to flip right away...we probably have 6-8 hours of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like I hold on to the 850's a little past 54. Solid hit on the NAM for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It just a matter of getting enough liquid in here...it is 19 with an 850 temp of -5 when the snow starts...It isn't like we are going to flip right away...we probably have 6-8 hours of snow... Could easily be a longer period of sleet and zr than what is being depicted. It's not a cad situation but it's going to take some work either way to get the column above freezing. I think we're looking pretty good to add to totals and not by the tenth of an inch. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 2-4/3-5 before the flip. Seems like guidance is pretty tight. Are you ready to lock that in the Bob Chill Zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Are you ready to lock that in the Bob Chill Zone? Not yet. We backed our way in just recently but I would say my over under bar is at least 2" right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 At 54, DC is at the crossroads, 0c 850 and 0c 2mT is basically right over/near DCA, changeover to sleet/freezing rain has occurred At 54 - 900 freezing is already at the M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This is looking more like a nice thump of decent snow --> sleet/ice --> rain, then turning into a brick after. Kind of what we saw several days ago. Depending on how long we have any ice after the snow, it could be a total mess by late Saturday evening if we hold onto ice for a longer time (a real possibility, it seems?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 At 54 - 900 freezing is already at the M/D line Decent period of sleet or freezing rain before changing over to all rain then, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We are above freezing for a good 18-24 hours after the flip. Probably low 40's on sunday. Pack damage is certain. Hopefully not too devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 LOL, just read LWX AFD. Based on all the models today, they read them as showing < 1" for Metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We are above freezing for a good 18-24 hours after the flip. Probably low 40's on sunday. Pack damage is certain. Hopefully not too devastating.On 18z NAM, your location and most of Central/Northern Maryland don't get above the Mid 30s. DCA reaches 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not yet. We backed our way in just recently but I would say my over under bar is at least 2" right now. Ha. No problem. I'd take 2, hope for 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 LOL, just read LWX AFD. Based on all the models today, they read them as showing < 1" for Metro areas. Euro really wasn't that impressive inside the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 from what I know about the products they like to use, they really lean on the WPC winter weather ensemble products at longer time ranges. It's that super-ensemble-thingy, and it is incredibly unenthusiastic right now about the event along the I-95 corridor, although those products often have to play catch-up to model trends. LOL, just read LWX AFD. Based on all the models today, they read them as showing < 1" for Metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Even TWC (who I don't trust) has I-95 corridor huggin the 1-3" / 3-5" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Here's the CWG article I wrote today after seeing the 12Z runs. More bullish than yesterday but still think lots could go wrong. i do provide a first guess for accumulations around DC but I wouldn't bet on the observed amounts falling within the range. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/19/snow-and-sleet-slick-roads-quite-possible-saturday-before-changeover-to-rain-by-sunday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 At 54 - 900 freezing is already at the M/D line what happens between 48 and 54 hours is kind of farcical...to go from -8 at 950 to +2...not saying it can't happen, but it isn't like we have a 992mb low over Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We are above freezing for a good 18-24 hours after the flip. Probably low 40's on sunday. Pack damage is certain. Hopefully not too devastating. stuff actually pretty dense considering.. add in some liquid and it might just glacier. certainly a battle against sun but without warm dews etc probably not the hugest hit ever. though honestly i wish it would go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 what happens between 48 and 54 hours is kind of farcical...to go from -8 at 950 to +2...not saying it can't happen, but it isn't like we have a 992mb low over Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 850's stay below freezing for the duration of the event here. Surface goes above at 15Z on Sunday after the precip has ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Here's the CWG article I wrote today after seeing the 12Z runs. More bullish than yesterday but still think lots could go wrong. i do provide a first guess for accumulations around DC but I wouldn't bet on the observed amounts falling within the range. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/19/snow-and-sleet-slick-roads-quite-possible-saturday-before-changeover-to-rain-by-sunday/ nice article....presents the different scenarios with clarity...the end analysis makes more sense too than Sterling's AFD from an hour ago that is calling for less than an inch in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 USA_GRD_900mb_054.gif I showed the southerly surface winds yesterday in my CWG article but the winds are even more impressive at 900mb. They also expalin why a preetty good slug of precipitation will probably be impacting the area on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 USA_GRD_900mb_054.gif still holding on at 51 though....i really hope it keeps trending colder... ETA: indicates why we might go to sleet 1st before rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 nice article....presents the different scenarios with clarity...the end analysis makes more sense too than Sterling's AFD from an hour ago that is calling for less than an inch in the city. They could be right but a dusting to 3 gives more wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 still holding on at 51 though....i really hope it keeps trending colder... ETA: indicates why we might go to sleet 1st before rain NAM_218_2015021918_F51_39.0000N_77.0000W.png And 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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