End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015

[PB GFI]

Chris this is what you are missing.

I love the summer. I love baseball . I hate the cold .

all of that irrelevant in a model thread.

I am here to recognize patterns. That's all.

[rygar]

You guys need to make solid, numerical preductions about the rest of the month.  That's it.  Bickering will stop with actual forecasts presented.

[BxEngine]

Basically any post that conveys anger or accuses trolling from any suggestion that the season is changing. It's a problem here EVERY year, and only on this board.

Post them.

[pazzo83]

You guys need to make solid, numerical preductions about the rest of the month. That's it. Bickering will stop with actual forecasts presented.

I say KNYC will hit 60 sometime before April 1.

PB says a 10+ day period averaging. -15 departure from normal in the 2nd half of the month.

Fair?

[pazzo83]

Post them.

See strongbad above.

[BxEngine]

See strongbad above.

Pointing out trolling posts isnt anger about the change of seasons

Got any real posts to show this "major" problem?

[PB GFI]

I say KNYC will hit 60 sometime before April 1.

PB says a 10+ day period averaging. -15 departure from normal in the 2nd half of the month.

Fair?

And I think you could see a day of 60. But it will in between a cold pattern.

That's what your missing. Your not getting a week of 10 above. You are gona get a week of 10 below.

That's where u and I differ. But yes I think the 10 day period is 10 BN

[pazzo83]

Pointing out trolling posts isnt anger about the change of seasons

Got any real posts to show this "major" problem?

If I really cared I'd tell you I would look later, but honestly it doesn't bother me.

[Strongbad]

I say KNYC will hit 60 sometime before April 1.

PB says a 10+ day period averaging. -15 departure from normal in the 2nd half of the month.

Fair?

 

Pazzo - sorry if you took what I typed to heart. I just cannot fathom why you are getting so worked up about some posts about continuing cold here... PB has been very strong this year in his forecasting and debating him now seems tedious. Why not keep your doubts to yourself unless you can back them up with scientific reasoning. Saying Spring is coming and that it will hit 60F is not scientific. It's obvious to everybody here.

[pazzo83]

Pazzo - sorry if you took what I typed to heart. I just cannot fathom why you are getting so worked up about some posts about continuing cold here... PB has been very strong this year in his forecasting and debating him now seems tedious. Why not keep your doubts to yourself unless you can back them up with scientific reasoning. Saying Spring is coming and that it will hit 60F is not scientific. It's obvious to everybody here.

No problem, but why are you getting worked up by that suggestion? The scientific reasoning is that the EPO has a lessening effect on our temps through March, evidence of which I posted earlier in the thread if you bothered to read it.

[Strongbad]

No problem, but why are you getting worked up by that suggestion? The scientific reasoning is that the EPO has a lessening effect on our temps through March, evidence of which I posted earlier in the thread if you bothered to read it.

 

I did read it and it makes perfect sense. Having said that, we really have been in an anomalous pattern for the past month and a half. Do I expect 30 more continuous days below freezing? Absolutely not - we aren't living in an Ice Age. But I would not be surprised if the EPO can still produce a couple more night time snow threats.

[pazzo83]

I did read it and it makes perfect sense. Having said that, we really have been in an anomalous pattern for the past month and a half. Do I expect 30 more continuous days below freezing? Absolutely not - we aren't living in an Ice Age. But I would not be surprised if the EPO can still produce a couple more night time snow threats.

I would be shocked if we didn't see more than a T of snow for the rest of the month.

That said, a pattern that brought prolonged -10 to -15 departures in Feb will not yield the same outcome in late March.

[Strongbad]

I would be shocked if we didn't see more than a T of snow for the rest of the month.

That said, a pattern that brought prolonged -10 to -15 departures in Feb will not yield the same outcome in late March.

 I second this, which is why I used "night time" in my posting. Day time snow threats late in March and April aren't worth thinking about until the day before as they are very rare in the NYC immediate metro area.

[SnoSki14]

I would hope we hit 60 sometime this month. I can't think of many March's where that didn't happen at least once.

I don't know how high we got last March but I do remember it being chilly overall.

[Strongbad]

I would hope we hit 60 sometime this month. I can't think of many March's where that didn't happen at least once.

I don't know how high we got last March but I do remember it being chilly overall.

East Brunswick hit 60 or above 5 times last March. On the 11th and 12th you were a degree or two away from 70. There were 6 50 degree days and a whole bunch of 40 and 30 degree days.

