End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015

[pazzo83]

This is HR 300 on todays 6z GEFS.... Keep in mind, I'm not calling for continued deep winter. Just saying I don't buy above normal...At least not yet.

 

6zGEFS.png

 

Did you actually post a 300hr GEFS panel to prove a point?  Really?

[easternsnowman]

who says the ao and nao will stay positive, of course they will turn negative just in tome to give us a cold rainy spring!

[Mophstymeo]

Did you actually post a 300hr GEFS panel to prove a point? Really?

You do realize the irony of this comment, right? If not, here's your comment in post #209:

"I guess you guys are right. We'll just trust intuition instead of highly complex computer models."

[White Gorilla]

Because long range forecasting has worked out so well this winter. That said, spring will eventually come, unless, of course, that Kentucky sheriff was right and this is all Queen Elsa's fault.

Ah, just let it go.

[Mophstymeo]

Ah, just let it go.

Oy. I get that from my kids.

[pazzo83]

You do realize the irony of this comment, right? If not, here's your comment in post #209:

"I guess you guys are right. We'll just trust intuition instead of highly complex computer models."

 

Yea, at a certain range the modeling can be subject to significant error, but the transition we are talking about in here is being seen well inside of 300hrs.  Also, the GFS long range has a well-known cold bias.

[EasternLI]

Did you actually post a 300hr GEFS panel to prove a point?  Really?

 

Well, I haven't seen much counterpoint, other than spring is coming. It's discussing model output, which I thought was ok on a weather board. If that's too far ahead, here's day 7 and day 9

 

Day 7

 

 

Day 9

 

[snowman19]

Because long range forecasting has worked out so well this winter. That said, spring will eventually come, unless, of course, that Kentucky sheriff was right and this is all Queen Elsa's fault.

Cisco is actually one of the best long range forecasters NOAA has and that was his write up. He seems extremely confident just by how he worded that discussion

[pazzo83]

Ah, just let it go.

 

[CIK62]

How come no talk about the QBO index which misbehaved, having become more negative for 8 straight months now.    Six months in the same direction is the general cutoff.    What happens if it dramatically becomes less negative to say -10 or -15 from -26 and does it very quickly?

[USCG RS]

How come no talk about the QBO index which misbehaved, having become more negative for 8 straight months now. Six months in the same direction is the general cutoff. What happens if it dramatically becomes less negative to say -10 or -15 from -26 and does it very quickly?

QBO actually has a mean of around 24-30 months, from what I've been instructed. Granted we didn't spend much time on this index as it is more climatology than forecasting, however, the QBO tends to change slowly over time as the it takes a significant amount of time for the dissipation of the atmospheric waves to work through the stratosphere. My point here is that I don't see a very quick flip in the QBO.

[IrishRob17]

Unlike some others I'm a weather fan, not just a cold and snow fan. I'm sure several posters will disappear without a trace 7 days from now and won't reappear again until November

[MJO812]

I really dont get why people leave right after winter

[SnoSki14]

I really dont get why people leave right after winter

Because we enter the doldrums. Unless there's an anamolous event the only thing worth discussing is the temperatures and the next winter from weenies. The mid March through May period is one of the most boring weather periods around here 9 out of 10 times.

[MJO812]

Because we enter the doldrums. Unless there's an anamolous event the only thing worth discussing is the temperatures and the next winter from weenies. The mid March through May period is one of the most boring weather periods around here 9 out of 10 times.

I dont track anything in the summer except for hurricanes if they pose a threat for the coast. Other than that, im in the sports section.

[SnoSki14]

I dont track anything in the summer except for hurricanes if they pose a threat for the coast. Other than that, im in the sports section.

I'm in the hurricane forums but there's a lot more going on than the next few months. Hurricanes, heat waves, thunderstorms, massive flooding potential.

Even if it's not here hurricane and tornado season are my favorites after winter.

[rsteff]

I dont track anything in the summer except for hurricanes if they pose a threat for the coast. Other than that, im in the sports section.

Same for me

[Thunder7842]

I dont track anything in the summer except for hurricanes if they pose a threat for the coast. Other than that, im in the sports section.

At least in the summer we get t-storms which are interesting and fun, plus hurricane season is interesting. Some people find heat waves interesting too. Summer is an interesting time for weather. Spring is without a doubt the most boring time of year. Pretty much nothing interesting happens weather wise in April and May.

 

 

 

So anyway we don't have anything to track right now? The weekend storm is off the weather maps? Hopefully the models will bring it back, I know they sometimes disappear at this range.

