foggy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Another storm that will really test the local forecaster's skills. I'll lock up the GFS and hope for a dry slot after 7PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Might be time for a obs/nowcasting thread and leave this one for model stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 11:41 PM, Ian said: Might be time for a obs/nowcasting thread and leave this one for model stuff As long as the bandwidth doesn't double between threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Obs here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45808-jis-wtf-storm-observed-thread/#entry3424440 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 11:35 PM, Bob Chill said: Look on the bright side. Less amp early on means more chance of getting deathbanded. You really think so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 11:44 PM, BTRWx said: As long as the bandwidth doesn't double between threads. HAHAHA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 11:46 PM, BTRWx said: You really think so? Nah. Just a weenie technique. We'll know more with 0z. This one is tricky. The band will exist somewhere nearby...or over rockville. Gfs likes me because I speak nicely about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 11:19 PM, leesburg 04 said: 1-3" was a big blow to the server You should change your name to Leesburg 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think this is going to be uniform between downtown and the close in suburbs so i do not see 1" for Alexandria and 6" for Rockville but rather a uniform 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 11:50 PM, Bob Chill said: Nah. Just a weenie technique. We'll know more with 0z. This one is tricky. The band will exist somewhere nearby...or over rockville. Gfs likes me because I speak nicely about it. Enthusiastic sarcasm is promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 A lot of convective precip with this. Definitely not a straightforward system. 12/8/13 was similar to this. We got the deathband on that one. I think the same thing will happen with this one, somebody will get 10" and somebody will get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 6:26 PM, WestminsterDeathband said: fear and loathing in Centreville What's going on in Centreville? Missed the reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 11:59 PM, Amped said: A lot of convective precip with this. Definitely not a straightforward system. 12/8/13 was similar to this. We got the deathband on that one. I think the same thing will happen with this one, somebody will get 10" and somebody will get screwed. Boston Strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Awful GFS run up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I know this is almost pointless now, but since we're in between runs, ensembles continue to trend colder Sunday morning, except for 12Z earlier today. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=tmp2&WMO=72503&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201502201800%26HH%3D42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The 4km NAM actually keeps DC below freezing at the surface until 04z/05z..upstairs looks like crap though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:05 AM, mapgirl said: Awful GFS run up this way meanwhile, the NAM was spectacular. 12" for Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:24 AM, Sparky said: meanwhile, the NAM was spectacular. 12" for Westminster. I know, I'm hugging it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:24 AM, Sparky said: meanwhile, the NAM was spectacular. 12" for Westminster. I hope all of Maryland gets CRUSHED with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:25 AM, mapgirl said: I know, I'm hugging it it deserves a group hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:12 AM, BTRWx said: I know this is almost pointless now, but since we're in between runs, ensembles continue to trend colder Sunday morning, except for 12Z earlier today. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=tmp2&WMO=72503&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201502201800%26HH%3D42 Not sure how useful they are at this point...but they are unanimously warmer at 850 than the op at 0z tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 11:56 PM, BTRWx said: Enthusiastic sarcasm is promising I look at this storm as a gift. It's a terrible setup. If the antecedent airmass wasn't record breaking and just departing we would get 3 seconds of snow/sleet at best and a whole lotta cold rain. South surface flow and ripping south midlevel flow almost never gives us measurable snow. Anyone who can measure 2" or more should consider this an unusual victory. Our typical front end thumps have cad and damming. This one is scouring. And somehow it's finding a way to snow. My over under is 2-3 inches. Less would disappoint and more is victory. In between is what I expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:05 AM, mapgirl said: Awful GFS run up this way It'll probably be a merger of the two in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:29 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: It'll probably be a merger of the two in the end. A merger of the bad NAM run from earlier and the bad GFS run from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:00 AM, needbiggerboat said: What's going on in Centreville? Missed the reference. nothing...posts got deleted. It's all good...hope you get thumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:33 AM, mattskiva said: A merger of the bad NAM run from earlier and the bad GFS run from now?This post makes as much sense to me as your claim that there would be 45 minute wait lines at Canaan last weekend. Our max wait was about 45 seconds BTW.My comment was suggesting that I think the main precip band will probably end up between where the NAM and GFS have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 On 2/21/2015 at 12:05 AM, mapgirl said: Awful GFS run up this way Do you really think that is how it is going to play out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Not often do you see model sounding weather porn. Check out those rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 42 pages. New thread before the 0z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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