doncat Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 It actually can hit the 80's in March. I forget the year, but it wasn't that long ago, we hit the low 80's a few days after st. patrick's day That was 1998...way too warm too early...exceeded 80 degrees here from the 27th thru the 31st with the highest being 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Correct me if I am wrong but I seem recall Jan 1990 having a 70 degree day or 2, anyone have those stats? Edit: just checked Wunderground for KNYC, 72 on Jan 6, 2007, some record upper 60s during late Jan in 1990 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 This looks like a pretty complex setup next week. Basically we have a fairly strong clipper diving south at the same time a low pressure trying to form in the Gulf. With all this energy, you might expect the two systems to phase somewhere along the East Coast. The models aren't showing that though. Instead you get a low that skirts out to sea and perhaps an inverted trough that impacts northeast Maine and Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The EPO flip keeps getting pushed back on ens. Once it gets inside day 10, we'll start talking warmupThe EPO/WPO will be the ONLY teleconnection left after next Sunday, PNA goes negative, NAO and AO stay strongly positive, and when the PNA goes negative, we will see southeast ridging pop up. Once loose the EPO, the fat lady will be singing for this winter. There are indications that it and the WPO will be rising from their solidly negative values towards neutral after March 1st, but we shall see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The EPO/WPO will be the ONLY teleconnection left after next Sunday, PNA goes negative, NAO and AO stay strongly positive, and when the PNA goes negative, we will see southeast ridging pop up. Once loose the EPO, the fat lady will be singing for this winter. There are indications that it and the WPO will be rising from their solidly negative values towards neutral after March 1st, but we shall see.... Fantastic, hopefully we get one last big one......after which I hope to see record breaking warmth this Spring followed by a seasonally warm to hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I will welcome the warm weather but want one more storm to push us over the 40 mark. However I think that next weekend is our last shot given the forecasted indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The EPO/WPO will be the ONLY teleconnection left after next Sunday, PNA goes negative, NAO and AO stay strongly positive, and when the PNA goes negative, we will see southeast ridging pop up. Once loose the EPO, the fat lady will be singing for this winter. There are indications that it and the WPO will be rising from their solidly negative values towards neutral after March 1st, but we shall see.... The AO + NAO have been positive all winter, I think you can stop mentioning that in every one of your posts now. If the EPO stays neg, while the PNA goes neg. we get a SE ridge with the meat grinder H5 that we saw earlier in the season. Again, I see discussion in here about 60's and 70's in march but I don't see that on guidance right now. To me that's akin to wishcasting a blizzard, but that's just me. That vortex by greenland needs to go IMO, it's keeping the cold flow into SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The AO + NAO have been positive all winter, I think you can stop mentioning that in every one of your posts now. If the EPO stays neg, while the PNA goes neg. we get a SE ridge with the meat grinder H5 that we saw earlier in the season. Again, I see discussion in here about 60's and 70's in march but I don't see that on guidance right now. To me that's akin to wishcasting a blizzard, but that's just me. That vortex by greenland needs to go IMO, it's keeping the cold flow into SE Canada. Using teleconnections for long range forecasts is overrated. This winter should have made that clear. Remember when all the mets in late fall were claiming this winter would feature a strong negative AO/NAO? Thinking about teleconnections is only useful in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well, the NWS brought back the chance for *something* Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow showers . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well, the NWS brought back the chance for *something* Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow showers . . . All of the models show that. Maybe we can eek out a dusting to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Central Park stuck at 33 still. Temps should start dropping around 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The AO + NAO have been positive all winter, I think you can stop mentioning that in every one of your posts now. If the EPO stays neg, while the PNA goes neg. we get a SE ridge with the meat grinder H5 that we saw earlier in the season. Again, I see discussion in here about 60's and 70's in march but I don't see that on guidance right now. To me that's akin to wishcasting a blizzard, but that's just me. That vortex by greenland needs to go IMO, it's keeping the cold flow into SE Canada.Please show me where I said we are going into the 60's and 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 For the record, can nyc get away with a -pna, and SE ridge, and both the nao and ao being positive? Yes, gradient pattern, IF it sets up right and IF and only IF the epo is negative. Anyone south of nyc is dead in the water with that setup even with the negative epo. If the epo goes positive in that setup, there is no escaping warmth, no way to sugar coat it, it would be an above normal flow pattern for sure. In that setup, I'd be worried about even a neutral epo, it has to stay solidly negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Please show me where I said we are going into the 60's and 70's That wasn't directed at anyone in particular, and I didn't state it