pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Yes but it has happened plenty of times in the past along with snow in April. I'm getting kind of tired of people making these types of logical errors. Yes, it has happened before. A handful of times in the nearly 150 year climatological history of NYC, making it a one in 10 or 20 year phenomenon. Do you realize how rare that is? The chances of a snowstorm in NYC (let's say > 6") after March 20th are nearly negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 What was the date last year that we got a dusting of snow very late in the season? It was the second night of Passover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 since 1950 NYC has seen at least a two inch snowfall in 1956, 1957, 1982, 2003...the blizzard of 1982 stands out as the greatest April snowstorm on record for snow and cold...April 2003 was another all snow mid day event...1956 and 1957 was wet snow and rain... Four times in 65 years, or essentially one in every 16.25 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Look at Uncle's post. It works out to once every 4 years or so. That's not really rare. -EPO can keep the snow chances around. Last March's -EPO regime kept winter in the Southern MidAtlantic until late March. It's about once every 5 yrs for measurable snow and probably 15-20 for 6"+. The former is around the same probability of accumulating snow in the deep south in any given winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Warmup just vanished on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Warmup just vanished on the GFS Link, image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The Gfs would bring seasonable to slightly below temps during the "warm up". Regardless it will still feel relatively warm compared to the cold of the past several weeks but we're not talking walking outside in shorts and a t-shirt either. The nights will still be chilly to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The Gfs would bring seasonable to slightly below temps during the "warm up". Regardless it will still feel relatively warm compared to the cold of the past several weeks but we're not talking walking outside in shorts and a t-shirt either. The nights will still be chilly to cold. In about 10 days, the avg high in NYC reaches 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 since 1950 NYC has seen at least a two inch snowfall in 1956, 1957, 1982, 2003...the blizzard of 1982 stands out as the greatest April snowstorm on record for snow and cold...April 2003 was another all snow mid day event...1956 and 1957 was wet snow and rain... And April 9th-10th of 1996 for NJ and LI. We had 8" around here. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/09-Apr-96.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 And April 9th-10th of 1996 for NJ and LI. We had 8" around here. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/09-Apr-96.html Again, for much of NJ. April 9th, 2000: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/09-Apr-00.html April Fool's day of 1997: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1997/31-Mar-97.html Pretty big event for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Again, for much of NJ. April 9th, 2000: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/09-Apr-00.html April Fool's day of 1997: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1997/31-Mar-97.html Pretty big event for some. Definitely makes sense for you guys getting more April snow, since it is typically so elevation or proximity-to-the-ocean dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 That average sure but some people here lust after snow and cold like some kind of sick fetish and love to twist things to seem like we are getting locked in to a freaking ICE AGE! And they love it. I work outside and want nothing more than this to END. How do these snow freaks cope? DO they have plows and crews on call to always dig them out? Are they shut-ins who just look out the window all day? I cant grasp how some people love the brutal cold and the snow. Its hell for the average working man. I actually enjoy walking in the cold and snow. I sit at my office desk during regular workdays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 What was the date last year that we got a dusting of snow very late in the season? It was the second night of Passover. April 15-16, 2014. Trace at NYC, but just outside the city, the ground was coated. Some photos: http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoapril2014a.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Isotherm, on 05 Mar 2015 - 11:54 PM, said: Again, for much of NJ. April 9th, 2000: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/09-Apr-00.html April Fool's day of 1997: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1997/31-Mar-97.html Pretty big event for some. How about April 2003? That was a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Some stats for the 1900-2014 period (115 years) regarding late-season snowstorms (after March 15): 4" or more: 18 (approximately 1 every 6.4 years) 6" or more: 11 (approximately 1 every 10.5 years) 8" or more: 5 (approximately 1 every 23 years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Some stats for the 1900-2014 period (115 years) regarding late-season snowstorms (after March 15): 4" or more: 18 (approximately 1 every 6.4 years) 6" or more: 11 (approximately 1 every 10.5 years) 8" or more: 5 (approximately 1 every 23 years) so....something exciting 17% of the time, and higher for the