snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Equivalent of August sun in March? LolEnd of March, Yep, we have an October sun right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 End of March, Yep, we have an October sun right now lol March 31 is 101 days after the solstice, and 101 days before the solstice is September 11. Am I missing something? I mean, it doesn't make a huge difference... I've seen snow in April and May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 March 31 is 101 days after the solstice, and 101 days before the solstice is September 11. Am I missing something? I mean, it doesn't make a huge difference... I've seen snow in April and May. Stop lying. It can't snow in April. Btw do you have any links to the nam and gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 March 31 is 101 days after the solstice, and 101 days before the solstice is September 11. Am I missing something? I mean, it doesn't make a huge difference... I've seen snow in April and May. Ok, semantics, early September/late August sun, matter of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ok, semantics, early September/late August sun, matter of days I'm usually on the beach in late August. I expect feet and feet of seaweed, sunscreen, and clam fritters by the first week of March or your credibility is out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ok, semantics, early September/late August sun, matter of days You realize if temps are cold enough and the snows coming down at a good rate that it could snow in July and accumulate if it were possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm usually on the beach in late August. I expect feet and feet of seaweed, sunscreen, and clam fritters by the first week of March or your credibility is out the window.Back in 2012 it approached 90 degrees days after St. Patrick's Day in March, proves how strong the sun is late next month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 You realize if temps are cold enough and the snows coming down at a good rate that it could snow in July and accumulate if it were possible.Can it happen? Sure, would I count on a major snowstorm in late March/April? No. It will be gone the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sactown4 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 End of March, Yep, we have an October sun right now lol Where do you get that from? The UV index in late March is almost the same as in early October. Right now we have a November sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Back in 2012 it approached 90 degrees days after St. Patrick's Day in March, proves how strong the sun in late next month Although what you are saying is true , keep in mind I have seen 15 inches of snow in both Oct and April in NJ The pattern dictates if you snow and not the sun. We have seen 70 degrees around Xmas and blizzards In March , its all part of living on the coastal plain at 40 . So use the pattern to determine weather and not the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I mean, it doesn't make a huge difference... I've seen snow in April and May. You've seen snow in May?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm usually on the beach in late August. I expect feet and feet of seaweed, sunscreen, and clam fritters by the first week of March or your credibility is out the window. The sun angle's pretty close. Math? (late Aug/Early sept is approx 2.2-2.4 months from summer solstice, and late March /early April is like 2.5 to 2.7 months). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Although what you are saying is true , keep in mind I have seen 15 inches of snow in both Oct and April in NJ The pattern dictates if you snow and not the sun. We have seen 70 degrees around Xmas and blizzards In March , its all part of living on the coastal plain at 40 . So use the pattern to determine weather and not the sun. I agree with you, the sun at that point just complicates things if you are looking for snow that doesn't melt off the next day, which I like and I'm sure most here do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Declination of the sun right now is equivalent to mid-October. Here's a chart to reference: http://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/new-york?month=2 , or to calculate for your location: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/grad/solcalc/azel.html Usually we are arguing about this in reference to a late season snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 May need to start a thread for the nuke bomb cutter rain storm next week. Should get us heading towards warmer temps and a soaking rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 May need to start a thread for the nuke bomb cutter rain storm next week. Should get us heading towards warmer temps and a soaking rain storm Kind of ties in to my question here, http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45878-end-of-the-snowpack-predictions/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Something to watch for next week. There are 3 waves , and ths is how this could play out . Wave 1 is Sun into Mond and still has a 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 look to it as the air mass in front of it should till be plenty cold . Here is how this gets tricky , Wave 2 is a pos tilted trough , it may cut but it should not explode that far west , it will still be the warmest of the 3 but if it stays weak it will cut further east . If it does ,it will drag the baroclinic zone further east and that will set up wave 3 which will come out of the Gulf and in my opinion ends up on OBX where I believe the arctic front will be. That could end being a colder set up than what was modeled today. Wave 2 will determine where wave 3 develops. Usually big storms love to follow the trough out as the pattern pulls back as SW s sometimes end cold periods with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 May need to start a thread for the nuke bomb cutter rain storm next week. Should get us heading towards warmer temps and a soaking rain storm To be fair nuke bomb cutter is just a bit of an exaggeration. 0Z GFS has this as a 996mb until it gets into Canada. It's a good bit of rain but really not an impressive storm. It does manage to warm everyone up a bit which is nice but not as much as a true bigtime cutter would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm assuming that is primarily rain? Uh, that would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Something to watch for next week. There are 3 waves , and ths is how this could play out . Wave 1 is Sun into Mond and still has a 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 look to it as the air mass in front of it should till be plenty cold . Here is how this gets tricky , Wave 2 is a pos tilted trough , it may cut but it should not explode that far west , it will still be the warmest of the 3 but if it stays weak it will cut further east . If it does ,it will drag the baroclinic zone further east and that will set up wave 3 which will come out of the Gulf and in my opinion ends up on OBX where I believe the arctic front will be. That could end being a colder set up than what was modeled today. Wave 2 will determine where wave 3 develops. Usually big storms love to follow the trough out as the pattern pulls back as SW s sometimes end cold periods with a bang. Excellent analysis brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm assuming that is primarily rain? Uh, that would be bad. Indeed, those numbers do not include the snow for late this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Indeed, those numbers do not include the snow for late this weekend.That is one hell of a rainstorm if correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Wave 3 continues to look interesting. That's a rain to snow scenario on the Gfs and several inches of it if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Excellent analysis brother. Thank you my man . We just need a weaker 2 nd wave and then we have a shot b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ok, semantics, early September/late August sun, matter of days The whole argument is semantics. His are just the correct ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Can it happen? Sure, would I count on a major snowstorm in late March/April? No. It will be gone the next day So again, please stop discussing it. No one said anything about "counting on it", and whether its gone in a day or lasts until your May 3rd summer solstice doesnt matter, its a weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 A positive NAO, a negative PNA, an EPO,WPO bouncing along neutral and a MJO soaking in embalming fluid over the next 15 days, what else do we have working for us but a leftover warm stratosphere above eastern Canada? Any convection near the dateline which 'K,U' found can be correlated to an east coast trough/low a week later? Hope 'springs' eternal but we need miracles here! As of about March 10 sun will be high enough (min of 45deg altitude at 1pm) at our latitude to get some color if you can be out in it long enough. Bring it on I say, and oh yes---a surprise snowstorm is OK too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 A positive NAO, a negative PNA, an EPO,WPO bouncing along neutral and a MJO soaking in embalming fluid over the next 15 days, what else do we have working for us but a leftover warm stratosphere above eastern Canada? Any convection near the dateline which 'K,U' found can be correlated to an east coast trough/low a week later? Hope 'springs' eternal but we need miracles here! As of about March 10 sun will be high enough (min of 45deg altitude at 1pm) at our latitude to get some color if you can be out in it long enough. Bring it on I say, and oh yes---a surprise snowstorm is OK too! The AO is really positive too, it has just refused to go negative since November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The GFS has trended a bit more progressive over the last two runs since the big time rainstorm at 00z. The GFS still shows quite a bit of rain for the first wave but the second wave misses to the South. I would expect that to continue to shift around as the models struggle with where the boundary gets hung up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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