Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 And now you see wave 2 getting colder . ( WHICH will now have snow on the front end of it ) . So as people keep buying 2 - plus inches of rain , this poster has told you many times in this pattern , these SW love to come south as they get closer and see the low level cold air . This being further S means its probably weaker and leaves a bigger piece behind for WAVE 3 . Not only does wave 1 snow ( 4 - 6 at KNYC ) , which was 1st posted on last Sunday . This is getting interesting as the NAM says it may snow on the front of wave 2 and then we have to see how much is left behind for wave 3 which has the markings of a cold press coming into SLP . The reports of winters death are greatly exaggerated . MT/PB. Wave 2 . The CPC had it abnormally cold & wet in the east on their March 1 -10 outlook 5 days ago; they are very seldom wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Warm surges are hard to come by with snow all over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Sound's icey...never seen that here before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 And now you see wave 2 getting colder . ( WHICH will now have snow on the front end of it ) . So as people keep buying 2 - plus inches of rain , this poster has told you many times in this pattern , these SW love to come south as they get closer and see the low level cold air . This being further S means its probably weaker and leaves a bigger piece behind for WAVE 3 . Not only does wave 1 snow ( 4 - 6 at KNYC ) , which was 1st posted on last Sunday . This is getting interesting as the NAM says it may snow on the front of wave 2 and then we have to see how much is left behind for wave 3 which has the markings of a cold press coming into SLP . The reports of winters death are greatly exaggerated . MT/PB. Wave 2 . Upton has it approaching 50 degrees on Wednesday even up in Rockland county with heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Upton has it approaching 50 degrees on Wednesday even up in Rockland county with heavy rain Yep its possible , but hang in there . There may be a thump on the front with this . There is rain with wave 2 . But we would want to see it weaker so the energy left behind would be stronger for wave 3 . Wait until Monday and see if this starts to cool or look more strung out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yep its possible , but hang in there . There may be a thump on the front with this . There is rain with wave 2 . But we would want to see it weaker so the energy left behind would be stronger for wave 3 . Wait until Monday and see if this starts to cool or look more strung out . With the screaming flow, I just don't see a really strong s/w cutting into the great Lakes region. There's nothing to slow the energy down right now and without an amped up s/w, it won't cut like the GFS and Euro have been showing. I see wave 2 as more of a SWFE that will bring the baroclynic zone for wave 3 in a potential favorable position for wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 With the screaming flow, I just don't see a really strong s/w cutting into the great Lakes region. There's nothing to slow the energy down right now and without an amped up s/w, it won't cut like the GFS and Euro have been showing. I see wave 2 as more of a SWFE that will bring the for wave 3 in a potential favorable position for wintry weather. Right , these have trended further South The NAM is the most aggressive with the front end . We do need to pull the baroclinic zone then wave 3 will be stronger and this precip will be further N . As it is this is getting interesting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 We have seen the further N solutions trend S and the S solution come further N since late Jan . I am really liking the potential bookend threats here . ( Although I have loved tomorrow`s 4 to 6 at KNYC ad nauseam ) So forgive me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 We have seen the further N solutions trend S and the S solution come further N since late Jan . I am really liking the potential bookend threats here . ( Although I have loved tomorrow`s 4 to 6 at KNYC ad nauseam ) So forgive me . What's also very interesting is the NAO trends. It looks as if it wants to go neutral right around the time wave 3 pops out towards the coast. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 What's also very interesting is the NAO trends. It looks as if it wants to go neutral right around the time wave 3 pops out towards the coast. Interesting. I like the pos PNA better . Should argue this to get pulled further N . