MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We haven't had a major system have we? Incorrect the -EPO/+PNA were very favorable for delivering constant cold but the +AO in particular didn't allow us to cash in on many major storms. The city east got extremely lucky with the New England blizzard while just to the west we got shut out. Who cares about big snowstorms. Moderate snowstorms are just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Miss with both storms on the euro for next week. Another run, another solution by the Euro. It is becoming a weenie model.When you saw the GFS and GEFS wanted no part of this ever, run after run it was a huge red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 salty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This winter has ended up being very solid and if we get another 3-6" it will just reinforce that notion. We're getting close to 30" with some already over, weeks of snow cover, brutally cold temps, and a huge comeback from December, majority of January. Had the AO correlation worked out we'd probably have just as much snow as last year along with the brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 5 days out the euro has been terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 5 days out the euro has been terrible two days out you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This winter has ended up being very solid and if we get another 3-6" it will just reinforce that notion. We're getting close to 30" with some already over, weeks of snow cover, brutally cold temps, and a huge comeback from December, majority of January. Had the AO correlation worked out we'd probably have just as much snow as last year along with the brutal cold. We would have been crushed if the AO and NAO worked out this winter. 5 days out the euro has been terrible Euro has been terrible really close to an event ( Juno ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 There would of been a lot of supressed tracks if the NAO was negative all winter IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 There would of been a lot of supressed tracks if the NAO was negative all winter IMO. I think our area would have been crushed with Juno if we had a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think our area would have been crushed with Juno if we had a -NAO.When you have west based -nao, Greenland blocking you risk suppression so it's give and take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No model has been stellar this winter. Some have nailed a storm and missed badly on others. IMO, it's hard to write off a threat so many days out this winter. Just two days ago, most had written tomorrow off as a more wet than white cutter. Now those same people are arguing about how many inches of snow will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We would have been crushed if the AO and NAO worked out this winter. Euro has been terrible really close to an event ( Juno ) True, It has become hard to take serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro has become like the baseball pitcher that needs a win to get the fans back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro has become like the baseball pitcher that needs a win to get the fans back. It'll get lucky with the recurve of some unraveling Cat 2 this summer, and all will be well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Eventhough the Euro lost the Miller B today, the NWS recently bumped up the chances for snow in NYC on Tuesday night and Wednesday to 40%. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Eventhough the Euro lost the Miller B today, the NWS recently bumped up the chances for snow in NYC on Tuesday night and Wednesday to 40%. Interesting.Alberta Clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 0z GGEM still has the miller b threat. Skims LI and hits SNE. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The miller B threat looks interesting. We're going through some major changes in the teleconnections so we're bound to see something going on. If it's not the miller B then it's the early March storm the Gfs has, which is currently shown to be a big time flooding cutter and a disaster if it verified. However cutters have trended weaker over time like this weekend and it's way too far out in fantasy land to speculate. Eventually the warmth and rains will come though the gfs is still quite cold in the LR once you take out 1-2 days with the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nice Miller A snowstorm next weekend for the area on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Pattern for the next ten days is very active on virtually every model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nice Miller A snowstorm next weekend for the area on the GGEMLets start a thread and get the snowfall maps up tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lets start a thread and get the snowfall maps up tonight Don't be sarcastic Pattern for the next ten days is very active on virtually every model Yes it does look really active and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lets start a thread and get the snowfall maps up tonight 12-18" on a line from I-78 through Manhattan along Canal, cutting up closer to Delancey, across the Williamsburg Bridge through Brooklyn, lollies of 24. Heaviest snow rate exactly between 3z and 8z. Boston gets 60 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12-18" on a line from I-78 through Manhattan along Canal, cutting up closer to Delancey, across the Williamsburg Bridge through Brooklyn, lollies of 24. Heaviest snow rate exactly between 3z and 8z. Boston gets 60 and rain. Yes Boston would get 60" from rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yes Boston would get 60" from rain Haha, this year I wouldn't be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Haha, this year I wouldn't be shocked. Would love if we got 12-18 24 lollies, and its pouring rain in boston Revenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I can see the very cold and snowy pattern still locked into around 3/ 16-18 /2015, then maybe a slow pattern shift to warmer. Pattern strongly supports a MECS or better ? snowstorm next weekend, not a cutter. Anybody agree with these thoughts? I think March is a -10 to -12 month and 20-30 inches of snowfall my best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I don't agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015022100&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=213.33333333333334 FWIW ENS still have a nice storm signal for Weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015022100&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=213.33333333333334 FWIW ENS still have a nice storm signal for Weds ens.gif So does the 06z GFS. The coastal low needs to strengthen more quickly or it's going to slide out to sea. The GFS has been consistently showing this feature and is starting trend a little stronger with it along with a (slightly) more northerly track. Still, you can't help but look at this upper air pattern and not get a little excited. There is plenty of room for the trough to come around and swing negative, giving the Mid-Atlantic the snowstorm it deserves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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