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End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015


Allsnow

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Huh ? There was 4 to 6 inches throughout the entire area of snow that changed over to FRZ then back to snow .

You were certain " cutters are gona cut " and we were going to rain . I argued that it was a frozen event and that it would trend colder

That is in no way a win for you ,but it was a bad bust from 5 days out . I can pull our posts .

Not picking on you , but please don`t you care claim victory after you were sure that was rain , and we said no .

4 to 6 changing to FRZ back to snow was what happened . You hyped rain .

This. He was so sure of it 3 days prior to the point of condescension.

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Did it not rain on Long Island?

 

 

I swear, saying rain around here during Winter is treated like saying the F word in Church.

There was 4 on the S shore and almost 6 in Laurel Hollow . There was no plain rain  on the N shore . Temps never got above 32 then it went back to snow 

 

You were hyping rain 4 days out .  Where are your posts  " saying cutters are gona cut "  ? and  this is " SET IN STONE " I  remember them all man 

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There was 4 on the S shore and almost 6 in Laurel Hollow . There was no plain rain  on the N shore . Temps never got above 32 then it went back to snow 

 

You were hyping rain 4 days out .  Where are your posts  " saying cutters are gona cut "  ? and  this is " SET IN STONE " I  remember them all man 

Forget it. Another thread down the tubes.

 

I ended up being correct about the mixing issues and that's all that matters. Even up by me, temps were warm enough that it completely ruined the snowgrowth. 

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I was so sure of mixing issues, and I ended being right. I always said that I wasn't sure if the city would change to plain rain. I said that Long Island would, and they did.

Look man . let me tell you what gets respect here . The ability to come on here and say I was wrong . When I %$^& up I say ok I F d up . It`s only weather . But Dan is spot on , you said " this is set in stone " . RAIN not mix man . 

 

You can never  recreate your forecast . We all know who has a cold or rain bias . No secrets here man 

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I was so sure of mixing issues, and I ended being right. I always said that I wasn't sure if the city would change to plain rain. I said that Long Island would, and they did.

You wrote that it's set in stone to be predominantly rain because all models agreed, just go back and read it and take a piece of humble pie. There's nothing wrong with following models but let's cut the absolutes out as models have trended away from big cutters all season. Of course it can still happen but for now I'd expect at least a more sheared out solution (not necessarily snow, but much less rain than models are depicting now)
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Forget it. Another thread down the tubes.

I ended up being correct about the mixing issues and that's all that matters. Even up by me, temps were warm enough that it completely ruined the snowgrowth.

Yea, correct me if I'm wrong, but without the 50/50 low, nothing to hold the high to the north in place, no -ao, no -nao, high scoots east, return flow. Plus the SE ridge is allowed to rear its ugly head with no -nao

No cold high locked in to the north, no 50/50 low, no -nao, no -ao, strong western Atlantic ridge, high moves east out into the Atlantic and we see return flow. Worst setup possible for a snowstorm for us

Even the 06z GFS which people were saying was a less amped up solution still had a lot of rain for the area and very little snow. Cutters gonna cut, just have to accept it. The Euro ensembles were all cutters.

We call this wishcasting...

No model shows more than a few inches on a front end dump and then all models and ensembles show some type of cutter. At three days out, this is pretty much set in stone given the fantastic agreement amongst the OP's and strong ensemble support.

The ridge is even stronger this run on the GFS and the energy is more amplified. The surface low goes to Louisville. This is not even close to being a solution that would bring mostly frozen to the area. Not even close. If you think this is not going to cut then you're just fooling yourself.

The NAM has a strong SE ridge, as do the other models, kiss of death right there, along with a bunch of other problems

I still like 2-4" or 3-5" on a front end dump, especially near Trenton where the precip arrives faster and is able to tap into a bit more cold air. Then grab your ankles because it's coming hard and fast.

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Way too early to worry about rain amounts when the models this winter have been wrong more than a few days out. That is not meteorology but model hugging.

To be fair, models have been wrong within twenty four hours at times. What I would look at is the overall pattern, which hasn't changed. The flow is still screaming. The PDO is in very firm positive territory and the EPO is pretty relentless because of it. We have lost the PNA Ridge, but that is about it. Unless a storm can really amp up, it's not going to be able to just cut into the middle of the country the way the models are showing. They take the path of least baroclynic resistance and without that strong negative tilt, they're not going to cut the way these models are showing. The flow is still screaming and the energy is having trouble consolidating.
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To be fair, models have been wrong within twenty four hours at times. What I would look at is the overall pattern, which hasn't changed. The flow is still screaming. The PDO is in very firm positive territory and the EPO is pretty relentless because of it. We have lost the PNA Ridge, but that is about it. Unless a storm can really amp up, it's not going to be able to just cut into the middle of the country the way the models are showing. They take the path of least baroclynic resistance and without that strong negative tilt, they're not going to cut the way these models are showing. The flow is still screaming and the energy is having trouble consolidating.

You have a point, with RNA, the flow will be very fast, but the SE ridge will also pop up again. The question will be where the gradient pattern sets up, is it south of us? Or up in New England?
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Yes totally agree it's best to look at the pattern, the models are used for guidance not the end result,

To be fair, models have been wrong within twenty four hours at times. What I would look at is the overall pattern, which hasn't changed. The flow is still screaming. The PDO is in very firm positive territory and the EPO is pretty relentless because of it. We have lost the PNA Ridge, but that is about it. Unless a storm can really amp up, it's not going to be able to just cut into the middle of the country the way the models are showing. They take the path of least baroclynic resistance and without that strong negative tilt, they're not going to cut the way these models are showing. The flow is still screaming and the energy is having trouble consolidating.

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