Quincy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Will we torch or get socked into more of an icy/snowy scenario for Sunday? Here's how the contest will run... Predict the high temperature for the following stations on Sunday, February 22nd: BDR Stratford/Bridgeport, Sikorsky Airport BDL Windsor Locks, Bradley Int'l Airport PVD Providence, TF Green Airport ORH Worcester, Regional Airport BOS Boston, Logan Airport Tie-breaker prediction: Highest maximum temperature at any official southern New England ASOS site on Sunday. Please include station name. Scoring is simple. Each degree error results in one error point. In the case of a tie, the user who is closest to the highest maximum temperature in southern New England is the winner. If there is a second tie, the user who has the closest to zero overall bias score (will factor positive and negative error points for an overall "contest bias" score) will win. If there's a third tie, then there can be multiple winners. The deadline for submitting a forecast is 12:00 p.m. (noon) on Thursday, February 19th. This will give the board time to consider the contest, forecast models and to assess some of the Thursday 12z data. You can edit a post at any point up until that time, as forecasts will not be tallied until the deadline. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Why not give it until 00z Fri Nite or at least 18z Fri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I like it, I like it a lot. Some very preliminary numbers(Will go back in and edit these prior to the deadline, but just so I don't forget to do something). BDR Stratford/Bridgeport, Sikorsky Airport 42 BDL Windsor Locks, Bradley Int'l Airport 37 PVD Providence, TF Green Airport 38 ORH Worcester, Regional Airport 33 BOS Boston, Logan Airport 42 Max: Nantucket, MA ACK 47 Edited 819 AM 2/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 These are fun... BDR - 36º BDL - 35º PVD - 37º ORH - 32º BOS - 33ºHighest: ACK - 43º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Why not give it until 00z Fri Nite or at least 18z Fri?To make it a little bit more challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BDR - 44F BDL - 40F--- unless there is a scouring wind.....give a little time to warm up.....might stay colder PVD - 46F ORH - 42F BOS - 46FHighest: ACK - 52F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BDR - 46F BDL - 41F PVD - 43F ORH - 37F BOS - 44F Highest: ACK - 50F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshPhillipsWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BDR Stratford/Bridgeport, Sikorsky Airport: 43 BDL Windsor Locks, Bradley Int'l Airport: 37 PVD Providence, TF Green Airport: 39 ORH Worcester, Regional Airport: 36 BOS Boston, Logan Airport: 38 Highest: Nantucket (ACK): 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BDR-36 BDL-34 PVD-37 ORH-30 BOS-34 ACK-51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BDR: 36 BDL: 31 PVD: 34 ORH:28 BOS:35 ACK:44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BDR _ 37 BDL _ 31 PVD _ 36 ORH _ 29 BOS _ 33 ACK _ 51 This warming will slowly disappear from future model runs and the system will have considerable snow potential (5-8") away from Long Island Sound. It's going to take a stronger vortmax than this one to conquer the extreme cold air mass, although it will briefly catch ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BDR 54 BDL 52 PVD 53 ORH 47 BOS 54 ACK 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Kev is colder than Roger Smith lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Will we torch or get socked into more of an icy/snowy scenario for Sunday? Here's how the contest will run... Predict the high temperature for the following stations on Sunday, February 22nd: BDR Stratford/Bridgeport, Sikorsky Airport 35 BDL Windsor Locks, Bradley Int'l Airport 32 PVD Providence, TF Green Airport33 ORH Worcester, Regional Airport29 BOS Boston, Logan Airport 34 Tie-breaker prediction: Highest maximum temperature at any official southern New England ASOS site on Sunday. Please include station name. ACK 48 Scoring is simple. Each degree error results in one error point. In the case of a tie, the user who is closest to the highest maximum temperature in southern New England is the winner. If there is a second tie, the user who has the closest to zero overall bias score (will factor positive and negative error points for an overall "contest bias" score) will win. If there's a third tie, then there can be multiple winners. The deadline for submitting a forecast is 12:00 p.m. (noon) on Thursday, February 19th. This will give the board time to consider the contest, forecast models and to assess some of the Thursday 12z data. You can edit a post at any point up until that time, as forecasts will not be tallied until the deadline. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BDR 38 BDL 32 PVD 37 ORH 29 BOS 33-34 range ACK 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bronxboy10 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BDR Stratford/Bridgeport, Sikorsky Airport 50 BDL Windsor Locks, Bradley Int'l Airport 50 PVD Providence, TF Green Airport 50 ORH Worcester, Regional Airport 45 BOS Boston, Logan Airport 50 ACK 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 BDR Stratford/Bridgeport, Sikorsky Airport 38BDL Windsor Locks, Bradley Int'l Airport 32PVD Providence, TF Green Airport 35ORH Worcester, Regional Airport 30BOS Boston, Logan Airport 33ACK 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Last call for forecasts! You can post or edit until noon today. BDR: 37 BDL: 35 PVD: 37 ORH: 33 BOS: 34 ACK: 43 I'll post the averages and ranges of all entries this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 BDR: 38° BDL: 36° PVD: 41° ORH: 36° BOS: 38° Highest: ACK: 47° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 BDR. 37 BDL. 33 PVD. 36 ORH. 31 BOS. 35. ACK. 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Kev is colder than Roger Smith lol And now I'm wondering if i went cold enough with the trends probably still not done coming down. I'll stick with what i had..but probably should bring them down a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowciopath Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 BDR: 37 BDL: 34 PVD: 37 ORH: 33 BOS: 35 ACK: 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 The contest is closed. Here were the model forecasts at the close of the contest:44 39 46 40 43 MEX 47 ACK35 33 36 33 34 13km GFS 44 HYA37 36 41 35 35 12km NAM 42 UUU38 45 41 41 43 ECMWF 45 Multiple stations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just wondering, did you notice that Brian5671 had entered by editing your entry sheet (post 14)? You said there was one entry missing from the s/s but I see his and also the very warm one from "weenie radar" in post 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just wondering, did you notice that Brian5671 had entered by editing your entry sheet (post 14)? You said there was one entry missing from the s/s but I see his and also the very warm one from "weenie radar" in post 12.Thanks for picking up on that, it slipped through. Will add after work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I only noticed because when I read it, I thought he was quoting your entry and was going to comment on it, but there was no comment. So it dawned on me, sometimes things do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Jesus, this closed yesterday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Man against model at that point. I would not presume to start a contest but somebody should start one for the eventual snow total at BOS and if or when they break the record. Maybe last measurable too. That would be fun, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Updated results with new model data from 00z/06z Saturday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 i might actually do good in this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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