SRRTA22 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Lol i'm just stating what i am seeing thats all It's slightly pivoting but the storm is really weak and it's moving east and getting ready for an E/NE shift..Not going to get us though but SNJ may see some flurries as well as far eastern Long Island... Thursday looks interesting with the storm coming out of the gulf and the one diving SE from Canada We know our southern system will move quick in this pattern but what about the northern system that dives south? I don't know much about how overall patterns work (ie; -NAO ect) I just know that they help slow systems down putting the east coast in good position but with a faster more progressive pattern in nature, would that northern system speed up in time for the southern one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Lol i'm just stating what i am seeing thats all I know......I just felt like being dramatic. You know, there is such a huge shortage of drama in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's slightly pivoting but the storm is really weak and it's moving east and getting ready for an E/NE shift..Not going to get us though but SNJ may see some flurries as well as far eastern Long Island... Thursday looks interesting with the storm coming out of the gulf and the one diving SE from Canada We know our southern system will move quick in this pattern but what about the northern system that dives south? I don't know much about how overall patterns work (ie; -NAO ect) I just know that they help slow systems down putting the east coast in good position but with a faster more progressive pattern in nature, would that northern system speed up in time for the southern one? No. We've seen this all winter and this is why we have not had a sizeable storm strike the eastern seaboard. Without the blocking, the Southern Stream s/w is out running the Northern Stream. A lack of blocking combined with a split flow over the Pacific has not allowed the energies to consolidate in time to give us a strong hit this winter. A negative NAO or negative AO allows the flow to slow down enough so that the energies can consolidate. Without these indicies on our side (more importantly what the indicies represent) , it's very hard to consolidate the energy so it strengthens in time to deliver us a strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Big difference in latitude between Calgary and NYC That's not that relevant for spring snow. Once you get past March 21, aggregate daily insolation is pretty constant with latitude in the N Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Lol i'm just stating what i am seeing thats all Batten down the hatches. A dusting is coming!. A dusting is coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No. We've seen this all winter and this is why we have not had a sizeable storm strike the eastern seaboard. Without the blocking, the Southern Stream s/w is out running the Northern Stream. A lack of blocking combined with a split flow over the Pacific has not allowed the energies to consolidate in time to give us a strong hit this winter. A negative NAO or negative AO allows the flow to slow down enough so that the energies can consolidate. Without these indicies on our side (more importantly what the indicies represent) , it's very hard to consolidate the energy so it strengthens in time to deliver us a strong storm. Downstream blocking certainly helps, but we haven't seen too many amped southern stream disturbances this season despite the negative EPO split flow regime. With a more active southern stream the probability of trough mergers would certainly increase, especially with the high frequency of deep northern stream PV anomalies embedded in northwesterly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Quiet quiet quiet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If only the northern stream was faster and phased in. Quiet quiet quiet GFS is coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 SWFE for Sunday-Monday ( looks all frozen for NYC northward ) and then a GLC which tried to transfer for midweek but failed to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 SWFE for Sunday-Monday ( looks all frozen for NYC northward ) and then a GLC which tried to transfer for midweek but failed to do so.How much qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Flooding rainstorm on the GFS Tuesday/Wednesday. 1.5"+ QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 How much qpf? Less than 0.25" LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 How much qpf? .10+ Not alot at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GGEM also has the massive cutter. Ice to rain on that run. We get a bit lucky with most of the very heavy rain over Upstate NY and New England. We get about an inch while areas to the North get closer to 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GGEM is similiar to the GFS in regards to both events. A little more QPF with the 1st event. GFS and GGEM tries to pop a little low near the coast with the midweek storm. GGEM is colder at the surface than the GFS is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Oh man cold suppression cutter warm cold suppression gotta be the nightmare scenario on here. Keep it cold and snowy or bring on an early spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GEFS has all frozen for Sun-Mon storm with more precip than the op. It's also a lot colder for the midweek storm. 32 degree line stays below NYC throughout the storm for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GEFS has all frozen for Sun-Mon storm with more precip than the op. It's also a lot colder for the midweek storm. 32 degree line stays below NYC throughout the storm for midweek. gotta look at the individuals especially this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Less than 0.25" LE. Glass half empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 .10+ Glass half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 How's the euro look for sun/mon and the mid week system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 00z Euro ensembles don't like the massive cutter idea. Most either redevelop the low or keep the system weak and more towards Western NY like the last storm. None of the members that redevelop the low deepen it in time to give us much snow, but Boston does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 New Nam has the low on the beaches of OBX, and GETS 1" up to about Asbury Park...shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 00z Euro ensembles don't like the massive cutter idea. Most either redevelop the low or keep the system weak and more towards Western NY like the last storm. None of the members that redevelop the low deepen it in time to give us much snow, but Boston does well. What about the Sunday night/Monday system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 New Nam has the low on the beaches of OBX, and GETS 1" up to about Asbury Park...shame. If only we had a neg nao. Beautiful looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What about the Sunday night/Monday system? Not enthusiastic in terms of moisture. I could see 1-3" with that system with Central NJ doing the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 12z NAM bumbed NW again for Thursday. I could see Central/Southern NJ and parts of LI picking up an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If the storm ends up stronger and more amped up they SNJ could actually do quite well. It's pretty close for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 A lot of mixing issues for the Carolinas with the mid-level warmth pushing all the way to the base of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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