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 You kind of want the cutter to hang back so the next wave has a chance to amplify. You don't want it to push the boundary too far to the east otherwise the following wave is an offshore deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I like the pos PNA better . Should argue this to get pulled further N . That's actually not a bad look at all for the east coast if you're looking for a s/w to amplify and deliver a nice bout of wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 You kind of want the cutter to hang back so the next wave has a chance to amplify. You don't want it to push the boundary too far to the east otherwise the following wave is an offshore deal. Yes, but this is where the NAO trending neutral can be very beneficial. It may be just enough to slow everything down and give the s/w room to consolidate and amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I like snow to rain with the middle system and rain to snow with the third system. All in all several inches of snow with lots of rain in between, and some ice. Going to be one big mess with frozen ground and deep snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS gives like a foot plus to Delmarva and extreme SJ with the 3rd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 We have seen the further N solutions trend S and the S solution come further N since late Jan . I am really liking the potential bookend threats here . ( Although I have loved tomorrow`s 4 to 6 at KNYC ad nauseam ) So forgive me . Now that we are into March with shorter wavelengths, wouldn't that argue that the pattern that trended all of these favorable back in January/early-mid February when he had long wavelengths, may not have the same result this time around with different wave spacing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Now that we are into March with shorter wavelengths, wouldn't that argue that the pattern that trended all of these favorable back in January/early-mid February when he had long wavelengths, may not have the same result this time around with different wave spacing? I think wave 3 is the last in the series of these SW in the pattern . We will moderate once past day 10 . But we have 5 to 6 days of this left in this pattern . The Sun Mon SW looks to be working out , I think the THRS SW has a chance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I think wave 3 is the last in the series of these SW in the pattern . We will moderate once past day 10 . But we have 5 to 6 days of this left in this pattern . The Sun Mon SW looks to be working out , I think the THRS SW has a chance . I tend to agree. I think Thursday will be it before we move to a spring pattern. Makes me want to watch in this even more closely as pattern changes can really go out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 CMC continues weaker with the 2nd wave. More so than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 HECS for Cape May on the 3rd wave I believe, on 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I must say that it's rare for us to benefit on such a wave because usually the boundary gets pushed too far or it becomes anafrontal. So at this point it could go either way the gfs would drop a few inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Upton has it approaching 50 degrees on Wednesday even up in Rockland county with heavy rain Check out the wave 2 thump and ICE for you guys on the EURO . Hour 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 European appears to be slightly colder at the start of Tuesday wed time frame but QPF is spotty on the east side at 84 hr when the temperatures are still cold enough..Afterwards it warms up and it rains but it is a lot less rain then previous runs.. No Third wave on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 European appears to be slightly colder at the start of Tuesday wed time frame but QPF is spotty on the east side at 84 hr when the temperatures are still cold enough..Afterwards it warms up and it rains but it is a lot less rain then previous runs.. No Third wave on the Euro ? The 3rd Wave it is in VA the Delmarva and SNJ . There is a wave , it is just S on the Euro . ( for now ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 ? The 3rd Wave it is in VA the Delmarva and SNJ . There is a wave , it is just S on the Euro . ( for now ) This is a frontal boundary pushing south all it is on the ECM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This is a frontal boundary pushing south all it is on the ECM.. Front.jpg front2.jpg front3.jpg Does that site also have Euro and ensemble 500 mb anomaly charts for the Northern Hemisphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Check out the wave 2 thump and ICE for you guys on the EURO . Hour 90Not as warm as the gfs, but it's the euro, it's hard to get excited for the euro this year, as you well know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Does that site also have Euro and ensemble 500 mb anomaly charts for the Northern Hemisphere? Not that I am aware of ..It appears to be only the operational model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This is a frontal boundary pushing south all it is on the ECM.. Front.jpg front2.jpg front3.jpg Check out 114 then 120 . There is a wave there . If it was just a boundary it would just push SE . There is LP there . The Euro is weaker than the GFS . But that kink N shows me at least there is something on that front and the precip runs from the TENN valley at 114 to the Delmarva at 120 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Not that I am aware of ..It appears to be only the operational model Thanks. I mostly just see those snowfall charts . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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