as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 For the record, can nyc get away with a -pna, and SE ridge, and both the nao and ao being positive? Yes, gradient pattern, IF it sets up right and IF and only IF the epo is negative. Anyone south of nyc is dead in the water with that setup even with the negative epo. If the epo goes positive in that setup, there is no escaping warmth, no way to sugar coat it, it would be an above normal flow pattern for sure. In that setup, I'd be worried about even a neutral epo, it has to stay solidly negative Please re-read what I said earlier The AO + NAO have been positive all winter, I think you can stop mentioning that in every one of your posts now. If the EPO stays neg, while the PNA goes neg. we get a SE ridge with the meat grinder H5 that we saw earlier in the season. Again, I see discussion in here about 60's and 70's in march but I don't see that on guidance right now. To me that's akin to wishcasting a blizzard, but that's just me. That vortex by greenland needs to go IMO, it's keeping the cold flow into SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Hate to break it to everyone, but it will eventually reach the 60s and 70s, most likely in March. The inexorable march of time and the seasons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Hate to break it to everyone, but it will eventually reach the 60s and 70s, most likely in March. The inexorable march of time and the seasons...That's where the sun angle and climo argument people like to mention comes into play.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Hate to break it to everyone, but it will eventually reach the 60s and 70s, most likely in March. The inexorable march of time and the seasons... I don't disagree, just not seeing it attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Typhoon Tip just posted this in the NE forum, take it for what you will.... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 943 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 VALID 12Z WED FEB 25 2015 - 12Z SUN MAR 01 2015 ...PATTERN CHANGE... THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH A NEW TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST AND A RECENTERING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE UPSHOT OF THESE CHANGES IN THE WEST IS A CRASHING OF THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH OF LATE AND A REINTRODUCTION OF LOWLAND RAINS AND HIGH-COUNTRY SNOWS. IN THE EAST, ONE LAST ARCTIC HIGH SETTLING FARTHER EAST IMPLIES THAT THE CHANCES FOR SNOW OR ICE FROM ANY SOUTHERN-STREAM WAVE ARE DIMINISHING, WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION FAR MORE LIKELY AS THE LAST OF THE FRIGID HIGHS RETREATS OFFSHORE DAY 7 AND WARM ADVECTION FUELS ANOTHER ROUND OF ICE AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I don't disagree, just not seeing it attm What are you not seeing? The PNA goes into the tank and we are losing the EPO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 A lot of obsessing about teleconnections. Next week is March and as Pazzo said, it's going to warm up eventually. I personally think we keep enough cold air around for at least a couple of storm threats over the next week to ten days. In the end, spring may be delayed but it will not be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 What are you not seeing? The PNA goes into the tank and we are losing the EPO...Pazzo, check the discussion above, the climate prediction center is saying it's all she wrote after next Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Pazzo, check the discussion above, the climate prediction center is saying it's all she wrote after next Sunday... Does that mean you will no longer be gracing us with your presence in a week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 What are you not seeing? The PNA goes into the tank and we are losing the EPO... Not totally sold on the EPO yet, although it is starting to look more likely. Once it gets inside of day 10 I'll buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 How unfortunate the Gfs shows a classic separation of the two streams mid week. This is a nice case where blocking would've helped immensely by forcing the northern disturbance to dig much further south and link up with that southern stream disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Does that mean you will no longer be gracing us with your presence in a week?Unlike some others I'm a weather fan, not just a cold and snow fan. I'm sure several posters will disappear without a trace 7 days from now and won't reappear again until November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Pazzo, check the discussion above, the climate prediction center is saying it's all she wrote after next Sunday... Because long range forecasting has worked out so well this winter. That said, spring will eventually come, unless, of course, that Kentucky sheriff was right and this is all Queen Elsa's fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I think the first half of March will still average below normal but it will certainly be a lot milder than we've seen so it'll feel like a huge warm up even though it may still be 5-10 degrees below normal. The +EPO has been getting delayed by a few days, but it looks like a classic case of delayed not denied and also you have to account for a lag once it switches to positive. We have to wait until post 3/20 for more above normal temperatures or right on cue with springtime. You can add or subtract a few days based on how long the -EPO holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I guess you guys are right. We'll just trust intuition instead of highly complex computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Unlike some others I'm a weather fan, not just a cold and snow fan. I'm sure several posters will disappear without a trace 7 days from now and won't reappear again until November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.