Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Maybe the last storm is clouding my judgment, but have we seen precip arrive earlier than modeled this winter? I know every storm is different, but could be a consideration here too. Euro is the latest of 12z guidance. We're at the time where we can probably safely assume it's going to snow for a period through our region. The details are knife edge as to when/where/how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Some of the GFS ensemble members are pretty tasty... is this about the time period where they are no longer useful? I think they are useful when it comes to things like the 850 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Maybe the last storm is clouding my judgment, but have we seen precip arrive earlier than modeled this winter? I know every storm is different, but could be a consideration here too. GFS/NAM get precip over us 4-6 hours earlier than euro and I imagine that would help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro is the latest of 12z guidance. We at the time where we can probably safely assume it's going to snow for a period through our region. The details are knife edge as to when/where/how much Bob please post a Euro precip total map through 66...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 the warm layer on the NAM and GFS has been below 850, roughly 900mb and lower Euro sounds the same way from what I've read here, but I haven't seen soundings yet more normal for warming to be above 850 so maybe the models will get colder as time goes on as they see that the lower level cold is tougher to move out (that's my weenie hope, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Bob please post a Euro precip total map through 66...thanks 0.6 - 0.7 for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Bob please post a Euro precip total map through 66...thanks You would be 6"+/- based on what I'm seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Stuck with this one and I'm happy I did. Like 3-5" for Baltimore and DC. As for much more upside I'd bet against it as we want it to be sheared and its not a QPF bomb. Pretty typical combo overrunning thump with a hint of a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Thanks for the info Bob and Westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I don't know why, but I'm pretty excited about this one. There are going be some nice snow depths come Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Interesting Euro run. One thing to keep in mind is surface temperatures appear to slightly warmer for 3Z Sunday compared to prior runs on wundermap fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wunderground Euro snow maps crush far western VA west of Luray with over a foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 .5 at 10:1 would be the biggest event this year for me. I'm all in. Because the Euro verification scores have been amazing this year. "Ax to head thingy" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wunderground Euro snow maps crush far western VA west of Luray with over a foot! D.C. metro is on the edge. A couple more shifts like that and it's ours! eta: we still squeeze out a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not gonna lie -- i fully enjoying seeing my backyard in the higher qpf zone for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Despite improvements, this isn't THAT great for the 95 and E crew (tho much better than torchy rain). I'll keep expectations in check for now. 1-2" of front end snow is my bar before we mix/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 D.C. metro is on the edge. A couple more shifts like that and it's ours! Edge of heavy snow or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not gonna lie -- i fully enjoying seeing my backyard in the higher qpf zone for a change. This event has Hereford zone written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This event has Hereford zone written all over it. AND its a weekend event! Which means... kiddo + snow = backyard playtime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not gonna lie -- i fully enjoying seeing my backyard in the higher qpf zone for a change. This event has Hereford zone written all over it. reminds me of 12/8/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This event has Hereford zone written all over it.That's not typically how these thumps work. Yes mappy will beat you but its usually a pretty uniform distribution and scaled n/s. If you get 3" she's getting 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 and I'm actually ok with a lesser amount of QPF for me. That tells me if the bulk falls early enough it will be more frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Edge of heavy snow or what? I'll add a screenshot in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yeah, I might need to overnight at the 'rents house to get a snow fix if things don't improve imby. AND its a weekend event! Which means... kiddo + snow = backyard playtime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 D.C. metro is on the edge. A couple more shifts like that and it's ours! If you compare 0z to 12z, the alignment of the trough/precip shield is dampening more wsw-ene vs sw-ne. For visual, last night it was aimed at 1 o'clock. 12z is more 2 o'clock. Awful close to a bigger hit in the cities. We can only be weenies and wishcast it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 reminds me of 12/8/2013 Maybe a colder version of 2/25/2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Maybe a colder version of 2/25/2007That's more like it. I definitely don't like 12/8 as an analog with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That's not typically how these thumps work. Yes mappy will beat you but its usually a pretty uniform distribution and scaled n/s. If you get 3" she's getting 5". Meh. I'd be surprised if mby got 3", but wouldn't be surprised at all if she got 5". That's a noticeable difference. An expected one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It looks a bit snowquester-like, but at this range I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I don't know why, but I'm pretty excited about this one. There are going be some nice snow depths come Saturday night. yeah for like a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.