psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:45 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: For heavy early precip, for 850 temps, for a cessation of the north trend...take your pick. Somebody did say the sref runs use old data, so who knows the srefs are really the last of the 6z runs not the first of the 12. Plus they have been skewed badly lately by several members that seem amp happy. Frankly they have been useless.Eta: I am by no means saying I feel comfortable we won't get screwed like usual but the srefs are a bad reason to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The SREFs would be a bad tool to use for a system like this IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:52 PM, psuhoffman said: the srefs are really the last of the 6z runs not the first of the 12. Plus they have been skewed badly lately by several members that seem amp happy. Frankly they have been useless. Eta: I am by no means saying I feel comfortable we won't get screwed like usual but the srefs are a bad reason to worry. are those the same srefs that were giving me 9 inches last tuesday with their cute plumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 TWC is bullish to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:52 PM, psuhoffman said: the srefs are really the last of the 6z runs not the first of the 12. Plus they have been skewed badly lately by several members that seem amp happy. Frankly they have been useless. Eta: I am by no means saying I feel comfortable we won't get screwed like usual but the srefs are a bad reason to worry. Yes, thinking the same. They just happen to be the first run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:57 PM, osfan24 said: TWC is bullish to say the least. Has it been named? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Quite an ice storm brewing for parts of the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:00 PM, Superstorm said: Has it been named? Sent from my iPhone Pandora Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:57 PM, osfan24 said: TWC is bullish to say the least. 8-12 here... yeah right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 1:56 PM, Highzenberg said: The SREFs would be a bad tool to use for a system like this IMO. Yes. My point. Last **** up storm they were useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Moisture stream on the 12z NAM is a little farther south. Which would be good to get the precip in here quicker, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:03 PM, Fozz said: 8-12 here... yeah right Let's hope they are right for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We may have our stabilizing run coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think the srefs best use to is keep up disco during a lull. As far as adding value, only the 1%'ers that know how to decipher them can add value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:06 PM, Highzenberg said: Moisture stream on the 12z NAM is a little farther south. Which would be good to get the precip in here quicker, we'll see. Not looking good... ETA: I said this at first because I thought that we were gonna get a bunch of Frz rain based on the onset of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:06 PM, FairfaxVAsnowlover said: Let's hope they are right for once! They do that to get viewers I'm sure. Then when they are totally wrong people just switch channels and forget. They are the CNN of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Temps are already borderline by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:10 PM, MN Transplant said: Temps are already borderline by noon. ?? You look to be well below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Column looks fine through 32hrs at least with 0.1-0.25" already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:12 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: ?? You look to be well below freezing 850 was sketchy before the precip moved in. Evap cooling took care of it for the initial hit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:13 PM, MN Transplant said: 850 was sketchy before the precip moved in. Evap cooling took care of it for the initial hit of snow. i see what your saying. This looked really really strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's a pretty good thump. Column is probably just below freezing at DCA at 34hrs and about to warm up, but 0.25" already fallen for DC and >0.5" for the Manchester-Mt. Parkton corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 At least we stopped the getting worse trend, for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:16 PM, WxUSAF said: It's a pretty good thump. Column is probably just below freezing at DCA at 34hrs and about to warm up, but 0.25" already fallen for DC and >0.5" for the Manchester-Mt. Parkton corridor. How does QPF look for BWI before the flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM is a huge hit here.0.75"+ through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:16 PM, WxUSAF said: It's a pretty good thump. Column is probably just below freezing at DCA at 34hrs and about to warm up, but 0.25" already fallen for DC and >0.5" for the Manchester-Mt. Parkton corridor. Yeah, 34 (22z) is changover at DCA. Then some decent ZR. >0.10 at both 35 and 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 by 00z...60 qpf frozen has fallen at JYO and temps will below freezing(upper 20s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like about 4-5" not bad. Looks like I'll be listening to Pandora while plowing Pandora! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 On 2/20/2015 at 2:18 PM, Scraff said: How does QPF look for BWI before the flip? Eyeballing off the map, it's probably 0.4-0.5"? Then some sleet and FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like Mappy will finally beat the rest of us at snow accums as the weather gods intended! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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