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End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015


Allsnow

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This is the storm I was referring to, took place only a few days after the first one.

 

snowplot_2010_2_web.jpg

 

 

That map is a little deceiving.  We had 15" on 2/10/2010 out this way.

 

Here is the abridged version:

 

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

   SOUND BEACH           16.2   900 AM  2/11   NWS EMPLOYEE

   ROCKY POINT           15.6  1145 PM  2/10   PUBLIC

   HOLBROOK              15.4  1130 PM  2/10   NWS EMPLOYEE

   MOUNT SINAI           15.4   100 AM  2/11   NWS EMPLOYEE

   NORTH BABYLON         15.0  1230 AM  2/11   PUBLIC

   PORT JEFFERSON        15.0  1130 PM  2/10   PUBLIC

   COMMACK               14.7  1155 PM  2/10   PUBLIC

   NORTH PATCHOGUE       14.5   230 AM  2/11   PUBLIC

   SMITHTOWN             14.5  1200 AM  2/11   SKYWARN SPOTTER

   DEER PARK             14.0   700 AM  2/11   PUBLIC

   MELVILLE              13.5   700 AM  2/11   SKYWARN SPOTTER

   LINDENHURST           13.4   345 AM  2/11   SKYWARN SPOTTER

   MIDDLE ISLAND         13.4  1010 PM  2/10   NWS EMPLOYEE

   UPTON                 13.4   400 AM  2/11   NWS OFFICE

   HOLBROOK              13.0   120 AM  2/11   PUBLIC

   MILLER PLACE          13.0   830 PM  2/10   PUBLIC

   AMITYVILLE            12.5  1000 AM  2/11   PUBLIC

   STONY BROOK           12.4  1130 PM  2/10   SKYWARN SPOTTER

   SAYVILLE              12.2   800 AM  2/11   NWS EMPLOYEE

   DIX HILLS             12.1   800 AM  2/11   SKYWARN SPOTTER

   BAITING HOLLOW        12.0   410 AM  2/11   PUBLIC

   HAUPPAUGE             12.0   130 AM  2/11   PUBLIC

   SETAUKET              12.0  1100 PM  2/11   NWS EMPLOYEE

   CENTERPORT            11.7   700 AM  2/11   PUBLIC

   LAKE RONKONKOMA       11.7  1030 AM  2/11   PUBLIC

   ORIENT                11.5   700 PM  2/10   PUBLIC

   PATCHOGUE             11.5  1050 PM  2/10   NWS EMPLOYEE

   EAST NORTHPORT        11.3   650 AM  2/11   SKYWARN SPOTTER

   WEST ISLIP            11.1  1000 PM  2/10   NWS EMPLOYEE

   CENTEREACH            11.0   410 AM  2/11   NWS EMPLOYEE

   RONKONKOMA            11.0   900 AM  2/11   NWS EMPLOYEE

   MELVILLE              10.0   900 PM  2/10   SKYWARN SPOTTER

   ISLIP                  9.2   405 AM  2/11   FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

   SOUTHAMPTON            9.0   720 AM  2/11   PUBLIC

   SHIRLEY                8.9  1110 PM  2/10   PUBLIC

   CUTCHOGUE              8.5   830 PM  2/10   NWS EMPLOYEE

   MEDFORD                8.0  1100 PM  2/10   PUBLIC

   RIVERHEAD              8.0   400 AM  2/11   NWS EMPLOYEE

   HAMPTON BAYS           7.0   900 PM  2/10   NWS EMPLOYEE

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I saw the damage from that on LI, it was crazy. And to think, in Philly we got snow!

It was by far the worst wind event I remember at home next to Sandy. Trees and power lines were snapping everywhere- we really lucked out that the worst didn't coincide with high tides. Parts of LB had no power for a week. If I remember correctly, we were only under a wind advisory.
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It was by far the worst wind event I remember at home next to Sandy. Trees and power lines were snapping everywhere- we really lucked out that the worst didn't coincide with high tides. Parts of LB had no power for a week. If I remember correctly, we were only under a wind advisory.

 

Yeah ,that was tied for the second most impressive wind event for Long Beach after Sandy that I can remember.

 

Sandy #1

11/11/95, 3/13/10 #2

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Not familiar with 11/11/95 was that a storm onshore wind event? If it's the one I'm thinking about they had to plow ocean parkway from drifted sand big time

 

11/11/95 was probably the strongest cutter that I experienced living in Long Beach. The wind direction started SSE

and peaked SSW sustained around 50 and gusts to 75 mph right along the frontal passage. National blvd through the

west end lost power for 24 hrs with numerous trees and power lines blown down. It was very well forecast by the NWS

and they had a high wind warning out in advance.

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11/11/95 was probably the strongest cutter that I experienced living in Long Beach. The wind direction started SSE

and peaked SSW sustained around 50 and gusts to 75 mph right along the frontal passage. National blvd through the

west end lost power for 24 hrs with numerous trees and power lines blown down. It was very well forecast by the NWS

and they had a high wind warning out in advance.

That's the exact storm I was thinking of. I was 13 but remember lots of trees down in wantagh and the ocean parkway sand thing

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I think I know the answer to this but...what do you folks think the chances of this southern storm making that 100 mile jump north due to it intensifying faster than forecast and or phasing with that clipper in the midwest? The models keep bumping this storm northward. The low appears to be deepening quickly...6 mb in last 6 hours.

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I think I know the answer to this but...what do you folks think the chances of this southern storm making that 100 mile jump north due to it intensifying faster than forecast and or phasing with that clipper in the midwest? The models keep bumping this storm northward. The low appears to be deepening quickly...6 mb in last 6 hours.

First off if that were to happen, then we'd be talking about a massive model failure. The low is stronger though and further north according to the SPC page so a few ticks north are possible. The gfs is way off and shouldn't be used due to a much weaker, further SE initialization of the low. 

 

I still think a dusting is possible with a best case scenario of around an inch. If the best case scenario were to verify then it would be really good for SNJ especially around Atlantic City/Cape May who would get 6"+. 

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First off if that were to happen, then we'd be talking about a massive model failure.

While I agree with you, a massive model failure is not all that uncommon as of late. I could see a 50 mile northward jump, but I believe 100 would be pushing it. To be fair, 50 miles is within the standard of deviation for model error. I'd be more worried about the fifty mile jump and a more robust NW precip field. However, dew points and RH isn't great, so it would be a bit harder pressed to get meaningful precip into the area.

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What was the outcome in 2010??

 

There were three major snowstorm is February 2010...the first...seemingly the best remembered...even though it had the least impact in NYC...put down huge snows south & west of NYC...but from NYC north & east it was mostly dry.  The second event was a major snowstorm a few days later in the NYC metro area...though it was mostly during the daylight hours and urban areas like NYC itself had some rain mixed in...holding down accumulations...in the countryside it was mostly snow...I recall a strange break midway through...seeing about 8 inches out here in the morning...then the noon break...then seven more inches in the afternoon / early evening.  New England mostly missed it. 

The third storm, at the end of the month, was a rain to snow event with a bizarre track...the offshore Low hooked west and into LI Sound...bringing cold west winds to its south (over NYC & LI) and snow...but up over Connecticut...they had east winds (with the low moving to their south / the counterclockwise flow around low pressure) and there it was mainly rain. 

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