yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 4km NAM has snow entering DC around noon or just after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 4k NAM is a little better than 12k..especially for BAltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:21 AM, mitchnick said: it did move toward the GFS, so that's a good sign vs. moving worse That's just it. Knife edge stuff but it didn't dagger us or anything. The new gfs has been better than the old gfs at short range but that still doesn't mean the 18z solution can't move north 30 miles. Other guidance like the ukie/rgem have been much more steady but that doesn't mean they can shift 30 miles either. Euro improved from last night but again, things are moving around. If the rgem looks dicey for me then the uneasy feeling starts in earnest. I never really believed the cities and close burbs were going to get hammered either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The 0Z NAM suggests most people in this sub-forum are going to see mixing at or after sunset. All of the thickness charts look warm from 0Z Sunday with more warning aloft during the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12k NAM about 3-3.5" for Downtown Baltimore, 4k about 5" roughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just checked...there's enough of a warm layer in there that I'm not sure much of it is snow out here...if it comes down hard enough probably but I suspect this will be yet another decrease in snow totals at jyo...even gfs was a pretty nasty mixed bag for jyo...sleet bomb incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:28 AM, leesburg 04 said: Just checked...there's enough of a warm layer in there that I'm not sure much of it is snow out here...if it comes down hard enough probably but I suspect this will be yet another decrease in snow totals at jyo...even gfs was a pretty nasty mixed bag for jyo...sleet bomb incoming Looking forward to several hours of "heavy snow it is so pretty" obs from Leesburg followed by "that's it?" from Ji when it cuts to drizzle after 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM trends are useless. It actually did better 36hrs out with the 1/26 storm. There is really nothing that I consider the NAM good for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:28 AM, leesburg 04 said: Just checked...there's enough of a warm layer in there that I'm not sure much of it is snow out here...if it comes down hard enough probably but I suspect this will be yet another decrease in snow totals at jyo...even gfs was a pretty nasty mixed bag for jyo...sleet bomb incoming I checked the data for KOKV and things look ok until about 0z and then the warm layers are pretty marginal, surface still below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:30 AM, PhineasC said: Looking forward to several hours of "heavy snow it is so pretty" obs from Leesburg followed by "that's it?" from Ji when it cuts to drizzle after 6 inches. Ha...probably ....I'm not smart enough to know how warm it can get at say 900 and still be snow...if it's +0.8 - +1.2 can that be overcome and be snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:34 AM, leesburg 04 said: Ha...probably ....I'm not smart enough to know how warm it can get at say 900 and still be snow...if it's +0.8 - +1.2 can that be overcome and be snow? I'm curious how deep those layers are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:28 AM, leesburg 04 said: Just checked...there's enough of a warm layer in there that I'm not sure much of it is snow out here...if it comes down hard enough probably but I suspect this will be yet another decrease in snow totals at jyo...even gfs was a pretty nasty mixed bag for jyo...sleet bomb incoming My highest total snowfall has been 3 inches so I think I'll take the sleet bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 4km NAM flips DC @ ~00z, but 2m temps lagging. Surface is the big wild card with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I would not mind hours of sleet on top of four inches of snow. Would be a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 With the storm to our west and a southerly flow, for DCA and the close-in burbs to get moderate to heavy snow for 5-6 hours, would be a very fortunate occurrence, not that it can't happen, but I would guess it is very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 4K NAM, NAM, and RGEM are all starting to look similar. I wouldn't be surprised if the cutoff settles on the fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 My bar is a deeper snowpack Sun night than I have Sat morning. Those southerlies will be roaring and won't have a problem scouring out the cold, even at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:38 AM, (So)Alexandria said: My bar is a deeper snowpack Sun night than I have Sat morning. Those southerlies will be roaring and won't have a problem scouring out the cold, even at the surface. Cold air is more dense than warm. It's always a struggle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:35 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm curious how deep those layers are 850 and 900 here with decent precip it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:36 AM, cae said: 4K NAM, NAM, and RGEM are all starting to look similar. I wouldn't be surprised if the cutoff settles on the fall line. The big difference between the nams and rgem is the amount of precip before 0z near the cities. Nams are drier than all guidance during that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 You guys do realize every other model supports the GFS's precip max location across Maryland give or take 20 miles, only the nam has it in southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 IAD 4 DCA 2.8 BWI 3.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:38 AM, (So)Alexandria said: My bar is a deeper snowpack Sun night than I have Sat morning. Those southerlies will be roaring and won't have a problem scouring out the cold, even at the surface. Winds in the boundary layer will be very light, actually, given the inversion. I'm more concerned that we flip to ZR and struggle to warm 2m temps overnight (esp given the lack of any solar help). The surface itself is an icebox right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:19 AM, usedtobe said: It and the sref are both horrid. Makes me worry about our forecast. I think I'll be lucky to get more than an inch. I know the nAM sucks but I'm not sure I trust the GFS and can remember lots of times when the band ends up north of it. Of course that was the old GFS, I still don't know about the new one.Sadly when the NAM suggests i95 fail it's usually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z RGEM at 12 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/511_100.gif 00z RGEM at 24 Vertical Motion -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/768_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:40 AM, leesburg 04 said: 850 and 900 here with decent precip it looks like No I meant in feet. How deep is the 900 to 850 layer in feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:53 AM, yoda said: 00z RGEM at 12 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/511_100.gif the freezing line in KY area is further south this run than 12Z at 24 hrs fwiw hopefully, it helps down the road with the next panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:54 AM, mitchnick said: the freezing line in KY area is further south this run than 12Z at 24 hrs fwiw hopefully, it helps down the road with the next panel I added the vertical motion map to my post as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Did I get un-NAMd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:39 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Cold air is more dense than warm. It's always a struggleThis track is mostly awful. If we weren't so cold we wouldn't even have a thread longer than 30 pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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