Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Severe weather season should be more fun here than Long Beach at least. Although North Texas has more tornadic activity than down here (although it's far from uncommon, the F5 Jarrell tornado in 1997 was about 30 miles north of downtown Austin), we have lots of hail and straight-line wind events. We're also called "flash-flood alley". Assuming your location is *east* of the proverbial dry line...I don't think I've ever heard of a tornado in New Mexico. *Prays *no one* treats that as a literal, explicit declaratory statement* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I guess you dont look at the pattern Stop, the argument is over, and we arent extrapolating the 18z gfs a week further out in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Mr. Koppen caused a lot of problems with that extremely ill conceived characterization...it's "true" only in the sense that a climatologist decided to call it that...the phrase "sub-tropical" has no established boundaries or norms beyond what Mr. Koppen decided to pull out of his hat. The subtropical vs continental argument is really a snowpack argument. In Europe, the -3C (26.6F) isotherm was observed as being the southern extent of the snowpack. Our coldest month averages around freezing, and under normal conditions a "snowpack" isn't a thing here. America generally uses the 0C isotherm, which places Long Island on the dividing line between continental and subtropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Assuming your location is *east* of the proverbial dry line...I don't think I've ever heard of a tornado in New Mexico. *Prays *no one* treats that as a literal, explicit declaratory statement* I'd say it's east, but the temp contrasts and jet dynamics that drive tornado outbreaks are usually north of here. Most definitions of Tornado Alley stop around Waco. We average about the same precip as DFW, but Austin is known for bad flash flooding since we have tons of small creeks and hills that drain runoff into them, and a high population density around those creeks. The Colorado River is a long way from a major flood given the dry last few years, unless it becomes Noah's Ark all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The subtropical vs continental argument is really a snowpack argument. In Europe, the -3C (26.6F) isotherm was observed as being the southern extent of the snowpack. Our coldest month averages around freezing, and under normal conditions a "snowpack" isn't a thing here. America generally uses the 0C isotherm, which places Long Island on the dividing line between continental and subtropical. Subtropical should mean where palm trees can either survive or grow naturally, and that's nowhere near Long Island. Maybe Cape May, NJ. I think there are some palms that can survive up to Bethany Beach, DE or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The subtropical vs continental argument is really a snowpack argument. In Europe, the -3C (26.6F) isotherm was observed as being the southern extent of the snowpack. Our coldest month averages around freezing, and under normal conditions a "snowpack" isn't a thing here. America generally uses the 0C isotherm, which places Long Island on the dividing line between continental and subtropical. Upton has a 65 year mean of 29.41 F for January so the coldest month does average below freezing (see link) http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlyMeanTemps.htm As for what constitutes a "snowpack"...I mean I don't know...again it is subjective...places like Aroostook County Maine (think Caribou) have continuous snow cover from about mid November to mid April...about 150 days...Long Island fairly uncommon to have prolonged periods when the ground is well covered with snow...but its not like it melts overnight...here are some recent figures where I'm at for number of days the ground was well covered with snow / Port Jeff: 2002-03: 72 days 2003-04: 54 days 2004-05: 66 days 2008-09: 50 days 2009-10: 55 days 2010-11: 71 days 2012-13: 48 days 2013-14: 71 days That's not a negligible total... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Subtropical should mean where palm trees can either survive or grow naturally, and that's nowhere near Long Island. Maybe Cape May, NJ. I think there are some palms that can survive up to Bethany Beach, DE or so. Long Island (outside of the pine barrens) can support a couple of species of palm. Nothing massive like you'd see in places like California, but some of the shorter understory kinds you'd find in the swamps in the south can survive our area's climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Long Island (outside of the pine barrens) can support a couple of species of palm. Nothing massive like you'd see in places like California, but some of the shorter understory kinds you'd find in the swamps in the south can survive our area's climate. The rainforest itself would likely thrive at ridiculous heat islands such as Kennedy or LaGuardia Airports...whose distorted climate records have very much skewed people's perceptions of reality, including those of a good percentage of those who forecast the weather on tv and over the radio...leading to decades of inaccuracy & misrepresentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Upton has a 65 year mean of 29.41 F for January so the coldest month does average below freezing (see link) http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlyMeanTemps.htm As for what constitutes a "snowpack"...I mean I don't know...again it is subjective...places like Aroostook County Maine (think Caribou) have continuous snow cover from about mid November to mid April...about 150 days...Long Island fairly uncommon to have prolonged periods when the ground is well covered with snow...but its not like it melts overnight...here are some recent figures where I'm at for number of days the ground was well covered with snow / Port Jeff: 2002-03: 72 days 2003-04: 54 days 2004-05: 66 days 2008-09: 50 days 2009-10: 55 days 2010-11: 71 days 2012-13: 48 days 2013-14: 71 days That's not a negligible total... By "snowpack" I meant continuous snowcover. Snow here generally melts within days. If we get the right conditions we certainly can sustain continuous snowcover, this past February was a perfect example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Long Island (outside of the pine barrens) can support a couple of species of palm. Nothing massive like you'd see in places like California, but some of the shorter understory kinds you'd find in the swamps in the south can survive our area's climate. Ehh, they don't count. Just like Lake effect. I guess that's what I meant-something that would look like a palm tree. They can survive here in Austin with occasional below freezing temps, but I doubt they could survive in a NYC climate. Same with the bugs and "critters" that I've already seen... yeesh, my first summer in the South should be interesting. I've already seen a beetle/mosquito "thing" sprawled across half of my bedroom window, before this cold snap happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The rainforest itself would likely thrive at ridiculous heat islands such as Kennedy or LaGuardia Airports...whose distorted climate records have very much skewed people's perceptions of reality, including those of a good percentage of those who forecast the weather on tv and over the radio...leading to decades of inaccuracy & misrepresentation. Most of the state's populous resides in NYC's (slightly) distorted climate. I wouldn't say it skewed people's perception of reality, it is their reality. As a Queens native, 80+ degree lows are more "normal" to me than subzero lows. Ehh, they don't count. Just like Lake effect. I guess that's what I meant-something that would look like a palm tree. They can survive here in Austin with occasional below freezing temps, but I doubt they could survive in a NYC climate. Same with the bugs and "critters" that I've already seen... yeesh, my first summer in the South should be interesting. I've already seen a beetle/mosquito "thing" sprawled across half of my bedroom window, before this cold snap happened. I've gotten mosquito bites in the dead of winter while living in Queens. The bugs never fully go away. Even here, I saw a outside spider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I've gotten mosquito bites in the dead of winter while living in Queens. The bugs never fully go away. Even here, I saw a outside spider Can't say I've ever come across that rite of passage... Although my jellyfish bites in the summer growing up are quite numerous. Those f**kers sting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I've gotten mosquito bites in the dead of winter while living in Queens. The bugs never fully go away. Even here, I saw a outside spider This anecdotal evidence is just great and is as irrelevant as it can get. I listed days the ground was well covered with snow in this area and you told me the snow melts in a few days and then turned to palm trees & insects...and this *presumes* that somehow I am accepting the assumption that "The subtropical vs continental argument is really a snowpack argument."...the snow melts even quicker in the western High Plains...but their climate is unquestionably continental...no reasonable person would call them sub tropical...or, since the lack of moisture is obvious...arid or desert like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Can't say I've ever come across that rite of passage... Although my jellyfish bites in the summer growing up are quite numerous. Those f**kers sting. I've never been stung by a jellyfish, luckily lol. Snakes and large spiders are probably my biggest fear though, if I lived in TX I'd probably be paranoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I've never been stung by a jellyfish, luckily lol. Snakes and large spiders are probably my biggest fear though, if I lived in TX I'd probably be paranoid.Jellyfish hurt. Even through wetsuits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Subtropical, and it's true by definition. Here's a definition of subtropical from one of those internet dictionary sites: 1. bordering on the tropics; nearly tropical. 2. pertaining to or occurring in a region between tropical and temperate; subtorrid; semitropical. So then this 20th century climatologist from Europe comes along and decides that he himself has the requisite understanding to go about arbitrarily drawing bright line distinctions around the globe as to where these various climate zones can be found. Am I contending that he is not at liberty to do so? Of course not. But for you to say "it's true by definition"...truth & definition are two vastly different concepts. A truth is an incontrovertible fact; a definition is simply something someone uses to describe or characterize something...and two different people are very likely to see things differently. It is a fact that sound moves at a little over 700 mph. However, one may say that "sound moves very fast"....but relative to the speed of light...sound moves at a veritable glacial pace. The Koppen System is like this...the subjective opinion of one man and something that most assuredly should not be regarded with any great reverence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 This anecdotal evidence is just great and is as irrelevant as it can get. I listed days the ground was well covered with snow in this area and you told me the snow melts in a few days and then turned to palm trees & insects My mosquito comment had nothing to do with the subtropical/continental discussion, I don't know how I managed to quote you in that, it wasn't my intention. ...and this *presumes* that somehow I am accepting the assumption that "The subtropical vs continental argument is really a snowpack argument."...the snow melts even quicker in the western High Plains...but their climate is unquestionably continental...no reasonable person would call them sub tropical...or, since the lack of moisture is obvious...arid or desert like. The rate at which the snow melts in the High Plains, and Long Island for that matter, is irrelevant to continuous snow cover in Europe. I never really disagreed with you, I merely stated why the continental and subtropical climate zones are divided the way they are under Köppen's system. I couldn't care less what these zones are named, but I do find the -3C/European snowpack argument interesting, and while I haven't looked too far into how it relates to the climate of the eastern U.S., it does seem to have at least some merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I am notoriously slow to pass out compliments...but you have done an excellent job of forecasting this winter PB. Pam. Thank you very much. Meteorology is like a golf swing the second you think you have a handle this , it all breaks down , you shank one and everyone boo s . So let's hope I have 1 good drive left. Then it's my short game that's really abysmal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Pam. Thank you very much. Meteorology is like a golf swing the second you think you have a handle this , it all breaks down , you shank one and everyone boo s . So let's hope I have 1 good drive left. Then it's my short game that's really abysmal. I'm more the tennis type...though Caddyshack makes my top 20 list... