What do past weather analogues & present weather models predict for the future weather: Part II - Rest of February into Spring

[wxhstn74]

What do past weather analogues & present weather models predict for the future weather:
Part II - Rest of February into Spring

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/…/winter-outlook-and-r…

[michsnowfreak]

Good writeup. Its hard to believe March is nearing. It truly feels and looks like the tundra outside lol.

[Roger Smith]

I may not be the first to say this, but one would have to suspect this spring and summer could turn fiercely hot and dry in the Midwest (GL OV MA and NE also) and plains states as the enormous warmth of the west coast ridge translates east. I don't anticipate much if any retrogression involved in this pattern, and both 1934 and 1936 had extremely cold Febs in the Great Lakes, Ohio valley and Midwest. Hopefully better ag practices will prevent a dust bowl scenario but I believe temperatures may almost match those exceptional summers where the anomalous warmth began in May, would expect it to remain cool to near normal until late April in the Midwest with April perhaps seeing the stronger warming edge closer into IA-MO-wIL at times.

[andyhb]

I may not be the first to say this, but one would have to suspect this spring and summer could turn fiercely hot and dry in the Midwest (GL OV MA and NE also) and plains states as the enormous warmth of the west coast ridge translates east. I don't anticipate much if any retrogression involved in this pattern, and both 1934 and 1936 had extremely cold Febs in the Great Lakes, Ohio valley and Midwest. Hopefully better ag practices will prevent a dust bowl scenario but I believe temperatures may almost match those exceptional summers where the anomalous warmth began in May, would expect it to remain cool to near normal until late April in the Midwest with April perhaps seeing the stronger warming edge closer into IA-MO-wIL at times.

 

What besides anecdotal evidence do you have to support this? There are other years with very cold Februarys in the region that played out nothing like 1934 and 1936.

[Hoosier]

I may not be the first to say this, but one would have to suspect this spring and summer could turn fiercely hot and dry in the Midwest (GL OV MA and NE also) and plains states as the enormous warmth of the west coast ridge translates east. I don't anticipate much if any retrogression involved in this pattern, and both 1934 and 1936 had extremely cold Febs in the Great Lakes, Ohio valley and Midwest. Hopefully better ag practices will prevent a dust bowl scenario but I believe temperatures may almost match those exceptional summers where the anomalous warmth began in May, would expect it to remain cool to near normal until late April in the Midwest with April perhaps seeing the stronger warming edge closer into IA-MO-wIL at times.

 

 

CPC outlook is calling for drought development in the upper Midwest, and of course there's the ongoing drought farther west.  I guess the question is whether we can get out of this regime and get the ridging to persist in this part of the country as we get into the warmer months.  It almost seems impossible at this point.  Certainly the dry/warm anomalies have been building out west.

[andyhb]

CPC outlook is calling for drought development in the upper Midwest, and of course there's the ongoing drought farther west.  I guess the question is whether we can get out of this regime and get the ridging to persist in this part of the country as we get into the warmer months.  It almost seems impossible at this point.  Certainly the dry/warm anomalies have been building out west.

 

If anything I would expect a retrogression with the western ridge rather than a progression, which is what he seems to expect. That has been the cycle as of late as forcing shifts between different areas in the Pacific.

[Hoosier]

I'll say this...I think Roger was the first one to call for something like 1930s type heat back in 2012, and by God, it happened.  I'll be impressed if he hits.

[Chicago WX]

It's like Christmas morning for Hoosier.

 

Also, roger this...

[andyhb]

I'll say this...I think Roger was the first one to call for something like 1930s type heat back in 2012, and by God, it happened.  I'll be impressed if he hits.

 

Once the death ridge started setting up in March, it was clear that ugliness was going to follow. That winter paved the way for the rest of that year.

[Hoosier]

It's like Christmas morning for Hoosier.

 

Also, roger this...

 

I admit, I kinda miss tracking the death ridge in our area.  I still have all those wild temp maps saved from 2012.

[Hoosier]

Here's March through August temperature anomalies in 1934 and 1936. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[andyhb]

Kind of a bizarre look for April 1936 since that was quite an active month severe weather wise especially at the beginning.

[Chicago Storm]

I admit, I kinda miss tracking the death ridge in our area.  I still have all those wild temp maps saved from 2012.

