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End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015


Allsnow

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Lol I would go jumping for joy , although Newark Downtown, is starting to look better and better everyday.

Since they built the Prudential Center and redid NJ PAC things have improved slightly. As a NJ Devils season ticket holder I am forced to frequent that dump known as Newark. I feel relatively safe in the areas immediately surrounding the arena and down in the Neck which is Portuguese and like a completely different world. Don't go more than a mile or so in the wrong direction though.

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Since they built the Prudential Center and redid NJ PAC things have improved slightly. As a NJ Devils season ticket holder I am forced to frequent that dump known as Newark. I feel relatively safe in the areas immediately surrounding the arena and down in the Neck which is Portuguese and like a completely different world. Don't go more than a mile or so in the wrong direction though.

Yep, done it once and once only. Scariest feeling a human being can ever feel. Newark is just a disgrace to much of NJ considering how big the city is. Jersey City IMO is a much better city. Standard etc.

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Yep, done it once and once only. Scariest feeling a human being can ever feel. Newark is just a disgrace to much of NJ considering how big the city is. Jersey City IMO is a much better city. Standard etc.

 

Jersey City and Hoboken are just extensions of NYC, specifically Brooklyn, IMO.

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Already that big strong cutter the Gfs had has trended much weaker.

If you look at 156  you can see the attempt at a secondary . You can see the CAD signature showing up as that HP N of Maine

attempts to hold .

If the FROZEN Monday event can slow the pattern down a bit , it will hold that HP there and it will press .  f162.gif

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.10" is not a dusting.

True, I meant to say more than a trace. This storm reminds me a bit of that big SE snowstorm last year (the one that had that big mess in Atlanta) that models showed pretty much no precipitation for our area and the last minute it introduced a little and we got a surprise light snowfall (albeit very little)
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Not going to happen unless a -NAO develops.  Sucks that we didn't have a -NAO once again this winter. Most of the meteorologists did call for a -NAO winter in their winter outlooks.

 

And no offense intended, but that's why I largely ignore everyone's seasonal or even monthly outlooks.  Analog, pattern-recognition based forecasting is, at best, only slightly more accurate than climatology - the only exception I'm aware of that's a bit better than that, but still not anywhere near reliable, is Dr. Gray's seasonal Atlantic Basin tropical activity forecast.  And since deterministic models will likely never be accurate much beyond a week to 10 days, given the chaotic nature of the weather, the paucity of high quality global data inputs on a finer grid and in 3-dimensions, and the current limitations of our physical understanding of meteorology and the models which represent that understanding, I'll continue to not get worked up by deterministic forecasts or model output beyond a week - there are good reasons the NWS only forecasts out 7 days.  

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If you look at 156  you can see the attempt at a secondary . You can see the CAD signature showing up as that HP N of Maine

attempts to hold .

If the FROZEN Monday event can slow the pattern down a bit , it will hold that HP there and it will press .  f162.gif

The Euro is  further south and colder . HP pressing through into New England . Paints a HECS into DC 

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