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Why does the Pazzo vs the end of winter debate happen every year? It's annoying and tiresome. This is a guy that said nyc has a tropical environment lol It is as much a certainty as the wild March weather. Baseball is on now, Allsnow. Baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Chances are we will hit 50 F in April at some point before the 30th... Chances are good of 45 between now and Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Was driving this evening it looked like January out there. I've never seen so much deep snowcover this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Dont argue about 60 degrees . It's irrelevant . That's not the fight. The original fight was spring was coming in March. The EPO was going and staying positive Winter was over and now there is no 10 day below normal We got to 70 last Dec 22. 60 In march is irrelevant. Will march finish below normal ? Will we have another shot at snow ? Will prolonged warmer weather have to wait until April ? Does winter continue for 3 more weeks ? The SST s and models say yes..... Don't let anyone move the goal post. A stray 60 or 2 is like. T ÷××s on a bill. Meaningless ...... April 1st you can have your spring but there is winter weather ahead before this is done. We know that 60 degrees isn't the goalpost since last March made it above 60 and we finished -4.8.In fact, several Marches with 60 degree readings finished with a below normal average temperature at NYC. The colder March signal has been obvious for a while now so that won't be a surprise. But the interesting thing is the trough for the later part of the month that also has been advertised in the Euro and CFS weeklies going back into February. I am not making the call that a stray 60 degree day isn't possible in this below normal average temperature March. You always have to allow for that one day before cold fronts where the SW flow gets it done. But there are no 60's showing up for the next week to ten days so far in the guidance for NYC. The last week of March features average highs of 53-55. Now a return of the trough for the Northeast would drop the mean highs below those levels. So I think that it's too early to rule out the possibility that we don't reach 60 before the month is over. But the main story is that making 60 won't take away form the month finishing below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 We know that 60 degrees isn't the goalpost since last March made it above 60 and we finished -4.8.In fact, several Marches with 60 degree readings finished with a below normal average temperature at NYC. The colder March signal has been obvious for a while now so that won't be a surprise. But the interesting thing is the trough for the later part of the month that also has been advertised in the Euro and CFS weeklies going back into February. I am not making the call that a stray 60 degree day isn't possible in this below normal average temperature March. You always have to allow for that one day before cold fronts where the SW flow gets it done. But there are no 60's showing up for the next week to ten days so far in the guidance for NYC. The last week of March features average highs of 53-55. Now a return of the trough for the Northeast would drop the mean highs below those levels. So I think that it's too early to rule out the possibility that we don't reach 60 before the month is over. But the main story is that making 60 won't take away form the month finishing below normal. Great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Anther cold morning with a low here of 12 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Great post Thanks. NYC stayed below 60 in 2013 on a smaller monthly departure than 2014. NYC....March 2014........monthly departure....-4.8.......monthly high......66 NYC....March 2013........monthly departure....-2.4.......monthly high......59 and just for some contrast NYC...March 2012........monthly departure....+8.4......monthly high.......78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Was driving this evening it looked like January out there. I've never seen so much deep snowcover this late in the season. Agree. Felt like january this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I will not post the Euro day 11 -15 Euro ensembles as the one I get are from a pay site , I will only tell you , they could not look better . -EPO -AO -NAO +PNA The heights are connected across the pole with the trough STUCK underneath in the east . Whatever comes out of the N branch during the 20th - 31st time frame will cut off and as JB say will use the warm air from the South to deepen . We are not done . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I will not post the Euro day 11 -15 Euro ensembles as the one I get are from a pay site , I will only tell you , they could not look better . -EPO -AO -NAO +PNA The heights are connected across the pole with the trough STUCK underneath in the east . Whatever comes out of the N branch during the 20th - 31st time frame will cut off and as JB say will use the warm air from the South to deepen . We are not done . Kind of a punch to the nuts that the -NAO might come in mid-late March, but if a strong vort comes underneath us, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Kind of a punch to the nuts that the -NAO might come in mid-late March, but if a strong vort comes underneath us, look out. The cool thing about it is the historical aspect. If we get another snow storm this late in the season, we'll start challenging March records. There are obvious doubts about us even seeing frozen late into March but odds will be much greater than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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