HighStakes Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Meh. I'd be surprised if mby got 3", but wouldn't be surprised at all if she got 5". That's a noticeable difference. An expected one. This really isn't the type of event that is elevation dependent. Sure it always helps to be north and west but if the models continue with this look you will do fine. Precip cold come in fast and dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Through 60, 15z SREFs drop just over 0.5" QPF DCA goes above 32 degrees it would seem at hour 60... lose 850s around hr 57/58 Using hr 57 as the last time (as in hour before the changeover) it snows, 12 hr QPF from 45 to 57 is 0.4"-0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 yeah for like a minute Euro is the only model that has temps rising into the mid-40s so I would expect that should it come in line with other guidance, it won't disappear as reflected in that "weenie horror movie!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Probably will get 3 inches again. This is the 3 inch winter for mby. I don't care what the maps show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 What kind of start time are we looking at? Family things to do Saturday and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If you compare 0z to 12z, the alignment of the trough/precip shield is dampening more wsw-ene vs sw-ne. For visual, last night it was aimed at 1 o'clock. 12z is more 2 o'clock. Awful close to a bigger hit in the cities. We can only be weenies and wishcast it home. Yep, and we know what happened to this week's storm 24 hours before.....suppression. There's plenty of time yet for some of that as I know you already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 reminds me of 12/8/2013 I remember this one. I was going to the hospital to visit my son and cars were all over Delaney Valley Road. It was a mess with no plows in sight. I think I ended up with 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just for giggles, NAVGEM suggests decent snow through 60 at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I remember this one. I was going to the hospital to visit my son and cars were all over Delaney Valley Road. It was a mess with no plows in sight. I think I ended up with 8 inches. You probably were in the 6-7" range bunch of reports of 7" to your NW for that one, 6" and less to your SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Through 60, 15z SREFs drop just over 0.5" QPF DCA goes above 32 degrees it would seem at hour 60... lose 850s around hr 57/58 Using hr 57 as the last time (as in hour before the changeover) it snows, 12 hr QPF from 45 to 57 is 0.4"-0.5" Using the RaleighWx maps for DC: 48 -- QPF makes it into DC, light snow starts 51 -- light snow 54 -- snow 57 -- snow/sleet/freezing rain (850 0c right over DCA) 60 -- rain in DCA (freezing rain in western suburbs) DCA ~0.45 QPF frozen before the switch to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If you compare 0z to 12z, the alignment of the trough/precip shield is dampening more wsw-ene vs sw-ne. For visual, last night it was aimed at 1 o'clock. 12z is more 2 o'clock. Awful close to a bigger hit in the cities. We can only be weenies and wishcast it home. I can read Chinese easier than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I can read Chinese easier than this I'll translate it. 0z bad. 12z good. 0z tonight might be better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Using the RaleighWx maps for DC: 48 -- QPF makes it into DC, light snow starts 51 -- light snow 54 -- snow 57 -- snow/sleet/freezing rain (850 0c right over DCA) 60 -- rain in DCA (freezing rain in western suburbs) DCA ~0.45 QPF frozen before the switch to rain I know it's the SREF out in its la-la land, but I'll go on and ask: when things switch over to rain, how warm does the SREF mean get the 2-m temperatures? Is it an all-out torch, or much more tempered like what the NAM and GFS trended toward? Also, do we get poured on or is most of the precip over already by the time of the flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I can read Chinese easier than this of course you can, you're in retail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I know it's the SREF out in its la-la land, but I'll go on and ask: when things switch over to rain, how warm does the SREF mean get the 2-m temperatures? Is it an all-out torch, or much more tempered like what the NAM and GFS trended toward? Also, do we get poured on or is most of the precip over already by the time of the flip? here you go http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=sref&area=namer&cycle=20150219%2015%20UTC¶m=2m_temp&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I know it's the SREF out in its la-la land, but I'll go on and ask: when things switch over to rain, how warm does the SREF mean get the 2-m temperatures? Is it an all-out torch, or much more tempered like what the NAM and GFS trended toward? Also, do we get poured on or is most of the precip over already by the time of the flip? Looks like it gets into the low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I know it's the SREF out in its la-la land, but I'll go on and ask: when things switch over to rain, how warm does the SREF mean get the 2-m temperatures? Is it an all-out torch, or much more tempered like what the NAM and GFS trended toward? Also, do we get poured on or is most of the precip over already by the time of the flip? It stays in the upper 30s for most of the second half of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 here you go http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=sref&area=namer&cycle=20150219%2015%20UTC¶m=2m_temp&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=model Looks like it gets into the low 40s It stays in the upper 30s for most of the second half of the event. TYVM!! Of course, I don't know what I was thinking, should have gone myself to the NCEP site at least! But appreciate the feedback. Basically looks similar to the NAM/GFS, gets us to ~40ish; some appreciable precip once it flips to rain, but doesn't look like a washout. Temps really look like they drop by Sunday evening. Again, I know this is parsing the SREF out in time, but it's what we do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 personally, I love seeing the national radar lighting up today since that NW/SE line represents the boundary of the arctic air which the SW flow is already attacking obviously, the earlier it gets going on Saturday, the better.....who knows, I wouldn't be shocked if runs starting tonight or tomorrow start showing snow breaking out in western burbs before sunrise on Saturday :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good to see all the 12z models come into a somewhat similar solution for Sat afternoon... now the questions are how long can we hold on to the cold air, and how much snow Even though the high off the coast will produce a sw flow the high is very snug to the coast and sitting over 30* salt water, not much warm up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gstern1994 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anybody have a guess for the Leesburg/Purcellville area in W. Loudoun County? I would love to have Sunday School canceled in the morning and sleep in. Any chance the snow sticks around long enough to get a cancellation before the changeover to mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anybody have a guess for the Leesburg/Purcellville area in W. Loudoun County? I would love to have Sunday School canceled in the morning and sleep in. Any chance the snow sticks around long enough to get a cancellation before the changeover to mix? Jays wintry mix on FB will have your up to date Loudoun county church cast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anybody have a guess for the Leesburg/Purcellville area in W. Loudoun County? I would love to have Sunday School canceled in the morning and sleep in. Any chance the snow sticks around long enough to get a cancellation before the changeover to mix? I live out in Purcellville.. I would say a 3 to 5" snow and it should be messy to mess up Sunday Morning services... THAT IS ALL based on models and I would not count on it. Just watch what people are posting for JYO (Lessburg) and Winchester.. We are more like Leesburg and not really close to Winchester.. but make it a bit colder that JYO and warmer than Winchester and that is all you can do.. BUT asking IMBY questions are usually frowned upon.. saying what you thing IYBY is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Jays wintry mix on FB will have your up to date Loudoun county church cast Is that you or Ji ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Jays wintry mix on FB will have your up to date Loudoun county church cast Good call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Is that you or Ji ? It's Ji. 04 was being funny. But, also, Ji probably will have a churchcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Is that you or Ji ? JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 And reliable. He's got nearly 11,000 likes Jays wintry mix on FB will have your up to date Loudoun county church cast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Re 18z NAM: At 45, very light snow entering DC At 48, still light snow... 0c 850 line in C NC, 32 degree line is in NC as well At 51, snowing nicely, heavier snow just south of DCA down towards EZF, but 925 0c line is charging north (right by EZF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z nam start time between 7-10am. west a little earlier. Not quite as wet through 21z but probably just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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