End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015

[pazzo83]

Except that the temps only rise to the upper 40's at best on that map. not gonna happen

 

On SW winds in March?   Uh no, that's 60F at least.

[chietanen]

Unlike some others I'm a weather fan, not just a cold and snow fan. I'm sure several posters will disappear without a trace 7 days from now and won't reappear again until November

[snowman19]

I look forward to a spring and summer full of you telling us all about what the weather will be like in 2-3 weeks.

Thats not what I did, seems like you have reading comprehension problems

[IrishRob17]

Thats not what I did, seems like you have reading comprehension problems

Then I must have the same problems...

[EasternLI]

So Cisco at the climate prediction center is totally off his rocker with that discussion? And typhoon tip posted the epo projections, they have it going positive within the next 7 days

 

Look, I don't want to get into it again,I just want to add this. Tip also said this in that post, which is all I was trying to say all along.

 

 

 

Caveat emptor: Despite this stronger observed re-emergence of that changing EPO sign, it is still possible the mode change is GEFs-rushed.  Also, in that throughout last season and this one alike (I suspect both influenced by similar flow biases) +EPOs have persistently damped if not failed to verify. Which is why I started off with "...a little more convincingly."  I'd like to overcome that secondary sort of persistence signal before getting to warm giddy.  

[Kaner587]

On SW winds in March? Uh no, that's 60F at least.

Maps shows upper 40's. I went through 850's and 2m temps on SV. Likely bc it's too cloudy with precip likely as progged. You'd need sun in addition to SW winds and 850's like that to get to near 60 can't do it without sun. With the front not so far to the west clouds and precip with definitely be an issue. Now if this cut through the Midwest then take 60's easily. Not what that map shows though

[snowman19]

Then I must have the same problems...

You will be another one disappearing when the cold is gone

[PB GFI]

Someone's in denial as to our geography.  Spring's coming in March, get over it.  The snow will melt.  The plants will bloom.  The sundresses will be out.  Happens e'ry year.

Let me get this straight . Are you under the impression that

Anyone here thinks spring is not coming ?

This is steeped in stupidity.

Now if you have any desire to engage in meteorology and not silliness than I am all ears.

You said " we are losing the EPO " . Not sure if you just made that up or you decided to stick your left hand over a 500mb Map or maybe you just need to swing your mouse over.

We are talking about March and we are analyzing the following month of weather.

Is spring coming sure. So is xmas , but that too will be after we get through a below normal March.

I chose to an opine on where March is going in the " March thread " and not state something so obvious as .oh spring is coming . It's a weather board where we discuss patterns and storms .

[IrishRob17]

You will be another one disappearing when the cold is gone

LMAO, yea, ok kid, if you say so.

[snowman19]

Let me get this straight . Are you under the impression that

Anyone here thinks spring is not coming ?

This is steeped in stupidity.

Now if you have any desire to engage in meteorology and not silliness than I am all ears.

You said " we are losing the EPO " . Not sure if you just made that up or you decided to stick your left hand over a 500mb Map or maybe you just need to swing your mouse over.

We are talking about March and we are analyzing the following month of weather.

Is spring coming sure. So is xmas , but that too will be after we get through a below normal March.

I chose to an opine on where March is going in the " March thread " and not state something so obvious as .oh spring is coming . It's a weather board where we discuss patterns and storms .

Lol I just got accused of supposedly telling us what the weather will be 3 months in advance, not by you, I know. But you just said with certainty that we are going to have a below normal March a week away from when it starts...

[Mophstymeo]

Cisco is actually one of the best long range forecasters NOAA has and that was his write up. He seems extremely confident just by how he worded that discussion

Did you read the follow-up discussion in the NE forum where Cisco was quoted? It's very interesting.

[Mophstymeo]

Lol I just got accused of supposedly telling us what the weather will be 3 months in advance, not by you, I know. But you just said with certainty that we are going to have a below normal March a week away from when it starts...