[A-L-E-K]

cold/wet summer, take it to the bank

[buckeye]

cold/wet summer, take it to the bank

 

Alek--------> <-------RogerS.

 

bookmarked

 

rooting for Roger's forecast....  Damn, at some point this misery has to end.  It seems like winter has been going for 2 years straight.

[stormtrackertf]

cold/wet summer, take it to the bank

Please no.

I for one welcome a 2012 repeat.

[Hoosier]

Anyone know what the ENSO state was in 1934 and 1936?  Curious how it compares to now. 

 

Some models have Nino strengthening into the summer months, which would not be unprecedented.

[mjwise]

Please no.

I for one welcome a 2012 repeat.

 

Good god no. I don't need to spend another summer bathing in my own sweat watching my lawn get crunchy. 2011 can eat it too. What was so bad about, say, 2013 or 2008? Pass on the death ridges.

[Gilbertfly]

cold/wet summer, take it to the bank

Climo and below has held strong for nearly 24 months....

Maybe we can pull out some pseudo ROF's

Gonna be hard to top the quantity of "top notch"ers we had last summer...

I'm up for the challenge

[Chicago WX]

Anyone know what the ENSO state was in 1934 and 1936?  Curious how it compares to now. 

 

Some models have Nino strengthening into the summer months, which would not be unprecedented.

 

1934 Mod Nina winter to cool neutral summer

 

1936 warm neutral winter to to a neutral summer

 

You're getting your hopes up a little too high right now.

[Hoosier]

1934 Mod Nina winter to cool neutral summer

 

1936 warm neutral winter to to a neutral summer

 

You're getting your hopes up a little too high right now.

 

 

Thanks.

 

I think Nino in summer tilts the odds toward cooler weather but I could be mistaken.

[Chicago WX]

Thanks.

 

I think Nino in summer tilts the odds toward cooler weather but I could be mistaken.

 

Yep. Nino certainly favors cooler than normal, but there are exceptions (see JJA 2002). Nina's are what really bring the heat.

[dmc76]

I agree with Alek.

[mjwise]

Thanks.

 

I think Nino in summer tilts the odds toward cooler weather but I could be mistaken.

 

You know, 2009 had a Nino develop over the summer.

 

(Leaving before I get lynched, even though I think the ENSO link is pretty weak over the summer.)

[Hoosier]

Yep. Nino certainly favors cooler than normal, but there are exceptions (see JJA 2002). Nina's are what really bring the heat.

 

 

Even you might get depressed with this set of maps.  Somebody make it stop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chicago WX]

Even you might get depressed with this set of maps.  Somebody make it stop.

 

 

Looks dreamy. 

 

   

[DAFF]

CPC outlook is calling for drought development in the upper Midwest, and of course there's the ongoing drought farther west.  I guess the question is whether we can get out of this regime and get the ridging to persist in this part of the country as we get into the warmer months.  It almost seems impossible at this point.  Certainly the dry/warm anomalies have been building out west.

I could see this as a precursor to hot dry summer. With all the crazy weather patterns as of late I don't think any of us could totally rule out Rogers idea. It makes great sense to me given the pattern developing to the west. As winter develops into spring cold looks to be king from there it would be hard to deny the cold continuing.  But, if there was to be a shift to a dry blow torch summer I have a feeling the record patterns of the past few seasons would not end....

[michsnowfreak]

I agree with Alek.

Weve had two summers in a row with autumn-like evenings during the dog days. Take out the 5-day heatwave in July 2013 and there has virtually been no heat.

 

I will be amazed if we can pull off a 3rd straight comfortable summer where I can remember more days where the older folks were wearing sweatshirts on a summer night than I can kids playing in the pool lol.

 

But then again, this cold pattern we have been locked into for a few years now just doesnt want to leave....so who knows?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Alek--------> <-------RogerS.

 

bookmarked

 

rooting for Roger's forecast....  Damn, at some point this misery has to end.  It seems like winter has been going for 2 years straight.

If you want real misery, look no further than the summer of 1936. Hideous heat in the Midwest, Lakes and northeast, including Ontario. Toronto hit 104F three days straight. Many died. More people die of heat than cold.