Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:43 AM, Bob Chill said: Simple analysis. My yard jackpottedHaha that was classic. Well said my friend, well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think Bob Chill was right in his earlier post. If this was not record breaking cold this would be a snow to rain in 2 hours or less. However I think the record cold lasts till the dry slot. I'm in a favored area and I'm going big. 6 to 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 EXPERIMENTAL 2.5 KM GRIDDED MOS IMAGES Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 High res RGEM continues to be the voice of reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 well, thru 6 hrs. on the 0Z NAM, the sim/rad precip area is further SOUTH from 18Z, so that can't be bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I agree with Bob on 18z GFS but it's probably a bit NW given seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:53 AM, Ian said: I agree with Bob on 18z GFS but it's probably a bit NW given seasonal trend. I was going to add that to my post except I didn't want to sound like a weenie in light of my deep analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:53 AM, mitchnick said: well, thru 6 hrs. on the 0Z NAM, the sim/rad precip area is further SOUTH from 18Z, so that can't be badIt looks too warm. I'm at 10.9 down here and it has -10 850s almost up to you. Idk if it'll warm up that quick. There is not a cloud out there right now. Guess I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:53 AM, Ian said: I agree with Bob on 18z GFS but it's probably a bit NW given seasonal trend. Cold professionalism at its best right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:55 AM, Bob Chill said: I was going to add that to my post except I didn't want to sound like a weenie in light of my deep analysisI hope we get 2"/hr rates at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:56 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Cold professionalism at its best right there.Too bad it will all wash away in the rain. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 0Z is south from 18Z thru 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:57 AM, Ian said: I hope we get 2"/hr rates at some point. It's convective type stuff. Somebody should get close to that. Any idea what kind of flakes are going to fall? I think that aspect is going to be wild. Not a sugar and flour storm. Rimed flakes before the switch may set off car alarms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 DC snowing noon-1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 297 for the NAM PBP... Bring it home mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:58 AM, mitchnick said: 0Z is south from 18Z thru 12 hrs My early guess is that this is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Instant weather maps struggling stuck on hour 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 1:59 AM, Bob Chill said: It's convective type stuff. Somebody should get close to that. Any idea what kind of flakes are going to fall? I think that aspect is going to be wild. Not a sugar and flour storm. Rimed flakes before the switch may set off car alarms.Haven't looked close not that I know what to look for anyway. Some dinner plates seem likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:01 AM, yoda said: DC snowing noon-1pm hair slower than 18Z, but it is south by a bit from 18Z, but we'll see if it matters when it counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just try to beat Mitch or Yoda on model updates...go ahead...I dare you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Through 21hrs, slightly colder column but a bit dryer and/or slower w/ precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 You'll love it in central MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Still suckin it compared to GFS thru 20 very slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM still hates us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:05 AM, StudentOfClimatology said: Through 21hrs, slightly colder column but a bit dryer and/or slower w/ precip. On 2/21/2015 at 2:06 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: You'll love it in central MD haven't seen it yet, just looking at radar, but it does look a hair drier and colder so I figured it w0ould be better for DCA up to BWI, just don't know by home much yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We have several good models to go, but I think the possibility exists that northern sections may struggle to lose 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 At 24hrs, DC is mixing but more QPF thru 00z than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAM still have the favored spots getting the snow. I feel like I am in Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 2:07 AM, mitchnick said: haven't seen it yet, just looking at radar, but it does look a hair drier and colder so I figured it w0ould be better for DCA up to BWI, just don't know by home much yet N and C MD good, DC/N VA east of BR bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm ok with it....in that there's no drastic change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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