Look, it's March. You'll both probably be right. We'll have one day in the low 30s followed two days later by one in the low 60s.

[snowman19]

Even if we concede that the 1st week or 2 of March is going to be above normal, aren't we then fighting against the clock and climo, even if we went back into a +pna and -epo which is what someone argued. It will be mid March or very close too it at that point. What can we hope to actually come out with as far as cold and snow at that point? Also, sun angle does play an important role once into March

[PB GFI]

Pos ENSO and similar SST analogs suggest March is a below normal month temp wise.

We lose the PNA after day 8 and probably for a week as the EPO retrogrades.

After that the -EPO + PNA pattern is back. Now with increasing normals it will not feel as cold once we are into the 2nd half of March But there is support for a BN month

But if one is looking for a long torch or thinks winters over is just going to have to wait.

After that your normals are into the 50s and then it's over.

We just went through one of the coldest Feb s in a 150 years of record keeping , saying we will moderate is not profound.

[pazzo83]

Let me get this straight . Are you under the impression that

Anyone here thinks spring is not coming ?

This is steeped in stupidity.

Now if you have any desire to engage in meteorology and not silliness than I am all ears.

You said " we are losing the EPO " . Not sure if you just made that up or you decided to stick your left hand over a 500mb Map or maybe you just need to swing your mouse over.

We are talking about March and we are analyzing the following month of weather.

Is spring coming sure. So is xmas , but that too will be after we get through a below normal March.

I chose to an opine on where March is going in the " March thread " and not state something so obvious as .oh spring is coming . It's a weather board where we discuss patterns and storms .

 

You claimed March would be below normal end to end without providing an ounce of meteorological reasoning, except to say MAYBE the models are wrong about the EPO or that it's only temporary?  Writing's on the wall.

[pazzo83]

Pos ENSO and similar SST analogs suggest March is a below normal month temp wise.

We lose the PNA after day 8 and probably for a week as the EPO retrogrades.

After that the -EPO + PNA pattern is back. Now with increasing normals it will not feel as cold once we are into the 2nd half of March But there is support for a BN month

But if one is looking for a long torch or thinks winters over is just going to have to wait.

After that your normals are into the 50s and then it's over.

We just went through one of the coldest Feb s in a 150 years of record keeping , saying we will moderate is not profound.

 

Can you source this?

[MJO812]

Someone's in denial as to our geography. Spring's coming in March, get over it. The snow will melt. The plants will bloom. The sundresses will be out. Happens e'ry year.

Smh

I guess you forgot what happened last march.

[PB GFI]

Can you source this?

I could . But I'm not going to. Do a little research.

[USCG RS]

Lol I just got accused of supposedly telling us what the weather will be 3 months in advance, not by you, I know. But you just said with certainty that we are going to have a below normal March a week away from when it starts...

Hes looking at global teleconnections and furthermore looking at the cause of these global teleconnections. To be honest, I've always looked at the EPO and PNA as inverse relationships of each other. Now that the PNA is going negative, I see the EPO flipping positive as projected. And while I see a PNA recharging to positive as well, I'm not sure how strongly positive it will go. The ENSO looks to be only a slight deviation above the +.5C. So while the temperatures are warm, I don't know if I see such a strong rebound in the PNA or the opposite in the EPO.

[ag3]

Thursday is still a threat.

Euro ensembles were very close on the 12z run.

[USCG RS]

Can you source this?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

[pazzo83]

I could . But I'm not going to. Do a little research.

 

Hmm, well on here we usually back up what we post with evidence/sources instead of making blanket claims.  Here's my research:

 

[USCG RS]

Hmm, well on here we usually back up what we post with evidence/sources instead of making blanket claims. Here's my research:

4panel.png

That's just indicies brother, and that doesn't cover the Southern Oscillation. I posted the link above showing warmer than normal SST s in the Eastern Pacific.

