PB GFI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I am going for another spring where the first NYC 70 degree reading gets pushed back to April like the last 2 years. First 70 degree readings in NYC since 1980: 2014.....4-11 2013....4-8 2012....3-8 2011....3-18 2010....3-19 2009....3-7 2008....4-10 2007....3-14 2006....3-10 2005....4-6 2004...3-27 2003...4-15* 2002...3-30 2001...4-9 2000...4-6 1999...3-18 1998...3-27 1997...4-7 1996...4-12 1995...3-15 1994...3-23 1993....4-19* 1992....4-10 1991...3-28 1990...3-13 1989...3-17 1988...3-24 1987...3-8 1986...3-19 1984...4-26* 1983...4-23* 1982....4-16* 1981....3-29 1980....4-13 Dont argue about 60 degrees . It's irrelevant . That's not the fight. The original fight was spring was coming in March. The EPO was going and staying positive Winter was over and now there is no 10 day below normal We got to 70 last Dec 22. 60 In march is irrelevant. Will march finish below normal ? Will we have another shot at snow ? Will prolonged warmer weather have to wait until April ? Does winter continue for 3 more weeks ? The SST s and models say yes..... Don't let anyone move the goal post. A stray 60 or 2 is like. T ÷××s on a bill. Meaningless ...... April 1st you can have your spring but there is winter weather ahead before this is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Dont argue about 60 degrees . It's irrelevant . That's not the fight. The original fight was spring was coming in March. The EPO was going and staying positive Winter was over and now there is no 10 day below normal We got to 70 last Dec 22. 60 In march is irrelevant. Will march finish below normal ? Will we have another shot at snow ? Will prolonged warmer weather have to wait until April ? Does winter continue for 3 more weeks ? The SST s and models say yes..... Don't let anyone move the goal post. A stray 60 or 2 is like. T ÷××s on a bill. Meaningless ...... April 1st you can have your spring but there is winter weather ahead before this is done. You keep changing the goal posts Paul. First, it was a 10-15 day period of -15. Then it was a 10 day period of -10. Now it's 10 day below normal. Which is it? I think we'll see a month between -2 and +2 in terms of deviation, and no periods greater than 10 days with each day having a greater than -10 departure (as well as of course hitting 60 at least once, 70s I agree are probably a stretch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 You keep changing the goal posts Paul. First, it was a 10-15 day period of -15. Then it was a 10 day period of -10. Now it's 10 day below normal. Which is it? I think we'll see a month between -2 and +2 in terms of deviation, and no periods greater than 10 days with each day having a greater than -10 departure (as well as of course hitting 60 at least once, 70s I agree are probably a stretch). 10 days of minus 10 was the the forecast. Winter is not over is the forecast. March will be below normal is the forecast . We get another shot at snow is the forecast. I called for March to below N on page 5 10 days ago. I said the POS EPO would be transient 10 days ago. I put 2 3 4 week forecast out and they are all here on case they fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 If the gfs is right we will snow into April Because the long-range GFS never has a cold bias... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Four times in 65 years, or essentially one in every 16.25 years. Out in the rural areas...especially over 500' feet in N. Jersey, Westchester, and Fairfield...April snows are pretty common...Litchfield County in CT has regular April snows...Norfolk, near the Massachusetts border...averages about 8 inches of snow in April. Long Island has seen very little April snow recently...I measured 3/10ths of an inch last April 16th...and we had about 5.5 inches a few hours before April on March 31st. Before that you would have to go back to early April 2003 which saw a 6 inch storm...April 1997 saw the area get the remnants of that Boston blizzard with a couple of inches...April 1996 was amazingly snowy on Long Island...there were two snowstorms out here that April...3 inches on the 8th...then 12 more inches on the 10th. Then you would have to go back to April 19, 1983...when we had about 3 inches...and April 6, 1982...the 11 inch blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Because the long-range GFS never has a cold bias...We are taking the 18z op gfs as gospel in here now? In the long range no less? Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Why does the Pazzo vs the end of winter debate happen every year? It's annoying and tiresome. This is a guy that said nyc has a tropical environment lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 We are taking the 18z op gfs as gospel in here now? In the long range no less? Lmao Who took it as gospel? Be specific. The trolling is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Who took it as gospel? Be specific. The trolling is over.The people who were posting about what the 18z gfs was showing in the long range? "Snow threats the next 3 weeks"? "Snow and cold through April". 