[SnoSki14]

East Brunswick hit 60 or above 5 times last March. On the 11th and 12th you were a degree or two away from 70. There were 6 50 degree days and a whole bunch of 40 and 30 degree days.

Thanks I thought so.

[Allsnow]

East Brunswick hit 60 or above 5 times last March. On the 11th and 12th you were a degree or two away from 70. There were 6 50 degree days and a whole bunch of 40 and 30 degree days.

That many? I remeber March being cold and below avg. I believe nyc was -3 for the month. Hit 60 once early on in the month.

[doncat]

That many? I remeber March being cold and below avg. I believe nyc was -3 for the month. Hit 60 once early on in the month.

March here last year had a -5 degree temp departure and still managed five 60+ degree days also.

[Mophstymeo]

March here last year had a -5 degree temp departure and still managed five 60+ degree days also.

I just remember March and April being dreary. Had to keep the heat on until mid-April.

[doncat]

I just remember March and April being dreary. Had to keep the heat on until mid-April.

Yeah the night of April 16th had 0.6" of snow here..highest amount so late for this station.

[Allsnow]

March here last year had a -5 degree temp departure and still managed five 60+ degree days also.

 

Really wow…i don't remember that many 60 degree days last march...

[Strongbad]

I just remember March and April being dreary. Had to keep the heat on until mid-April.

Sorry as I don't know where you are on the island, but for Islip March 2014 featured  6 50 degree days  (starting around mid-month) and 3 60 degree days (also around mid-month). The rest of the month basically featured below average temperatures. As for April, most of the month was actually around average temperatures (high 50s to mid 60s) with just 4 days in the 40s. 

 

Maybe this year will be different/colder - I sure as heck don't know.

[PB GFI]

I would hope we hit 60 sometime this month. I can't think of many March's where that didn't happen at least once.

I don't know how high we got last March but I do remember it being chilly overall.

You could easily hit 60 inside a cold pattern and below normal month.

The entire forecast is. Is the month above or below and is there a 10 day of minus 10 or so being modeled .

The answer is yes.

So the original argument was spring was coming in March. And winter was over tat has been chopped to well if we hit 60 that's ok.

The pattern is showing you it does not want to let up on the colder departures in the LR and that's the forecast.

[bluewave]

I am going for another spring where the first NYC 70 degree reading gets pushed back to April like the last 2 years.

 

First 70 degree readings in NYC since 1980:

 

2014.....4-11

2013....4-8

2012....3-8

2011....3-18

2010....3-19

2009....3-7

2008....4-10

2007....3-14

2006....3-10

2005....4-6

2004...3-27

2003...4-15*

2002...3-30

2001...4-9

2000...4-6

1999...3-18

1998...3-27

1997...4-7

1996...4-12

1995...3-15

1994...3-23

1993....4-19*

1992....4-10

1991...3-28

1990...3-13

1989...3-17

1988...3-24

1987...3-8

1986...3-19

1984...4-26*

1983...4-23*

1982....4-16*

1981....3-29

1980....4-13

 

[NorthShoreWx]

I say KNYC will hit 60 sometime before April 1.

PB says a 10+ day period averaging. -15 departure from normal in the 2nd half of the month.

Fair?

 

There have been 4 Marchs in the past 40 years that failed to hit at least 60 at KNYC:

 

2013 - 59

2001 - 57

1984 - 58

1980 - 59

[NorthShoreWx]

Yeah the night of April 16th had 0.6" of snow here..highest amount so late for this station.

 

4/19/1983?

[pazzo83]

There have been 4 Marchs in the past 40 years that failed to hit at least 60 at KNYC:

2013 - 59

2001 - 57

1984 - 58

1980 - 59

So 36 that have. That's 90% of the time. Guess that call is lookin pretty good.

[Jb1979]

So 36 that have. That's 90% of the time. Guess that call is lookin pretty good.

 

Did anyone anywhere say it wouldn't hit 60 degrees in March? It's like there's a raging fake argument happening against no one. It will in all likelihood hit 60 degrees. It will also in all likelihood be colder than average for the month. Some people accept that and are willing to provide the backup to support it. If your call is that it will be below normal but NYC will squeak out a 60 degree day here or there I don't think you'll meet any resistance on that call and this bizarre three page back and forth can end

 

If anyone thinks otherwise make an actual call as to why it will be warm or there will be no more winter weather.

[doncat]

25/6 degree split here today....pretty impressive for March 6th.

[bluewave]

25/6 degree split here today....pretty impressive for March 6th.

 

We tied the record low at JFK and EWR from 2007.