bluewave Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I will not post the Euro day 11 -15 Euro ensembles as the one I get are from a pay site , I will only tell you , they could not look better . -EPO -AO -NAO +PNA The heights are connected across the pole with the trough STUCK underneath in the east . Whatever comes out of the N branch during the 20th - 31st time frame will cut off and as JB say will use the warm air from the South to deepen . We are not done . This may be one of the strongest MJO transits from 7-8 that we have seen for March in a while. So that matches the composites well with heights finally building across to Greenland. I will give the weeklies points for at least getting the -EPO/+PNA and Eastern trough idea correct back in February .Old man winter continues to hit the steroids this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 This may be one of the strongest MJO transits from 7-8 that we have seen in March in a while. So that matches the composites well with heights finally building across to Greenland. I will give the weeklies points for at least getting the -EPO/+PNA and Eastern trough idea correct back in February .Old man winter continues to hit the steroids this year. ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif ^ Look at that amplitude . Yikes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 ^ Look at that amplitude . Yikes . I know. We have to research some amplitude records since that looks like a contender at least for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I know. We have to research some amplitude records since that looks like a contender at least for March. Amazing how every warm up has been muted that was seen in the LR . We probably see 5 days of Normal and just reverse again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Everyone `s baking and we are shivering . Check on the Hemisphere YTD surface temps since Jan 1 . Talk about running the table . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 ^ Look at that amplitude . Yikes . Geezus, GEFS is off the chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I know. We have to research some amplitude records since that looks like a contender at least for March.I don't have access to those records hut I will tell you in classes that type of amplitude was definately pushing it on the high side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The Gfs just looks crazy but not in a crazy impossible kind of way. Can you imagine if the low ends up further south and colder air bleeds in with that much moisture. The trend thus far has been further south so it's plausible especially with those massive highs surrounding us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The Gfs just looks crazy but not in a crazy impossible kind of way. Can you imagine if the low ends up further south and colder air bleeds in with that much moisture. The trend thus far has been further south so it's plausible especially with those massive highs surrounding us. Current GFS still shows close to a foot NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Geezus, GEFS is off the chart ALL_emean_phase_full.gif What does this mean? A blizzard or 3" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Amazing how every warm up has been muted that was seen in the LR . We probably see 5 days of Normal and just reverse again . I don't have access to those records hut I will tell you in classes that type of amplitude was definately pushing it on the high side. It looks like this would be the strongest March MJO amplitude in phase 7 before going into 8 since 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 The AO also just made an extreme move today. It just reached a very anomalous +5 reading that may be the highest since 1993. I have to check the numbers to confirm this. But a very steep drop is forecast as the models build the ridging across toward Greenland. 1993 1 14 5.2451993 1 15 5.100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 How about today's AO it looks even greater than the 1993 stats. Amazing to go from a record breaking -AO to possibly a record breaking +AO in such a short amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 How about today's AO it looks even greater than the 1993 stats. Amazing to go from a record breaking -AO to possibly a record breaking +AO in such a short amount of time. Yeah, this is an extreme swing for March only two years after going below -5 in 2013. Today was one of the most positive AO daily readings on record since 1950. This looks very close to the record pending the CPC final numbers. 1989 1 14 5.582 1993 1 14 5.245 http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii 2013 3 19 -5.193 2013 3 20 -5.688 2013 3 21 -5.399 2013 3 22 -5.240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Since Jan 26th...just two days here with a daily mean temp slightly above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Park didn't hit 50 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Winter Weather Advisrory West and South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 One of the greatest AO plunges into negative territory that you are going to see from such a high level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 One of the greatest AO plunges into negative territory that you are going to see from such a high level. ao.sprd2.gif +5 SD AO spikes followed by and 8 SD move to the downside , with a plus + 5 SD MJO phase 7 MJO pulse and multiple 20 +point SOI drops . WARNING WARNING ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 The GFS ensemble forecast for the AO is showing a drop rivaling or perhaps even surpassing that which took place in March 1956 (6.136 standard deviations between 3/2/1956 and 3/26/1956). Below is the ensemble forecast for the AO and also a comparison of 1956 with 2015 (the broken line would be the path 2015 would take if it were identical to what occurred in 1956 to better illustrate the magnitude of the drop being shown on the ensembles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 51 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 +5 SD AO spikes followed by and 8 SD move to the downside , with a plus + 5 SD MJO phase 7 MJO pulse and multiple 20 +point SOI drops . WARNING WARNING ........ We can also add the PDO to the extreme list with February marking the third consecutive record breaking high month. http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest 2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 0.67 1.08 1.49 1.72 2.51 2015** 2.45 2.30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 What's the monthly departure after the first half of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 March precip so far (thru 3/14) NYC: 3.49 EWR: 345 LGA: 3.53 JFK: 3.90 PHL: 4.14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Thru the first two weeks (3/14) NYC: -2.8 EWR: -4.0 LGA: -2.9 JFK: -3.6 PHL: -4.3 NYC last 20 March's temp dep (snowfall) and subsequent April March / April 1995: +2.4 (trace) / -1.1 (trace) 1996: -3.5 (13.2) / -0.8 (0.7) 1997: -0.6 (1.7) / -1.3 (Trace) 1998: +2.9 (5.0) / +1.0 (0.0) 1999: +0.1 (4.5) / +0.5 (0.0) 2000: +4.7 (0.4) / -2.0 (1.2) 2001: -2.8 (3.8 ) / +0.9 (0.0) 2002: +1.7 (Trace) / +3.1 (Trace) 2003: +0.6 (3.5) / -3.2 (4.1) 2004: +1.1 (4.8 ) / +0.6 (0.0) 2005: -3.1 (6.9) / +2.1 (0.0) 2006: +0.6 (1.3) / +2.7 (0.1) 2007: -0.2 (6.01) / -2.7 (Trace) 2008: +0.2 (Trace) / +2.0 (0.0) 2009: +0.0 (8.3) / +1.5 (Trace) 2010: +5.7 (Trace) / +4.9 (Trace) 2011: -0.1 (1.0) / +1.3 (Trace) 2012: +8.5 (0.0) / +1.8 (0.0) 2013: -2.3 (7.3) / 0.0 (0,0) 2014: -4.8 (0.1) / -0.7 (Trace) Had in the wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Temp departures this month outside urban stations several degrees greater with good radiating nights...-5.2 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Some flurries in the air west orange nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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