384 hours out? Really? I thought that belonged in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Why does the Pazzo vs the end of winter debate happen every year? It's annoying and tiresome. This is a guy that said nyc has a tropical environment lol Subtropical, and it's true by definition. That's not saying that NYC's climate is the same as Jacksonville's. Anyway, end of that, there's a banter thread to argue that ad nauseum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I don't have a dog in this fight and don't have any scientific experience, but in 52 years, and from my days working on fishing boats, I can tell you when March is likely to be warm or cold. And this one looks a lot like a cold one. In the 80's I would be fishing by now. Most of the 2000's March and even April have been too cold for good fishing. Even May has been cold. May 2013 I was in Maine and it was in the 30's and snowing in someplaces, Mem day weekend! prior years I was fishing and even swimming in Maine by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Chances are we will hit 60 in March at some point before the 31st. Chances are we will hit 50 F in April at some point before the 30th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The people who were posting about what the 18z gfs was showing in the long range? "Snow threats the next 3 weeks"? "Snow and cold through April". 384 hours out? Really? I thought that belonged in the banter thread One person...ONE...posted that IF the gfs was correct, it would snow in april. Snow threats were being discussed within the pattern, long before this 18z run of the GFS came out. Ive given you numerous chances, but you are flat out lying about posts. It has to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Subtropical, and it's true by definition. That's not saying that NYC's climate is the same as Jacksonville's. Anyway, end of that, there's a banter thread to argue that ad nauseum... Mr. Koppen caused a lot of problems with that extremely ill conceived characterization...it's "true" only in the sense that a climatologist decided to call it that...the phrase "sub-tropical" has no established boundaries or norms beyond what Mr. Koppen decided to pull out of his hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Seeing the ensembles re-building the pattern adds credence to the colder March idea, I have no idea where these other thoughts are coming from. It would be nice if there was something posted to back up those thoughts, but there isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Subtropical, and it's true by definition. That's not saying that NYC's climate is the same as Jacksonville's. Anyway, end of that, there's a banter thread to argue that ad nauseum... This happens every year? Sheesh, I'm one of those who disappears after the last snowstorm each year, unless there is a hurricane coming. I turn the AC on in late May and don't shut it off til Oct. I have no tolerance for the heat. This seems like a pointless debate to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Seeing the ensembles re-building the pattern adds credence to the colder March idea, I have no idea where these other thoughts are coming from. It would be nice if there was something posted to back up those thoughts, but there isn't El Nino seasons are often back loaded and can be cold well into the spring. The April 7, 2003 6-8" snow event was coming off a moderate Nino. That it's finally "showing up" makes a cold spring more likely. And wet down here, which TX still needs greatly after the Nina streak over the last few years. I went to see Lake Travis 2 weekends ago, and was shocked at how low the water levels still are and how many exposed boat docks there are way above the water line despite the decent enough rain we've had. Recovering from droughts in the South is a multi-year process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Mr. Koppen caused a lot of problems with that extremely ill conceived characterization...it's "true" only in the sense that a climatologist decided to call it that...the phrase "sub-tropical" has no established boundaries or norms beyond what Mr. Koppen decided to pull out of his hat. But it is accepted, just like the Norwood scale for baldness..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 But it is accepted, just like the Norwood scale for baldness..... I moved to Long Island a while back...and no will ever convince me I reside in a sub tropical location...to me, it is silliness. The area's climate is modified continental, end of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 In the TX thread, the latest MJO thread was posted and it's definitely very active, expected to go to the edge of the chart at phase 7 in the coming days. If some cold air/blocking can be had in the Northeast, there might still be a good snow event or two. And obviously tons of rain from the fueled STJ. Too bad the Nino had to show up so late and couldn't break through the EPO, CA could've used the rain and the parade of storms could've started weeks earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 El Nino seasons are often back loaded and can be cold well into the spring. The April 7, 2003 6-8" snow event was coming off a moderate Nino. That it's finally "showing up" makes a cold spring more likely. And wet down here, which TX still needs greatly after the Nina streak over the last few years. I went to see Lake Travis 2 weekends ago, and was shocked at how low the water levels still are and how many exposed boat docks there are way above the water line despite the decent enough rain we've had. Recovering from droughts in the South is a multi-year