burbs. Additionally....probably a bunch of near misses where the model runs in advance are pretty exciting. Sounds to me like we will be sweating something out and / or getting something a good 35-40% of the time from mid March onward.. Not too bad at all. Lets hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 And I hope marsplex and pazzo83 jackpot the storm. . And me too of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 okay...there's a start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 In about 10 days, the avg high in NYC reaches 50F.Exactly and by March 31, the average highs are into the 50's. When people say "it's getting cold!!" Cold relative to what? Lol it's as if like I said before, some people think March is the new january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I'm getting kind of tired of people making these types of logical errors. Yes, it has happened before. A handful of times in the nearly 150 year climatological history of NYC, making it a one in 10 or 20 year phenomenon. Do you realize how rare that is? The chances of a snowstorm in NYC (let's say > 6") after March 20th are nearly negligible.The other factor now and a huge one is the sun, I know some people say it's not a factor until april but it is. Reality is that we have the sun working against us in a huge way and that sun angle effect just increases from here on out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Don't look at the Euro weeklies if you like warm weatherOld man winter is getting ready to exit stage right, the curtains are getting ready to be drawn down and the fat lady is standing at the microphone warming up her vocal cords, tic toc, tic toc...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Lol it's as if like I said before, some people think March is the new january Dude it sure does feel like it tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 11.7F here in Dobbs Ferry. It can and will snow in mid-late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Euro weeklies continue with the -EPO into early April. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/03/05/ecmwf-says-ridging-continues-through-march/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Old man winter is getting ready to exit stage right, the curtains are getting ready to be drawn down and the fat lady is standing at the microphone warming up her vocal cords, tic toc, tic toc...... I have 11" of snow in the 5 days since you claimed winter was over. If you cant handle people discussing potential winter weather, STOP POSTING. Its that simple. No more straw men. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 April 15-16, 2014. Trace at NYC, but just outside the city, the ground was coated. Some photos: http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoapril2014a.html Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The Warm up is muted AGAIN it lasts about 5 days and that is it . ( which was opined here 2 weeks ago ) and can be found on the 1st 5 pages ) . Here comes POS PNA NEG EPO again . The trough will be back in the east by day 11 and you are looking at a possible 10 to 15 day stretch of 15 below normal . So if your average H should be in the mid 40`s , you end up in the mid 30`s and by the end of the month your highs should be close to 50 , and you will not sniff that . All of this is cold enough for snow if something comes along through the flow . - EPO has the same effect on the pattern in March , you force the jet off Asia ( where it is cold ) over the pole ( where it is cold ) a POS PNA means that low level cold air is forced through the lakes into the NE . This is not hard . No one is calling for 0 or 10 , but highs In the mid 30`s and lows in the mid 20`s will make sure you don`t forget winter is not over . GET OVER IT , The pattern dictates the weather , not probability and not ones frustration with cold weather . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Warm up muted AGAIN it lasts about 5 days and that is it . ( which was opined here 2 weeks ago ) and can be found on the 1st 5 pages ) . Here comes POS PNA NEG EPO again . The trough will be back in the east by day 11 and you are looking at a possible 10 to 15 day stretch of 15 below normal . So if your average H should be in the mid 40`s , you end up in the mid 30`s and by the end of the month your highs should be close to 50 , and you will not sniff that . All of this is cold enough for snow if something comes along through the flow . - EPO has the same effect on the pattern in March , you force the jet off Asia ( where it is cold ) over the pole ( where it is cold ) a POS PNA means that low level cold air is forced through the lakes into the NE . This is not hard . No one is calling for 0 or 10 , but highs In the mid 30`s and lows in the mid 20`s will make sure you don`t forget winter is not over . GET OVER IT , The pattern dictates the weather , not probability and not ones frustration with cold weather . ThisNo one wants it to get warmer more than me. I have softball season starting, $80 million worth of construction projects at work that are way behind schedule because of this crap and I'm having a house built that I need to move into by the end of April. but since this is a thread to talk about the actual upcoming weather and not fantasyland you have to be honest when looking at the pattern. it looks to me like a short period of possibly seasonal weather and then back into the relative freezer again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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