IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GGEM is similar to the 00z GFS with around 2" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GGEM is similar to the 00z GFS with around 2" of rain.That should cause some nice flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The Euro shows a few inches possible on the front end on Tuesday but temperature profiles look marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Then a flip to rain late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Then more rain moving back in by early afternoon on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Looks like the rain has a tough time making it into Eastern sections on Wednesday but it's moderate rain from NYC N&W by Wednesday night with lighter rain to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Then some type of a potential flip back to snow or a mix on Thursday with temperature profiles all over the place. Warm BL and warm 925mb with colder 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Definitely some backend snows for Upstate NY and NE PA on Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 And then temps cool for the rest of the area on Thursday if precip can last long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro has 1.75"+ of QPF through 150hrs areawide. Most of that rain or a mix, but not all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Euro has 1.75"+ of QPF through 150hrs areawide. Most of that rain or a mix, but not all of it. Give me 30% of that as snow at a 10:1, 5-6"...Ill take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The whole argument is semantics. His are just the correct ones. A late August sun is equivalent to the sun during the 2nd-3rd week of April. Late late March is the same as around Sept 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I swear every year around this time it's that same sun angle convo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 When people talk about sun angle i think of Jerusalem and wonder if sun angle and whether the snow will stick is even a conversation. How many times we have to go thru this. If it snows hard enough it will stick even in july. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z JMA inline with the 00z GFS, 12z GGEM and 12z ECMWF on a very wet period ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z JMA inline with the 00z GFS, 12z GGEM and 12z ECMWF on a very wet period ahead. Ugly, we have ice jams and blocked storm drains galore up here. Combine that with frozen soil and we have flooding problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's going to get ugly for sure. I see the gfs still suggests another wave could affect us and that one would be more wintry. It depends on how much energy is left over as well as the SE ridging. In this case we would want a stronger ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looking forward to a natural car wash and ridding some of the road salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Gfs looks pretty interesting with the follow up wave mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looking forward to a natural car wash and ridding some of the road salt. I'm with you! Salt, moisture, n dirt don't sit well on Jeep frames! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS, GGEM and Euro are all quite wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS, GGEM and Euro are all quite wet. 1-2" LE of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 1.75"+ LE next five days on Euro. Some of that snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 1-2' of snow on the Euro for parts of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 1-2' of snow on the Euro for parts of the interior. yup...Monticello on north, and just north of Poughkeepsie on north sees a lot of accumulated snow over these 3 successive storms. Wouldn't need a shift too far south to get into some good action.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Third wave look nice on the gefs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Third wave look nice on the gefs and euro 2/3 waves ain't bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 2/3 waves ain't bad... 2nd wave is trending less amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Something to watch for next week. There are 3 waves , and ths is how this could play out . Wave 1 is Sun into Mond and still has a 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 look to it as the air mass in front of it should till be plenty cold . Here is how this gets tricky , Wave 2 is a pos tilted trough , it may cut but it should not explode that far west , it will still be the warmest of the 3 but if it stays weak it will cut further east . If it does ,it will drag the baroclinic zone further east and that will set up wave 3 which will come out of the Gulf and in my opinion ends up on OBX where I believe the arctic front will be. That could end being a colder set up than what was modeled today. Wave 2 will determine where wave 3 develops. Usually big storms love to follow the trough out as the pattern pulls back as SW s sometimes end cold periods with a bang. And now you see wave 2 getting colder . ( WHICH will now have snow on the front end of it ) . So as people keep buying 2 - plus inches of rain , this poster has told you many times in this pattern , these SW love to come south as they get closer and see the low level cold air . This being further S means its probably weaker and leaves a bigger piece behind for WAVE 3 . Not only does wave 1 snow ( 4 - 6 at KNYC ) , which was 1st posted on last Sunday . This is getting interesting as the NAM says it may snow on the front of wave 2 and then we have to see how much is left behind for wave 3 which has the markings of a cold press coming into SLP . The reports of winters death are greatly exaggerated . MT/PB. Wave 2 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 You are a true pro who does not model hug. And now you see wave 2 getting colder . ( WHICH will now have snow on the front end of it ) . So as people keep buying 2 - plus inches of rain , this poster has told you many times in this pattern , these SW love to come south as they get closer and see the low level cold air . This being further S means its probably weaker and leaves a bigger piece behind for WAVE 3 . Not only does wave 1 snow ( 4 - 6 at KNYC ) , which was 1st posted on last Sunday . This is getting interesting as the NAM says it may snow on the front of wave 2 and then we have to see how much is left behind for wave 3 which has the markings of a cold press coming into SLP . The reports of winters death are greatly exaggerated . MT/PB. Wave 2 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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