NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:10 PM, Ian said: lol That gradient is intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:07 PM, Ji said: this one has potential. Seems like their is some high pressure to our north We'll keep that disco in the other thread. The entire period from thurs-mon has potential. Ops are probably the last thing to look at though. Not worth the stress. We were virtually all rain for tomorrow just a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:10 PM, Ian said: lol stop laughing man. Some people put alot of time,effort and money into this computer simulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just before this map is when most of us flip... like an hour before or so. This is the 12 hr QPF map from 15z (10 AM) to 03z (10 PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:12 PM, Ji said: stop laughing man. Some people put alot of time,effort and money into this computer simulationTrue plus the Canadians nailed the last Storm. ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:12 PM, Ji said: stop laughing man. Some people put alot of time,effort and money into this computer simulation Ji... Did you hijack this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:14 PM, Ian said: True plus the Canadians nailed the last Storm. ;( Rgem was too dry last storm. It's underdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Any possible shift to the East a little more with this event giving us a bigger chance of being in the boom scenario rather than bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:10 PM, Ian said: lol Certainly trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 There is no weenie big enough for that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Based on the 12z runs, I'm looking at about 0.6" qpf falling as snow (out of about 1" total). So now I'm trying to figure out ratios. 9:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:18 PM, cae said: Based on the 12z runs, I'm looking at about 0.6" qpf falling as snow (out of about 1" total). So now I'm trying to figure out ratios. 9:1? To start it should definitely be 10:1 maybe then lowering to 9:1 later, so about 5-6" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:20 PM, ravensrule said: To start it should definitely be 10:1 maybe then lowering to 9:1 later, so about 5-6" for you. Thanks. I'll go with 4-7" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ah yes, the Canadian HERDERP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:17 PM, ravensrule said: There is no weenie big enough for that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 6:48 PM, Ian said: I feel like the models were pretty locked in by ~24-36 out last go. main change was qpf differences and the north end shrinking south but the max area stayed pretty similar.. know many (myself included) were initially thinking north drift into end and that didn't happen. agree, but the question is why did it shrink south? colder/drier air pressing in, so that was my point/weenie perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:25 PM, feloniousq said: ah yes, the Canadian HERDERP name is too close to a feared medical condition for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:28 PM, mitchnick said: name is too close to a feared medical condition for me Herpes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm going icefishing at Deep Creek Lake this weekend... leaving DC very early tomorrow to get to Garrett County before the snow starts flying. Anyone think we can stay all snow out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:30 PM, peribonca said: I'm going icefishing at Deep Creek Lake this weekend... leaving DC very early tomorrow to get to Garrett County before the snow starts flying. Anyone think we can stay all snow out there? you don't have to go that far.....friend called me today while crossing the Bay Bridge and it's frozen too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:17 PM, ravensrule said: There is no weenie big enough for that map. <<slowly raises hand>> Antecedent airmass means business. I'm at 12.1F today. Very well could be the 4th time in the last week I did not make it to the teens for highs. Cold, cold, cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:34 PM, mitchnick said: you don't have to go that far.....friend called me today while crossing the Bay Bridge and it's frozen too Just saw on the news this morning that the bay is 85% frozen. Thats crazy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:45 PM, clskinsfan said: Just saw on the news this morning that the bay is 85% frozen. Thats crazy to me. Flew over it today. Not sure I saw 80% but there's a lot of frozen. It's been a cold winter, period. One of the coldest I've experienced here. I don't even care what the stats say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just had to go for a little bit of a walk. It is...cold. Really cold. Seems conducive to snow. #weathertalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:34 PM, das said: <<slowly raises hand>> Antecedent airmass means business. I'm at 12.1F today. Very well could be the 4th time in the last week I did not make it to the teens for highs. Cold, cold, cold. Well das FWIW our point and click now has only snow wording for tomorrow and tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 7:50 PM, 87storms said: Flew over it today. Not sure I saw 80% but there's a lot of frozen. It's been a cold winter, period. One of the coldest I've experienced here. I don't even care what the stats say. I remember last winter as being way colder. This winter felt more normal temp wise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 8:00 PM, PhineasC said: I remember last winter as being way colder. This winter felt more normal temp wise to me. agreed... Last winter was brutally cold from Jan to March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z nam has onset around 10-11am for the cities. Heaviest axis back in ky seems further south than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 8:03 PM, Bob Chill said: 18z nam has onset around 10-11am for the cities. Heaviest axis back in ky seems further south than 12z. Seems as though it skips the snow and goes straight to FRZ rain > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 8:04 PM, FairfaxVAsnowlover said: Seems as though it skips the snow and goes straight to FRZ rain > 850's collapse with evap cooling. that's assuming they even touch 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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