[IsentropicLift]

Cut off low season is my favorite time of the year, naturally

[pazzo83]

Cut off low season is my favorite time of the year, naturally

 

I will give it to you, there is something about a cool, rainy spring day with the bright spring green juxtaposed to the grey sky.  Same as the awesome contrast between deep white snow and the blue sky.

 

When I was in VT a couple weekends ago, the sky looked almost tropical in how blue it was, especially when contrasted with the green/white mountain we were skiing on.

[snow1]

Aren't there any storms we can talk about?

[PB GFI]

A few things on the coming spring. That will be put on hold through March . Period. The next 10 days are COLD The idea that we are losing the EPO couldn't be further from the truth as it's way to a - 4 SD below normal. It retrogrades and after day 10 but will come flying back the week after.

Yes the PNA breaks down but it's temporary. The warm water In the pacific will re fire that Pos PNA and it returns in week 2 in march

The analogs suggest that March will finish below normal.

Now if the argument is that the coldest part of winter is past us then sure , but since this FEB will go down as one of the top 3 or 4 coldest Feb in over 150 years if record keeping I don't think that's very profound .

The winter is not over nor is march a torch.

Get over it.

The next 10 days are cold.

We pullback in the 1st week of march.

Then we re fire for a few weeks .

If you want to play in the heat I suggest you wait until April or head to Florida.

[Juliancolton]

Few things compare in ecstasy to an isolated 97F reading, a few "see text" days, and a sheared, elongated 70 kt hurricane at 38N, 64W.

 

[+SNfreak21]

ECMWF at 192hrs, this could be the warmest day we have seen in a long time with mass snowmelt and runoff, the light at the end of the tunnel, 10C at 850mb with SW winds, we could reach 65F+

[Metasequoia]

I would not be surprised if the models pick up next week's storm again within the next couple of days.

Once winter has passed, this region gets pretty boring. Severe weather is pretty tame and hurricanes recurve too much at our latitude.

[Kaner587]

ECMWF at 192hrs, this could be the warmest day we have seen in a long time with mass snowmelt and runoff, the light at the end of the tunnel, 10C at 850mb with SW winds, we could reach 65F+

Except that the temps only rise to the upper 40's at best on that map. not gonna happen

[MJO812]

I would not be surprised if the models pick up next week's storm again within the next couple of days.

Once winter has passed, this region gets pretty boring. Severe weather is pretty tame and hurricanes recurve too much at our latitude.

Agree. At least I will get alot of sleep.

[snowman19]

A few things on the coming spring. That will be put on hold through March . Period. The next 10 days are COLD The idea that we are losing the EPO couldn't be further from the truth as it's way to a - 4 SD below normal. It retrogrades and after day 10 but will come flying back the week after.

Yes the PNA breaks down but it's temporary. The warm water In the pacific will re fire that Pos PNA and it returns in week 2 in march

The analogs suggest that March will finish below normal.

Now if the argument is that the coldest part of winter is past us then sure , but since this FEB will go down as one of the top 3 or 4 coldest Feb in over 150 years if record keeping I don't think that's very profound .

The winter is not over nor is march a torch.

Get over it.

The next 10 days are cold.

We pullback in the 1st week of march.

Then we re fire for a few weeks .

If you want to play in the heat I suggest you wait until April or head to Florida.

So Cisco at the climate prediction center is totally off his rocker with that discussion? And typhoon tip posted the epo projections, they have it going positive within the next 7 days

[Mophstymeo]

Aren't there any storms we can talk about?

Doesn't seem to be.

[pazzo83]

A few things on the coming spring. That will be put on hold through March . Period. The next 10 days are COLD The idea that we are losing the EPO couldn't be further from the truth as it's way to a - 4 SD below normal. It retrogrades and after day 10 but will come flying back the week after.

Yes the PNA breaks down but it's temporary. The warm water In the pacific will re fire that Pos PNA and it returns in week 2 in march

The analogs suggest that March will finish below normal.

Now if the argument is that the coldest part of winter is past us then sure , but since this FEB will go down as one of the top 3 or 4 coldest Feb in over 150 years if record keeping I don't think that's very profound .

The winter is not over nor is march a torch.

Get over it.

The next 10 days are cold.

We pullback in the 1st week of march.

Then we re fire for a few weeks .

If you want to play in the heat I suggest you wait until April or head to Florida.

 

Someone's in denial as to our geography.  Spring's coming in March, get over it.  The snow will melt.  The plants will bloom.  The sundresses will be out.  Happens e'ry year.