process. Wow, that is impressive (not in a good way). Also, good point about the El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I moved to Long Island a while back...and no will ever convince me I reside in a sub tropical location...to me, it is silliness. The area's climate is modified continental, end of story. To be more precise, Long Island lies in the warm sub section of modified continental known as warm summers / short & moderately cold winters. North of say Albany or so...the other region takes over...and it is known as warm summers / long & cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Did anyone anywhere say it wouldn't hit 60 degrees in March? It's like there's a raging fake argument happening against no one. It will in all likelihood hit 60 degrees. It will also in all likelihood be colder than average for the month. Some people accept that and are willing to provide the backup to support it. If your call is that it will be below normal but NYC will squeak out a 60 degree day here or there I don't think you'll meet any resistance on that call and this bizarre three page back and forth can end If anyone thinks otherwise make an actual call as to why it will be warm or there will be no more winter weather. lol, apparently no one listened to your post, but your point is well taken. March is a transition month. It will in all likelihood hit 60 (or higher) and it's likely there will be at least one more chance at snow. The question is on which end of the extreme do we lean, and I think the winning bet as of now is the colder side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I moved to Long Island a while back...and no will ever convince me I reside in a sub tropical location...to me, it is silliness. The area's climate is modified continental, end of story. The true northern extremities of legitimate sub tropical climate in eastern N. America would be the Tidewater of VA...maybe the Delmarva Peninsula...or even the marshes of extreme SE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 To be more precise, Long Island lies in the warm sub section of modified continental known as warm summers / short & moderately cold winters. North of say Albany or so...the other region takes over...and it is known as warm summers / long & cold winter. I think the official definitions are outdated as well and obviously are over-generalized, i.e. Austin, TX is in the subtropical zone as well but summers here are very hot and winters here are short, with less than 1" of snow on average per year. We're also the dividing line between more arid West Texas and humid East Texas. Plenty of people plant palm trees here and they survive, but they don't grow in the wild, probbaly due to the soil characteristics and tendency to catch cold snaps like these. Up by NYC has even more very localized climo characteristics such as the seabreeze, where SWFEs, clippers, etc tend to blow up, where the marine layer kills thunderstorms and more that it's nearly impossible to really classify the whole area. The NYC area is possibly the most changeable climo spot in the lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Because this board is ridiculous. Subjective...and a little discourteous, to be candid...especially to the long term regulars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 I think the official definitions are outdated as well and obviously are over-generalized, i.e. Austin, TX is in the subtropical zone as well but summers here are very hot and winters here are short, with less than 1" of snow on average per year. We're also the dividing line between more arid West Texas and humid East Texas. Up by NYC has even more very localized climo characteristics such as the seabreeze, where SWFEs, clippers, etc tend to blow up, where the marine layer kills thunderstorms and more that it's nearly impossible to really classify the whole area. The NYC area is possibly the most changeable climo spot in the lower 48. Well you have a dry line in Texas where to its west...sort of the point at which Gulf of Mexico moisture loses its influence...maybe in the area just west of Midland / Odessa...its practically an Arizona like desert climate...El Paso, for example, sees very little rainfall each year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Chris the last 6 weeks has been called perfectly here Don't worry. We got ths I am notoriously slow to pass out compliments...but you have done an excellent job of forecasting this winter PB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Well you have a dry line in Texas where to its west...sort of the point at which Gulf of Mexico moisture loses its influence...maybe in the area just west of Midland / Odessa...its practically an Arizona like desert climate...El Paso, for example, sees very little rainfall each year. Severe weather season should be more fun here than Long Beach at least. Although North Texas has more tornadic activity than down here (although it's far from uncommon, the F5 Jarrell tornado in 1997 was about 30 miles north of downtown Austin), we have lots of hail and straight-line wind events. We're also called "flash-flood alley". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Because the long-range GFS never has a cold bias... I guess you dont look at the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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