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End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015


Allsnow

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Well....at least there is a coastal and it's bringing it up the coast. Still looks like 4-6 inches if this were to verify, with very big snows in New England again ( and further south for those big snows than the 12z run)

okay, at least it looks like we'll still be in the game over the weekend and we'll see where it goes from there we all know how things can change radically and in this time range
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I have no problem with this run. I was worried about nothing coming up the coast ( as per the GFS). The euro holds serve with a coastal that brings a lot of snow everywhere north of the Connecticut/Mass border. What's that?...80-85 miles from NYC? We wouldn't need a huge shift, and we are 5+ days out still

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015022000&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=44

 

Mid-Week Storm

Road Block....coastal trend

 

 

watch the guidance today

if the trends hold

then the Euro track shown here

would be very legit -imo

over simplified???  maybe....but maybe not??? 

  V

\/   \/

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015022000/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_namer_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015022000/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_namer_7.png

 

WPC day5

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lhwbg_conus.gif

 

I like this threat for the Metro

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

IN THE EAST... FOCUS WILL BE ON INTERACTION BETWEEN INCOMING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
SE COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A MORE DEFINED SYSTEM NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY
WEDNESDAY

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Indices wouldn't support any major system. We're getting close to the end now and I think 2 weeks from now we'll be seeing much milder air either coming in or right on the horizon.

We may have one more moderate snow event before everything flips.

Gfs has been impressive as of late and is now trumping the Euro at every turn. It was also less amplified with tomorrow's system before the other models caught on.

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Indices wouldn't support any major system. We're getting close to the end now and I think 2 weeks from now we'll be seeing much milder air either coming in or right on the horizon.

We may have one more moderate snow event before everything flips.

Gfs has been impressive as of late and is now trumping the Euro at every turn. It was also less amplified with tomorrow's system before the other models caught on.

And still some parts of the area are well over  30 inches for the winter. Indices haven't been good at all for our area and we still had a good winter.

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Indices wouldn't support any major system. We're getting close to the end now and I think 2 weeks from now we'll be seeing much milder air either coming in or right on the horizon.

We may have one more moderate snow event before everything flips.

I'm not a big fan of using indicies to make a case for why a storm would or wouldn't occur. I think they are useful when trying to sniff out a pattern ahead of time that might be more favorable or unfavorable, but not once an actual system shows up on the models within a week.

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And still some parts of the area are well over 30 inches for the winter. Indices haven't been good at all for our area and we still had a good winter.

We haven't had a major system have we? Incorrect the -EPO/+PNA were very favorable for delivering constant cold but the +AO in particular didn't allow us to cash in on many major storms. The city east got extremely lucky with the New England blizzard while just to the west we got shut out.

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