[pazzo83]

That's just indicies brother, and that doesn't cover the Southern Oscillation. I posted the link above showing warmer than normal SST s in the Eastern Pacific.

This, from Feb 5th?

 

 

 

Synopsis: There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño within the late Northern Hemisphere winter and early spring, with ENSO-neutral slightly favored thereafter.

[PB GFI]

You claimed March would be below normal end to end without providing an ounce of meteorological reasoning, except to say MAYBE the models are wrong about the EPO or that it's only temporary?  Writing's on the wall.

End to end ? Please tell me you didn't miss where I said week 1 would be above normal .

followed by a turn to colder week 2 and 3 .

Please don't misquote me.

March should finish below N . After that we will all have our spring .

[chietanen]

Thats not what I did, seems like you have reading comprehension problems

 

I don't really care to get into an argument with you, I was just pointing out that your discussions about the teleconnections is getting tiring. You've been going on ad nauseam about it since you joined the board. There was a lot of talk about how we were almost guaranteed to have a -AO this winter due to the snow advance index and that failed miserably, so nothing is guaranteed. In any event, no one is doubting that it's going to warm up eventually. In fact, I think most of us will welcome it. But if you're someone who likes winter storms, which almost all of us do, you just have to live in the moment, especially in late February. We are on borrowed time. I feel like we are beyond the point of worrying about what the NAO or AO or EPO are going to be doing in 3 weeks. What good is blocking in late March or early April when the average high is 50? 

 

As far as your comment about people "disappearing" from the board once winter is over, who really cares? Does that make someone less of a weather enthusiast? We live in the Northeast and winter is far and away the most interesting time of the year. Our severe weather season is fairly tame, and we generally don't get tropical weather. When we get either of those, this place gets busy again. But there's only so much you can discuss when it's sunny and 70 for a week straight.

[snowman19]

Hes looking at global teleconnections and furthermore looking at the cause of these global teleconnections. To be honest, I've always looked at the EPO and PNA as inverse relationships of each other. Now that the PNA is going negative, I see the EPO flipping positive as projected. And while I see a PNA recharging to positive as well, I'm not sure how strongly positive it will go. The ENSO looks to be only a slight deviation above the +.5C. So while the temperatures are warm, I don't know if I see such a strong rebound in the PNA or the opposite in the EPO.

enso is basically neutral right now, we don't have a well established Nino to force the tropical convection which would be associated with it to sustain a + pna indefinitely. Totally believable that we will go into an rna pattern next week

[PB GFI]

Hmm, well on here we usually back up what we post with evidence/sources instead of making blanket claims. Here's my research:

4panel.png

Yawn. You are so bad at this. I crushed this entire winter.

I've hit patterns and storms for the most part all winter. You wouldn't know that because you were stuck in PR for the last 3 months.

Maybe someone will fill you in

What you are seeing are pressures in the EP region. The NEG does not disappear it retrogrades like I said.

Which goes exactly to what I said why week 1 in march is warm. So thank you for proving my point from the post above

Because of the SST profile it will come back . You just had an SOI Burst so by day 10 you will probably see a ridge on the EC In the means

That's another reason why I said week 1 in march is above normal.

What else can I help you with.

[USCG RS]

This, from Feb 5th?

Here's another link for you to watch

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

[snowman19]

Yawn. You are so bad at this. I crushed this entire winter.

I've hit patterns and storms for the most part all winter. You wouldn't know that because you were stuck in PR for the last 3 months.

Maybe someone will fill you in

What you are seeing are pressures in the EP region. The NEG does not disappear it retrogrades like I said.

Which goes exactly to what I said why week 1 in march is warm. So thank you for proving my point from the post above

Because of the SST profile it will come back . You just had an SOI Burst so by day 10 you will probably see a ridge on the EC In the means

That's another reason why I said week 1 in march is above normal.

What else can I help you with.

Do the ssts drive the pattern or does the pattern drive the ssts? Huge debate there. But as a sweeping generality +pdo does support more +pna than not, but not always...